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Message
IMO next four weeks will be key
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:00 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:00 am
Birch said in press on Wednesday that curves would not be stable till sometime next week!
Basically most of the cases being reported have been active for weeks and are just now being confirmed
Watch most of next week and first three weeks of april! If precautions really work cases should start decreasing a bit by then
Basically most of the cases being reported have been active for weeks and are just now being confirmed
Watch most of next week and first three weeks of april! If precautions really work cases should start decreasing a bit by then
3
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:02 am to BoomNation
quote:
If precautions really work cases should start decreasing a bit by then
Unless testing capability expands
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:04 am to BoomNation
quote:
Basically most of the cases being reported have been active for weeks and are just now being confirmed
Birx is in charge of fixing the reporting system.
I'm not trying to pump sunshine (and I've said this before) - hundreds of thousands of people - probably millions - worked on fighting/controlling the AIDS virus over the past 40 years. Many folks did amazing things during that time. In a period of 10 to 15 years, it went from being a death sentence to a condition far more analogous to diabetes. If caught early and responds to treatment, I'm not sure it's that bad now - closer to Hepatitis C (although not quite that easy to eliminate).
Of the 40 most important people in that fight, globally, Fauci and Birx are 2 of them.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 7:06 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:05 am to meeple
quote:
Unless testing capability expands
I do think we're past that as a chokepoint. And if we're not past it, we're getting very close to clearing up that question mark.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:43 am to King Edward I
quote:
We could already have tens of thousands of deaths baked into the cake.
GTFO here if you can't point to a spike in deaths that may have been misattributed to other causes.
This isn't the stone age - we know who dies and a reasonable explanation of why.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:46 am to King Edward I
quote:
Look at Bourbon St partying in NO.
That’s not happening.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:49 am to BoomNation
No its not the key. The virus will eventually pop back up as you have to be in lock-down basically 12-18 months to kill it in this way. Which is why Hong Kong is getting more cases again.
Its math.
LINK
Its math.
LINK
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:51 am to King Edward I
Grandpa with diabetes/heart disease/whatever should be in self-isolation as the current course of action has no real chance at success.
If Grandpa gets sick from this, and he gets so bad that he has to go to the hospital - more than likely he is going to die. If Grandpa is put on a vent 95% chance of death.
If Grandpa gets sick from this, and he gets so bad that he has to go to the hospital - more than likely he is going to die. If Grandpa is put on a vent 95% chance of death.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 7:53 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:52 am to meeple
quote:
Unless testing capability expands
we're not producing the tens (hundreds?) of millions of tests that would be needed at this point
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:54 am to SlowFlowPro
Testing does not solve the problem. They can test for the flu and the flu still exists.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:55 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
That's my concern. General public can put up with maybe another couple of weeks of this. A month tops. No way we can endure April-June lockdown. I suspect we're just going to have a spike in cases later in the year.
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:56 am to Bunk Moreland
You need 6 months at the least, and if you are wrong you have to start from scratch.... more than likely 12-18 months. The transmission rate of this, appears to be higher than the flu... and we can't stop the flu.
YOu are correct, at some point it will probably come right back... already appears to be in Hong Kong... notice the Chinese kicking out reporters?
YOu are correct, at some point it will probably come right back... already appears to be in Hong Kong... notice the Chinese kicking out reporters?
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 7:58 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:57 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
in a magical world where we had about 30M tests made for a novel virus AND the ability to slow down time to use all those tests, we could have used testing to isolate populations relatively early.
if this was only isolated in Los Angles county at first, that's over 10M people. even if we had a magical test that worked perfectly, we'd need likely more than 10M tests to account for people who test negative when they don't have it but may be exposed later
if this was only isolated in Los Angles county at first, that's over 10M people. even if we had a magical test that worked perfectly, we'd need likely more than 10M tests to account for people who test negative when they don't have it but may be exposed later
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:57 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
That's my concern. General public can put up with maybe another couple of weeks of this. A month tops. No way we can endure April-June lockdown
A shutdown that long shouldn't be tolerated
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:58 am to Bunk Moreland
quote:
That's my concern. General public can put up with maybe another couple of weeks of this. A month tops. No way we can endure April-June lockdown. I suspect we're just going to have a spike in cases later in the year.
i've been posting this the past week or so
there won't be a society left to save in possibly 1 more month
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:59 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
Testing does not solve the problem. They can test for the flu and the flu still exists.
So dumb
Posted on 3/20/20 at 7:59 am to SlowFlowPro
It will help but its almost an impossibility... but why? Everyone is going to get this... this will be much harder to stop than the flu.
The numbers don't make sense, many more people will die of the flu.
The numbers don't make sense, many more people will die of the flu.
This post was edited on 3/20/20 at 8:00 am
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:01 am to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
but why? Everyone is going to get this
the whole "flatten the curve" policy assumes most everyone gets this, but we will all get it at different times and spread it out
all of these policies are about ERs, urgent care beds, and vents
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:03 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:
there won't be a society left to save in possibly 1 more month
Yep and most don't see it... What is left to rebuild when we crawl out of our bunkers...
Posted on 3/20/20 at 8:05 am to SlowFlowPro
That's pretty much meaningless... the numbers are not go... if Grandpa gets this and is so sick he has to go to the hospital.... he is likely already dead. If he is put on a vent 95% chance of death.
Its not about beds... its about keeping Grandpa out of the hospital... once he gets to the hospital its basically the morgue.
Its not about beds... its about keeping Grandpa out of the hospital... once he gets to the hospital its basically the morgue.
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