re: Latest Updates: Russia-Ukraine Conflict.

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Critical for the Trump-Zelenskyy meeting ongoing is that Zelenskyy comes off as a beneficial partner, not just a beneficiary of aid.

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Note that Budanov is holding his notebook. By the way, where is Vance?

LINK

The problem before was more of, "Europe is treating the US as saps." which has been a fact for decades both in trade and military contribution to NATO.

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Yes, at no point has Ukraine actually reduced Russian refinery capacity below domestic demand.

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This one struck me as quite interesting. Some internet research shows that Russian refinery production is composed of:

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Gasoline production: ~41.1 million metric tons (~15.4% of processed crude)
Diesel production: ~81.6 million metric tons (~30.6% of processed crude)
The remainder: Consists of fuel oil (mazut), jet fuel, lubricants, and other heavier petroleum products or refinery losses.

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That's pretty different from the US which is:

"On average, U.S. refineries produce about 45% to 48% gasoline and 26% to 31% diesel/distillate fuel"

Russia is heavily a diesel producer, and they exported about half of it. On the other hand Russia has been tight enough on gasoline that at times in 2024 and 2025 they prohibited gasoline exports and still had some shortages.

Even if 30% of refining is down Russia still has plenty of diesel for domestic consumption. Gasoline is a different matter. Refineries can shift production to make more gasoline and diesel, but there is a limit to how much can be shifted. Maybe CitizenK can weigh in. Shifting refinery production may explain how they have eased the gasoline shortage (except in Crimea), but it is coming at a cost of diesel exports, and less efficient refinery operation.

Another point that is important - when you have several refineries down for repairs at the same time, that is a big problem. There are only so many people competent enough for many of these repairs. Some plants are just going to have to wait. And some vessels simply cannot be fixed. The same goes for compressors, turbines, and pumps. Those have to be replaced. With luck you can get them used. Without luck you are looking at 1-3 years for major equipment.

The same point goes for ship repair. When you have more than 100 ships that need repairs that is going to take a very long time. Because there are only so many people capable of doing that work. A lot of those ships are simply scrap now. And in any case the damage to Russia of cutting off fuel to Crimea far outweighs the value of those 100+ pretty crappy ships.

A German general in WW1 when asked about their ally Austria/Hungary famously said "we are fettered to a corpse". That pretty much summarizes Crimea for Russia. Ukraine would be foolish to send troops to take it. Just let Crimea bleed Russian resources.

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This one struck me as quite interesting. Some internet research shows that Russian refinery production is composed of:

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Interesting breakdown. Some depends on grades of crude oil being processed. US refineries are big on FCCs as a result of avgas for WWII, and gasoline for all rolling stock from trucks to tanks. Post WWII highways and suburbs were autocentric. Plus many naphtha reformers and light naphtha isomerization units. Later cokers to squeeze more gasoline out of the bottom of the barrel.

Russia seems to have built a lot of the same since 2000 in expansions and modernizations to cater to Euro markets. I am left wondering if less kerosene (jet fuel) because it goes into the diesel. That would make up a big chunk what is being sold as diesel.

The refinery I mentioned that I have for sale, separately treated its diesel and kerosene in hydrotreaters but shared a common stabilizer as it was all sold as ULSD. instead of 5,000 BPD of diesel sold, 8,000-10,000 BPD was sold as diesel. Its typical production was 59% Gasoline and 37% Diesel from light sweet local crude