If TX split... explain to me how that actually works?

They’d be their own country so of course they can have their own military and the US can GFI. As far as federal bases, maybe EKG or someone can answer that better.

All it takes is one and more States will follow

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What happens to people's social security contributions?

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Would forfeit to make it happen

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What happens to people's social security contributions?

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The Social Security issue is perhaps the thorniest and the most complex. If most Texans understood how the system currently worked, they would likely opt for open rebellion rather than an orderly TEXIT. Before looking at how Texas should handle this issue in the negotiation and transition phase, it is important to make an honest assessment of the Social Security system as it is now in the United States.

While Social Security retirement benefits are perceived as an earned benefit, in actuality the benefits paid are at the discretion of the federal government. It amounts to a government-sponsored, government-mandated Ponzi scheme that relies on an increasing number of workers who pay into the system in order to pay out the benefits promised by the self-serving political class.

The faith in the government’s ability to meet its promises is eroding daily. A 2015 survey by Pew Research Center found that 41 percent of Americans think there will be no Social Security benefits for them when they retire. Another third believe they will receive significantly reduced levels of benefits.

In CNBC’s article about the PRC report, they painted an even direr scenario.

“The Social Security and Medicare Trustees’ 2014 report projects that all the Social Security trust funds will be depleted by 2033. At that point, the agency will be able to pay out about 77 percent of retirement benefits from payroll taxes collected. By 2088, the trustees forecast the agency will be able to pay out 72 percent of benefits. (Studies from Harvard and Dartmouth project the trust funds could be depleted sooner than that and claim the Social Security Administration’s actuarial forecasts have been consistently overstating the financial health of the program’s trust funds since 2000.)”

When contemplating the path forward in negotiating this aspect of TEXIT, it is important to keep in mind that the real possibility exists that Social Security retirement will disappear sooner rather than later. It is also important to think about current and future Texans who are forced to pay into a retirement system that could leave them destitute in their old age.

In a post-referendum TEXIT, Texas will need to think about Texans first and will have to advocate for them. While we can look for common ground in other areas of negotiation and seek opportunities for a win-win solution, when it comes to Social Security, Texas must take a “no surrender” approach.

Any Texan who has paid into the Social Security system and is currently receiving benefits should continue to receive them. This is non-negotiable. This was an obligation of the federal government to those who paid into the system and should, therefore, be met without question, hesitation, or reservation. This should be no problem for the federal government since it is possible for Social Security recipients to move to a foreign country and still collect their benefits. Additionally, those who have paid in should be able to preserve their accrued benefits for exactly the same reason.

To lessen the impact of a sudden change in the system, workers who are currently paying into that system should be given an option to continue paying into the United States Social Security system or opting out completely. It’s safe to assume that many Texans will opt out and invest in private retirement accounts, but some will want to continue paying into the federal system, especially those close to retirement age. Given the reports of how dire the situation is for the Social Security Trust Fund, the federal government will likely find it appealing to have some Texans still paying into the system.

Moving forward, Texans may find it beneficial to establish a voluntary retirement and pension system similar to the one that already exists for state employees and educators. An easier step would be to open enrollment for either or both of those systems to any citizen in Texas.

Where the future relationship between Texas and the United States is concerned, this is more important than it might seem on its face. Post-TEXIT, there will be businesses that have feet in both Texas and the United States. Those businesses will want to seamlessly transfer workers from one place to the other without potentially subjecting them to dual Social Security taxation, the situation that occurs when a worker from one country works in another country and is required to pay Social Security taxes to both countries on the same earnings.

This is accomplished by the execution of what are known as international totalization agreements. Totalization agreements allow workers to combine the years they have worked in two different countries in order to be eligible for retirement benefits in one or both countries. The retirement benefits paid by each country are prorated based on the number of years worked there.

Totalization agreements are not alien to the United States. They currently have such agreements with Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Chile, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, the Slovak Republic, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

Steven Weiser, a tax lawyer with a practice focusing on international tax matters, explained how these totalization agreements work.

“For example, if an individual accumulates six years of coverage under the U.S. social security system and ten years of coverage in another country’s system that requires 15 years of coverage for full benefit eligibility, both countries will treat the individual as if a total of 16 years had been completed under each system. However, the U.S. benefit would be 5/16 of the benefit computed on the basis of earnings in both countries during the 15-year period (and 10/16 in the other country).”

Regardless of the final shape of any agreement on Social Security, it is important to mention that, if the United States fails to negotiate in good faith on this issue or if they fail to honor their obligations to hard-working Texans who have paid into their system, Texas will always take care of its most vulnerable citizens. The total amount of federal money that comes back to Texas annually for federal pension benefits is approximately $74 billion. This is far short of the $120-$160 billion annually that we overpay into the federal system that will now stay here in Texas. In short, if they choose the immoral route, we’ve got it covered.

