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Started By
Message
Let's analyze a poll - Dems Have 14-Point Lead In U.S. House Races Nationwide,
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:19 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:19 pm
On Drudge the sensational link
Generic Ballot - 14 point Dem lead now.
The source - September 12, 2018 - Dems Have 14-Point Lead In U.S. House Races Nationwide, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Back Media Over Trump By Wide Margin
The Sample -
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 25%
Democrat 34%
Independent 33%
Other/DK/NA 8%
Gallup party breakdown for past year
Seems a bit fishy, but they did have HRC as high as +10 over DJT
Generic Ballot - 14 point Dem lead now.
The source - September 12, 2018 - Dems Have 14-Point Lead In U.S. House Races Nationwide, Quinnipiac University National Poll Finds; Voters Back Media Over Trump By Wide Margin
The Sample -
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 25%
Democrat 34%
Independent 33%
Other/DK/NA 8%
Gallup party breakdown for past year
Seems a bit fishy, but they did have HRC as high as +10 over DJT
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 12:25 pm
17
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:22 pm to DarthRebel
Hmmm, that’s a lot of independents. Means they know nothing, and turnout will determine everything, so yeah useless polls....
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:29 pm to DarthRebel
I bet about 10% of those Independents are actually Dems, pushing the Dem sample closer to 45%.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:43 pm to DarthRebel
Another poll released today by Economist/YouGov has the democrats with a +3 lead. The polls are all over the place, and eerily enough, they seem to be following the same trend the 2016 election polls followed.
So basically, no one has a goddamn clue how the elections are going to turn out.
So basically, no one has a goddamn clue how the elections are going to turn out.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:46 pm to DarthRebel
We'll wait and see but I have a very tough time believing that any population targeted with this level of indoctrination and propaganda will continue to vote for Trump and Trumpism.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:47 pm to DarthRebel
Polls are Fake.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 12:54 pm to DarthRebel
Is there a legit reason why Dems are always so over represented in these polls? Are there that many more Dems?
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:13 pm to DarthRebel
The senate and house elections are taking place in two different universes.
Control of the house is going to be decided in affluent suburbia and white college grads, especially suburban soccer moms, fricking hate Trump and too many republicans don't have a big enough of an independent profile to separate them from the party like a Will Hurd does.
Control of the senate is going to be decided in the Trumpiest parts of the country like red states Trump and democrats are bending over to talk about how they're not a liberal or they helped Trump this one time.
The GOP controls their destiny for the senate and they're likely to lose the house to democrats.
If there's a blue wave, the only thing protecting senate control for the GOP is how unbelievably bad the map was for democrats with bad timing.
Control of the house is going to be decided in affluent suburbia and white college grads, especially suburban soccer moms, fricking hate Trump and too many republicans don't have a big enough of an independent profile to separate them from the party like a Will Hurd does.
Control of the senate is going to be decided in the Trumpiest parts of the country like red states Trump and democrats are bending over to talk about how they're not a liberal or they helped Trump this one time.
The GOP controls their destiny for the senate and they're likely to lose the house to democrats.
If there's a blue wave, the only thing protecting senate control for the GOP is how unbelievably bad the map was for democrats with bad timing.
This post was edited on 9/12/18 at 1:15 pm
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:20 pm to DarthRebel
quote:
Generic Ballot
And why is this important?
So when the Democrats win 80 to 20 in blue districts and the GOP wins 52-48 in red districts Gallup can say the Dems still won with a 14-point lead in the generic ballot?
Generic ballots have little to no value. It just provides the media with a talking point to gas-light and suppress GOP turnout.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:23 pm to NeverRains
quote:
Another poll released today by Economist/YouGov has the democrats with a +3 lead. The polls are all over the place, and eerily enough, they seem to be following the same trend the 2016 election polls followed.
The only use for generic polls is media fodder. Other than that they are useless.
You have to pay for the good polls which the public really doesn't get to see. You know, polling at the district level to target voters and shape your message. Those are the good polls.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:27 pm to GumboPot
quote:
Generic ballots have little to no value
They do if they're high enough.
The generic ballot in 2006 was 11.5 for democrats and that was more than enough for a 31 seat wave in the house and 5 seat margin for control of the senate.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:29 pm to GumboPot
That's the same argument the left made in the last midterm, that because more votes were cast nationally for Democrats, it was "unfair" that the Republicans gained control of the House.
These are not national elections.
These are not national elections.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:36 pm to GumboPot
quote:
The only use for generic polls is media fodder.
2010 had a generic ballot of +9.4 in favor of republicans.
It lead to a tidal wave of a 65 seat gain in the house.
It needs to be at least 3-4 and below if the GOP has any prayer of keeping the house.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:38 pm to DarthRebel
A nationwide poll for House races is completely and utterly worthless.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:43 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Control of the house is going to be decided in affluent suburbia and white college grads, especially suburban soccer moms, fricking hate Trump
Bingo. 90% of this board acts like they've never met a woman in real life. The ones I know, almost all 35 and under, despise him. Not sure I could name more than 2 or 3 that would vote for him. That's going to put a damper on GOP votes from independents. The inroads Trump has made with lower-class whites and black males just simply aren't groups that vote in large numbers. Black male turnout is absurdly low, almost completely negligible in Potus elections, let alone midterms.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:44 pm to Antonio Moss
quote:
A nationwide poll for House races is completely and utterly worthless.
Nationally I would agree with you, but a generic poll for districts that are centered around the suburbs is absolutely useful.
Control of the house is going to be decided in the suburbs and Trump has significant and real problems there, hell the entire GOP does.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:51 pm to Muthsera
quote:
90% of this board acts like they've never met a woman in real life. The ones I know, almost all 35 and under, despise him. Not sure I could name more than 2 or 3 that would vote for him.
There is no bigger foil and enemy for liberal and moderate white women than Donald Trump.
He truly makes them go batshit crazy to a level America has never seen before.
Conservative white women are just marginally and barely better as sure they'll vote for him but never speak of it in public.
People think liberals melted so hard because hillary lost as it was her turn. No, it's because Donald fricking Trump won.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:52 pm to Sentrius
quote:
Control of the house is going to be decided in the suburbs and Trump has significant and real problems there, hell the entire GOP does.
Which is something I do not understand. The suburbs are what elected trump and what has he done to take that away.
He moved the needle his way on most. Hillary only moved the needle 1% for women.
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:52 pm to notslim99
quote:
House Races Nationwide, by notslim99
I bet about 10% of those Independents are actually Dems, pushing the Dem sample closer to 45%.
34% Dems + 10% of 33% is 45%?
Posted on 9/12/18 at 1:53 pm to Sentrius
I still don’t understand why they’re polling 34% Dem and 25% Republican. Of course that’s going to put the dems up.
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