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re: More good momentum in Michigan
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:06 am to Janky
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:06 am to Janky
quote:
They are coming out of the woodwork boys.
I’ve been a long time reader. But you gotta start posting some time. I’ve seen enough misinformation on this site, that I finally decided to post.
Edit: props to Scruffy for actually saying something of substance and not just name calling
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 10:08 am
2
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:07 am to rashman
quote:
I’ve been a long time reader. But you gotta start posting some time. I’ve seen enough misinformation on this site, that I finally decided to post.
Our savior is here! Finally, a true intellect to correct us and lead us out of our ignorant ways!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:09 am to Bunta
quote:
Our savior is here! Finally, a true intellect to correct us and lead us out of our ignorant ways!
Just debating dude. Not trying to save anyone. You can do with the info what you will.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:15 am to rashman
So alllll the polls that were way off in favor of Clinton in 2016 weren’t biased at all, just wrong. Got it.
But wait, a poll that shows Trump ahead?!? Biased!!! Trump supporter!!!
But wait, a poll that shows Trump ahead?!? Biased!!! Trump supporter!!!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:21 am to Eat Your Crow
quote:
So alllll the polls that were way off in favor of Clinton in 2016 weren’t biased at all, just wrong. Got it.
Not all what I said. In fact, a lot of the polls started swinging towards trump after the comey leak. Especially the battleground states. In a way, they were getting it right at the end for your boy. Trafalgar is biased because it’s run by one guy, a trump supporter. Bringing up other polls is irrelevant. I’m only talking about Trafalgar. IBD showed Trump gaining and I’ll give that credit, but no way for Trafalgar.
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 10:23 am
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:26 am to Clemsontigers02
quote:
Trump 47.7 Biden 45.3 (Trump +2.4)
My only question is, why isn't it 97-3? I would hate to have to contemplate how ignorant and misinformed the 45% really are.
I mean, Biden/Harris would be okay as an old-time SNL skit. But, what fool really wants those boobs to run our country?
This post was edited on 10/25/20 at 10:39 am
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:27 am to rashman
Thanks, CorrectTheRecord!
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:29 am to rashman
quote:
Not all what I said. In fact, a lot of the polls started swinging towards trump after the comey leak.
No, that was coincidental.
A lot of polls started publishing more correct information closer to the election because THAT IS THE ONLY DAY THAT ANY DATA EXISTS TO SHOW HOW CORRECT/WRONG THEY ARE.
shite, I hope some day the Republican candidate openly tells his/her supporters to lie to completely kill this silly push poll bullshite.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:34 am to gthog61
Interesting if correct. I hadn’t thought of that.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:36 am to rashman
The part that bothers me is not that all of these polls that show Biden favorably are wrong, it's that they KNOW they are wrong and still release them. They know their form of data collection is off, or just the data itself.
According to 538 polling averages, Biden leads by 10 points nationally.
He and Trump are basically dead even in Texas. Trump won in 2016 by 9 points, and he will win Texas by 6+ points in 2020.
Biden leads Trump by 2.5 points in Arizona. Trump won in 2016 by 3+ points, and he is going to win Arizona by around that same total this year.
Trump leads by 6 points in Nebraska. He won it in 2016 by 25 points, and he's going to win Nebraska by 20+ points.
Trump leads by 9 points in Kansas. He won Kansas by 20+ points in 2016, and it will be close to the same in 2020.
Trump leads by 6 points in Alaska. He won it by 15 points in 2016, and he's going to win Alaska by close to that number again this year.
Biden leads by 7 points in Michigan, 6.5 points in Wisconsin, and nearly 6 points in Pennsylvania; yet both campaigns are treating these three states as the most important of the entire election.
There are examples like this in basically every state. You would be hard pressed, as of now, to find me multiple states that Trump won't out-perform his polling on election day.
This election is going to be the kill shot for the vast majority of pollsters.
According to 538 polling averages, Biden leads by 10 points nationally.
He and Trump are basically dead even in Texas. Trump won in 2016 by 9 points, and he will win Texas by 6+ points in 2020.
Biden leads Trump by 2.5 points in Arizona. Trump won in 2016 by 3+ points, and he is going to win Arizona by around that same total this year.
Trump leads by 6 points in Nebraska. He won it in 2016 by 25 points, and he's going to win Nebraska by 20+ points.
Trump leads by 9 points in Kansas. He won Kansas by 20+ points in 2016, and it will be close to the same in 2020.
Trump leads by 6 points in Alaska. He won it by 15 points in 2016, and he's going to win Alaska by close to that number again this year.
Biden leads by 7 points in Michigan, 6.5 points in Wisconsin, and nearly 6 points in Pennsylvania; yet both campaigns are treating these three states as the most important of the entire election.
There are examples like this in basically every state. You would be hard pressed, as of now, to find me multiple states that Trump won't out-perform his polling on election day.
This election is going to be the kill shot for the vast majority of pollsters.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:45 am to Eat Your Crow
I like your confidence, and I hate posting this because I don’t want to saying anything mean to dash your hopes. But, just for example, you have Trump winning Arizona, but you should look at the early data and even ignore the polls. Biden is ahead in early voting in Marocopa county and the turnout is high. High turnout favors Biden. In 2016, Trump was ahead in early voting data. I’m sorry but it doesn’t look good for him, at least in Arizona. Even Travis county in Texas, a very blue county with Houston, has record breaking turnout.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:55 am to rashman
Biden is going to be up in EV because the Dems strategy was to do mail in voting. This year is different. Not sure what the results will be, but if the Dems weren’t up big now they’d have no chance.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 10:57 am to Clemsontigers02
Trump turning the black vote out
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:01 am to rashman
First of all, Biden isn't ahead in anything. Registered democrats might be outpacing registered republicans, sure. If Trump increases his latino vote % from 2016, it will be because a lot of registered democrats voted for him. This is especially true in states like Florida and Arizona.
Trump also won Marocopa County in 2016 by 3 points. Democrats are much more likely to vote early or vote by mail than republicans. Does higher turnout favor Biden in a state like Arizona? Yes, probably. However, just because early voting numbers are being smashed doesn't necessarily mean anything. There is going to be enthusiasm and turnout on both sides. A red wave on election day could easily push Trump to a victory.
Every single democrat presidential candidate in the last 5 cycles has received between 44 and 45% of the vote in Arizona. It's been remarkably consistent. The demographics are trending blue, but it is a ton of ground for a candidate like Joe Biden to make up in just four years.
Trump also won Marocopa County in 2016 by 3 points. Democrats are much more likely to vote early or vote by mail than republicans. Does higher turnout favor Biden in a state like Arizona? Yes, probably. However, just because early voting numbers are being smashed doesn't necessarily mean anything. There is going to be enthusiasm and turnout on both sides. A red wave on election day could easily push Trump to a victory.
Every single democrat presidential candidate in the last 5 cycles has received between 44 and 45% of the vote in Arizona. It's been remarkably consistent. The demographics are trending blue, but it is a ton of ground for a candidate like Joe Biden to make up in just four years.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:06 am to Clemsontigers02
The ones where Biden is ahead in early voting also show that the number of votes up has been cut into very thoroughly compared to 2016, meaning the support has dwindled.
Posted on 10/25/20 at 11:09 am to xxTIMMYxx
quote:
The ones where Biden is ahead in early voting also show that the number of votes up has been cut into very thoroughly compared to 2016, meaning the support has dwindled.
This is certainly the case in Florida.
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