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How long do trade agreements take to work out?

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I’m not certain I understand this question, but trade is the major issue that has the clearest path to resolution with the United States and it is one of the most important. International trade is a major driver of the Texas economy. In fact, Texas exports products to virtually every country in the world with total value of exports to just the top 25 totaling between $225 and $285 billion every single year. These are just the figures for products that originate in Texas and doesn’t include imports that flow through our ports and travel across our roads every day. Trade is major.

It is important to examine how trade works between Texas and the rest of the States and then see if there is a fair path to approximate that relationship now that gives Texas some control over the situation.

Currently, Texas is restricted in external trade by the prohibitions on States in Article 1 Section 10 of the U.S. Constitution, fully vesting that authority in the U.S. Congress. Consequently, States have little to no control over the flow of goods and services across their borders and there are certainly no trade tariffs between the States. Within the United States, member States have tariff-free trade and a singular external trade policy. Not accounting for the common currency, this economic relationship between the States is the textbook definition of a customs union. Some would argue that the United States is a fully integrated economic union, but the States retain a large degree of control over their individual fiscal policies, meaning that the United States is not a true economic union.

It is important to note that, other than the United States, there are 13 other customs unions around the world comprising virtually all of Central America, South America, nearly all of Europe, and portions of the old Soviet Union, and major blocs of countries in Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. In these customs unions, independent self-governing countries conduct trade in the same way as the States of the United States without being in a political union.

The clearest and easiest way to ensure that there is absolutely no disruption of trade between the U.S. and an independent Texas is for the two to enter into a customs union, but as equals. Anyone who thinks this would be unusual or far-fetched simply doesn’t understand the way trade works. Most people believe that the only free trade agreement the U.S. is a part of is the multilateral North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) between the U.S., Canada, and Mexico. It’s not. The U.S. also has free trade agreements with Australia, Bahrain, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Dominican Republic, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Israel, Jordan, Korea, Morocco, Nicaragua, Oman, Panama, Peru, and Singapore, all of which have a smaller GDP than Texas.

A negotiated trade agreement between Texas and the U.S., either through a customs union or a free trade agreement, would ensure continued tariff-free trade between the two. Any agreement should ensure continued access to rail lines, airports, seaports, and highways for the transportation of goods.

If the negotiated agreement is a customs union, the work is done. If, however, the U.S. or Texas opts for a free trade agreement instead, Texas would retain the freedom to pursue bilateral or multilateral trade agreements with any other nations without restriction. That includes negotiating trade agreements with countries that already have free trade agreements with the U.S., ensuring a continuity of trade policy.

In the event that Texas and the U.S. fail to come to terms, Texas could still trade with the U.S. using standard World Trade Organization tariff schedules and trade rules that have already been agreed to by the U.S. In short, Texas could take the tariff tables submitted to the WTO by the U.S., scratch out its name, write in ours, and submit it. This again leaves Texas the freedom to hammer out its own trade policies and trade with every country in the world, much like we are already doing, with one exception?it will be on our terms. In short, no matter how trade negotiations go with the U.S., Texas will be just fine.

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What happens when major and moderate sized corporations start pulling out and moving elsewhere? The tech industry definitely will.

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Then they leave.


But on average, Texas ranks as having the 10th largest economy in the world. There is no doubt that an independent Texas will do better.

To quote the conservative firebrand and TEXIT advocate, Claver Kamau-Imani, “After TEXIT, we’re gonna be rich!” He’s not exaggerating. Texas already collectively possesses a fair amount of wealth as one of the largest economies in the world. However, TEXIT promises to bring that wealth to every citizen of Texas. In exploring the negative effect of excessive federal regulations on Texans, the cited study showed how it has shrunk the paychecks of Texans by 75 percent. Flip the script and look at it from the standpoint of a Texas no longer subjected to those excessive federal regulations. Over time, the average Texan could see a 400 percent increase in take-home pay.

The retention of this type of wealth by Texans translates into an explosion of new business startups and corporate expansions, reducing unemployment to near zero. Texas can experience double-digit economic growth as the lack of an income tax turns Texas into an international haven for wealth and foreign investment. All of this economic activity results in an increase in government revenue, leading to better schools, improved infrastructure, and additional tax breaks.

The best data available shows a correlation between increased consumer spending and an increase in household income at a near 1:1 ratio. With these kinds of numbers, Texas could eliminate the property tax, leave the sales tax rate untouched, and still produce an increase in government revenue over and above what Texans currently pay to both the state and federal governments.

New currency also? What about currents debts of Texans? What about the Dallas Cowboys?

Louisiana goes with them, and we'd be a sovereign nation.

Exactly.
It’s a reason we refused to sign on with Common Core education standards/bribes..

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What about the Dallas Cowboys?

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Their fans would grow even more obnoxious. But at least they lose the outdated "America's Team" moniker.