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Is Venezuelan oil going to be a better pressure valve?

Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:23 am
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
40878 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:23 am
My research may be wrong.

But it looks like they HAVE more oil than Saudi, but PRODUCE way less than the combined Persian Gulf countries.

From what I have read here, Venezuela was a domino that needed to fall before Iran was tackled.

But Venezuela only produces 1.5 million barrels a day. That’s not even in the top five of barrels per day of any country.
I think the Persian states are around 25 bbl million per day.

I cannot remember which ceo said the following, but he said “the repatriation of oil companies is always a threat in Venezuela, so investment is not easy”.

With the Hormuz being such a problem, how quickly can Venezuela and possibly other countries provide relief? Will it happen in time?
Posted by Timeoday
Easter Island
Member since Aug 2020
24707 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:31 am to
Well, we have a much greater handle on what is happening in this hemisphere and Venezuela is the game changer. The Strait of Hormuz is like an aortic valve. It must be managed more delicately right now, but eventually it will be allowed to rupture for it will have a far less impact at that point due to the investments currently being made.
Posted by ragincajun03
Member since Nov 2007
29605 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:32 am to
Hopefully oil companies will continue to increase investment in Venezuela and do so with confidence that their workers and assets will be safe.

Now that said, the whole reserves thing is tricky and not so straight forward. Was the Venezuelan government properly accounting for reserves the same way we would at home?

Also, the big one, just because you have reserves doesn't mean all those reserves or economically recoverable. What's the price point where it makes sense for companies to go out and produce certain reserves. Some barrels may be economically recoverable at just $40/bbl. Others, you may need a $140/bbl market to make it worth investing in producing such barrels.
Posted by Timeoday
Easter Island
Member since Aug 2020
24707 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:37 am to
Yes and a lot of heavy oil coming out of Venezuela.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66457 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 11:45 am to
Don't worry. Trump pal Paul Singer bought Citgo, which he was only able to do with Maduro removed.

And then he spent millions on the campaign to oust Thomas Massie. What a guy.
Posted by idlewatcher
Planet Arium
Member since Jan 2012
98042 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:12 pm to
If you had any idea of the scale of corruption, you'd understand why they are producing such low numbers.

They have mounds of a product we purchase regularly. They wanted 10 bribes and even one of the secretaries got in on the action. We ultimately said no thanks.

This was in the Maduro days fwiw
Posted by lake chuck fan
Vinton
Member since Aug 2011
24529 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:16 pm to
I thought I'd read that alot of infrastructure (wells, pipelines, facilities, etc.) had deteriorated during the years the OG industry was nationalized and would require alot of work to update and repair before large quantities of oil could be pumped and shipped...????
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
20475 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:22 pm to
quote:

Don't worry. Trump pal Paul Singer bought Citgo, which he was only able to do with Maduro removed.


It was a public auction, you could have bid on it.

Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
20475 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:24 pm to
quote:

And then he spent millions on the campaign to oust Thomas Massie.


Would you prefer he did it the democratic way and spend the money developing a virus to kill millions
Posted by trinidadtiger
Member since Jun 2017
20475 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:42 pm to
Venezuela was down to 1.12 million barrels a day and now up to 1.25, at their peak they were producing about 3.2. Its heavy crude, production cost of 49 bucks and then have to discount about 17 bucks because it heavy.

Guyana will be up to 1.7 in a few years at 30 bucks production costs....everyone making bank.

Some perspective, the US produces about 13.6 million barrels per day (and yes they are also the largest gas producer), and there are 330 million people.

Guyana has 900,000 people and produce 1.7 million barrels. That would be the equivalent of the US producing, on a per person basis, about 623 million barrels of oil a day.

Guyana is the wild wild west right now.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66457 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 12:58 pm to
quote:

It was a public auction
Yeah, it's all just happenstance. Trump removed the one person blocking the deal and Singer was locked and loaded, ready to pay the 6 billion at an auction he forced through a lawsuit.

