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Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:18 am to Homesick Tiger
quote:
You do think they are manipulated don't you?
To an extent, yes. Each poll indicates how many people they polled, then the breakdown from there. It would be easy for them to call as many as they need to to be able to talk to enough people where they could cherry pick which respondents to use for the poll.
Still, it’s unnerving as shite seeing them and completing the electoral map accordingly.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:18 am to TDsngumbo
You have to look at the internals to see where the polls are minipulated.
For instance, the most recent Marquette poll showing Biden up 5 in Wisconsin.
59% of the poll respondents are residents of Milwaukee or Dane Counties (Milwaukee and Madison).
Those are HEAVILY liberal counties.
BUT, they made up just 24% of the total Wisconsin vote in 2016. So, the poll oversamples the two liberal counties by roughly 35%. It's that simple.
Look at the Yougov poll relied upon by RCP. It shows Biden up 11 nationally. But, when you look at the internals, they polled 28% Rs; 39% Ds. They oversampled Dems by +11. Result is Biden +11. AND, then their polls shows Trump only getting 36% of Independents. That's absurd.
Any poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of Independents must be thrown out.
Look at the CNN poll used by RCP that shows Biden up 12. The internals refuse to identify the party representation of the 1000 polling respondents. *THAT* says everything.
IPSOS poll that RCP uses to show Biden +10. That poll oversampled Dems by 7 and shows Trump only getting 21% of independents. LOL. Again, you can throw out *any and every* poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of independents.
For instance, the most recent Marquette poll showing Biden up 5 in Wisconsin.
59% of the poll respondents are residents of Milwaukee or Dane Counties (Milwaukee and Madison).
Those are HEAVILY liberal counties.
BUT, they made up just 24% of the total Wisconsin vote in 2016. So, the poll oversamples the two liberal counties by roughly 35%. It's that simple.
Look at the Yougov poll relied upon by RCP. It shows Biden up 11 nationally. But, when you look at the internals, they polled 28% Rs; 39% Ds. They oversampled Dems by +11. Result is Biden +11. AND, then their polls shows Trump only getting 36% of Independents. That's absurd.
Any poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of Independents must be thrown out.
Look at the CNN poll used by RCP that shows Biden up 12. The internals refuse to identify the party representation of the 1000 polling respondents. *THAT* says everything.
IPSOS poll that RCP uses to show Biden +10. That poll oversampled Dems by 7 and shows Trump only getting 21% of independents. LOL. Again, you can throw out *any and every* poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of independents.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:18 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Holy shite we better fricking hope they’re wrong like last time
They're suppression polls, of course they're wrong.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:19 am to TDsngumbo
When you read/hear anything from the press you must start from the presumption that it's a lie. Their credibility is just a tad better than emails from a Nigerian Prince.
I've held this skepticism since the 1980s. It has prevented much needless anxiety.
I've held this skepticism since the 1980s. It has prevented much needless anxiety.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:20 am to TDsngumbo
The amount of republicans voting in each state compared to democrats is the only polling I care about.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:20 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
To an extent,
I don't consider polling 400 people in a state with a population of 4 million an extent, I consider that bullshite.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:21 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Still, it’s unnerving as shite seeing them and completing the electoral map accordingly.
you have Texas blue i hope. trump has no shot there according to some polls
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:22 am to Ex-Popcorn
quote:
For instance, the most recent Marquette poll showing Biden up 5 in Wisconsin.
59% of the poll respondents are residents of Milwaukee or Dane Counties (Milwaukee and Madison).
Holy shite are you serious!? That’s ridiculous!
quote:
Look at the Yougov poll relied upon by RCP. It shows Biden up 11 nationally. But, when you look at the internals, they polled 28% Rs; 39% Ds. They oversampled Dems by +11. Result is Biden +11. AND, then their polls shows Trump only getting 36% of Independents. That's absurd.
Any poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of Independents must be thrown out.
Look at the CNN poll used by RCP that shows Biden up 12. The internals refuse to identify the party representation of the 1000 polling respondents. *THAT* says everything.
IPSOS poll that RCP uses to show Biden +10. That poll oversampled Dems by 7 and shows Trump only getting 21% of independents. LOL. Again, you can throw out *any and every* poll that shows Trump getting less than 44% of independents.
Now THIS is the kind of talking me off the ledge I needed. Thank you for explaining that. Where do you find the internals of a poll?
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:23 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Talk me off this ledge because I don’t like it here. I’ll downvote myself
Your concern has been noted. Now jump.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:24 am to TDsngumbo
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:26 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
Where do you find the internals of a poll?
There is usually a link in whatever article is discussing a poll. if not, they always identify the polling outfit...you just have to google it.
One other point that is huge, IMO. Some of these polls take an hour or more to complete. I saw one of the big ones (can't remember off hand) that was 233 pages long and had 80+ questions. The only people on either side who are willing to waste that much time are the radicals. It does not give you a good sense of what the majority is thinking.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:26 am to TDsngumbo
i'm so concerned
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:26 am to TDsngumbo
quote:I think I’ve found your problem.
I looked at those posted on fivethirtyeight.com.
Try looking at polling firms that are actual polls and not propaganda.
Even fat arse Michael Moore said the polls are wrong.
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:27 am to TDsngumbo
nm. too late.
This post was edited on 10/30/20 at 9:28 am
Posted on 10/30/20 at 9:28 am to TDsngumbo
There is a 3.1 average gap in the swing state polls and it tightens each day. That’s dead heat or Advantage Trump.
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