Latest DEMOCRAT commissioned poll shows GOP Letlow leading Dem Davis by small margin

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Election Day is now just over five weeks away; and last week, we got our second snapshot of the U.S. Senate race between Julia Letlow and Jamie Davis. Like the first poll, the poll this month by Hart Research Associates shows Letlow with a four-point lead over Davis. However, with the split being 48 to 44%, there were far fewer undecided voters in this poll of 500 likely voters. LSU political science professor Robert Hogan says there is one important thing to note about this poll.

“This is a poll commissioned by the Democratic candidate, so that leads you to think that the actual result may not be as close as they’re trying to make it out to be,” Hogan noted.

However, Hogan says there is likely credence in these polls, given the fact that other Republican Senate candidates who would otherwise be coasting to victory find themselves in unusually competitive races.

“The fact that she is so tied to Trump, and the fact that Trump is viewed so negatively right now, especially by independent voters, this leads me to think that this result from these polls probably are a fair assessment of where voters stand,” Hogan explained.

Hogan says while it’s still likely that Letlow will ultimately win on November 3rd, these polls do create an opening for Davis to make this a competitive race.

“Just on its face value, I think this shows that the race is not a complete white-out for the Democratic candidate as some previous elections, at the state level, we have seen,” Hogan said.

The margin is within the poll’s 4.5% margin of error.

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