But it was open to anybody.
This post was edited on 7/13/26 at 12:59 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16353 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 1:37 pm to
Equipment is already being ordered by Venezuelan companies. via Columbia. I am involved in some of it, nothing sold at this point.

PDVSA once had a lot of Italians involved in executive management positions before Chavez. Many of its engineers moved to Columbia 20 years ago.

Russians and Chinese companies mismanagement the concessions they were given. Both are like pre WWII US oil companies and mismanage fields and reservoirs leaving more in the ground as unrecoverable.

Interesting that there were maybe a dozen large pipeline compressors (axial barrel type) sitting in the US and Canada which were bought out of bankruptcies and partial payments, which have been gobbled up the last 6 months or so originally destined for Venezuela.

Steam injection is required in many fields in Venezuela, no different than in California. The upgraders are the big problem in order to export to European markets. Mobil's, or so, year old field and upgrader were for the European market, not the US, assumed by Exxon in the merger.
This post was edited on 7/13/26 at 1:39 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16353 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 1:41 pm to
Don't forget that Columbia is to increase production now that the idiot is out of office. That crude is similar to US Mars but on sweet side with high residual content.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16353 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

Yeah, it's all just happenstance. Trump removed the one person blocking the deal and Singer was locked and loaded, ready to pay the 6 billion at an auction he forced through a lawsuit


A SHITTON of maintenance is needed in Citgo's refineries to get them safe an efficient once again. This will take a lot of money. Maybe even $1 billion is required in the Lake Charles refinery. This is why initially no one was interested at any price. Why your opinion isn't worth a crap
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66457 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 1:52 pm to
quote:

A SHITTON of maintenance is needed in Citgo's refineries to get them safe an efficient once again. This will take a lot of money. Maybe even $1 billion is required in the Lake Charles refinery
Dang, that Paul Singer is a saint for taking on this hardship.
quote:

This is why initially no one was interested
Trump removed the guy blocking the sale to ANYONE, and his pal Singer immediately jumped in and bought it. No one else was in play so don't pretend like they were. Sorry if that upsets you, but it should. Your anger is warranted.

And then Singer repaid the favor by helping to fund the anti-Massie campaign. Done and done. But you're not going to complain about that. Instead, you're going to cry to me about pointing it out.
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16353 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

Trump removed the guy blocking the sale to ANYONE, and his pal Singer immediately jumped in and bought it. No one else was in play so don't pretend like they were.


The refineries were in shambles when Obama was in office. There were pipes between units which only the epoxy coating containing the contents. The steel was corroded out, Citgo had been for sale since before then.

You are clueless about the timeline, par for the course.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66457 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 2:03 pm to
So Singer took on this enormous burden at great cost (actually it was a massive discount) and no benefit to himself.

What a guy.
quote:

Citgo had been for sale since before then
bullshite. The Maduro government was fighting a Delaware court's forced auction of Citgo. Maduro's removal eliminated the legal opposition, allowing Singer's firm (acting through Amber Energy) to finalize the roughly $5.9 billion acquisition without further challenges from Caracas.
quote:

par for the course
PT Israel fanbois shillin' like villains? Absolutely.
This post was edited on 7/13/26 at 2:15 pm
Posted by CitizenK
BR
Member since Aug 2019
16353 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 2:14 pm to
You obviously are clueless about refinery economics. By itself a refinery is a poor investment with little to no ROI.
Posted by blueboy
Member since Apr 2006
66457 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 2:16 pm to
quote:

refinery economics. By itself a refinery is a poor investment
Wow, it's a wonder why he'd want it.

And so grateful that he helped fund the anti-Massie campaign. Dude's just a glutton for punishment.
Posted by dstone12
Texan
Member since Jan 2007
40878 posts
Posted on 7/13/26 at 5:17 pm to
quote:

Don't forget that Columbia is to increase production now that the idiot is out of office. That crude is similar to US Mars but on sweet side with high residual content.
i’m only going off my own research, but Columbia has just as much oil as the UK. So it’s not anywhere near the amount of proven reserves that Venezuela has.

Correct?
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