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Started By
Message
re: Do the math. It is almost impossible for an American to die of COVID-19.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:11 pm to jimdog
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:11 pm to jimdog
quote:I DID THE MATH. YOU IGNORE THE MATH.
DO THE MATH. 86 of 1,000,000 ain't much. Means it is close to impossible. Now remove the sick plus elderly and it is ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE!
Let's do some more math. 600k American die of cancer each year. That is 11,500 per week. Only 35 of 1 million, that ain't much! At least 13,000 have died of Covid this week. Is it close to impossible to die of cancer?
0
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:11 pm to BestBanker
quote:Okay, so covid is killing about as many Americans as heart disease and strokes combined. Nothing to worry about!quote:
About 2,300 Americans die of cardiovascular disease each day, an average of 1 death every
38 seconds.
Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics 2018
At-a-Glance
American Heart Association
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:13 pm to Mid Iowa Tiger
quote:Wrong, it's only about 100 per day.
Rinse out your sandy vagina. The 2,000 death mark has happened on a few days. The average deaths per day last year for auto wrecks was almost 900 per day every day in the US.
quote:Again, I probably agree it's not worth the cost. But throwing around bullshite and outright false statistics does NOT help that argument.
Add to that the coronavirus deaths include anyone and everyone who MAY have corona and it is a low risk the average American will die of this BS. Definitely not high enough to have ruined the economy over.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:17 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:quote:That's really not a lot.
the "almost impossible" happens over 2000 times per day
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:19 pm to ShortyRob
quote:Gotta love anecdotes in a discussion about data.
A patient in my sister's hospital died of COVID 19. He was 86 and had already been in the hospital nearly a year. She knew him well. He had been on death's door that whole time and, finally, COVID got him.
quote:That pretty much describes death in general.
Which describes a shite TON of the elderly patients who have died...…….and over 70% of the deaths are elderly.
quote:So let's just talk about the other 30%, then? Over 500 NON-elderly people are dying of this per day right now. You and I are 5X more likely to die of Covid in the next month than a car wreck. Almost impossible.
So yes. For you and me, it's fricking ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE to die of COVID - 19.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:27 pm to Korkstand
quote:
We are doing the math, and the math says that the "almost impossible" happens over 2000 times per day. This "almost impossible" cause of death has been the #1 cause of death in the US for a few weeks now.
#1 cause of death because everybody is inside so no accidents....AND they are coding everything else as COVID19.
WAKE UP SHEEPLE. If they did constant snowflake TV coverage of the flu season every year like this none of you pusses would ever leave your homes EVER AGAIN. Get some backbone and learn to think critically.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:28 pm to Korkstand
quote:
So let's just talk about the other 30%, then? Over 500 NON-elderly people are dying of this per day right now. You and I are 5X more likely to die of Covid in the next month than a car wreck. Almost impossible.
Even if we take the data as true (meaning anyone that died with the virus), no it doesn't mean that all... meaning you're at peak or near peak for most places. So, the numbers will be reduced over time.
Assuming your not a 85 year old with diabetes, 2 packs of cig habit a day, and weighing 250lbs... I like your chances of being around or not dying from this.
Based on the new california study, I would say the mortality rate will probably plummet to below the flu. Also, if immunity is possible, any type of isolation could actually hurt herd immunity, again we don't have clear evidence whether there is immunity or partial immunity yet.
This is +/- the flu, possibly significantly less impact than the flu and possibility that once you have it, that's it... unlike the seasonal flu.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:32 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:29 pm to Tigahs24Seven
quote:
#1 cause of death because everybody is inside so no accidents....
The COVID numbers are being compared to historical averages - not actual number for the last eight weeks.
quote:
learn to think critically.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:32 pm to Tigahs24Seven
quote:Jesus.
#1 cause of death because everybody is inside so no accidents
quote:Not true.
AND they are coding everything else as COVID19.
quote:
WAKE UP SHEEPLE
quote:
If they did constant snowflake TV coverage of the flu season every year like this none of you pusses would ever leave your homes EVER AGAIN. Get some backbone and learn to think critically.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:33 pm to Korkstand
quote:Anecdotes can illustrate a point. You should know that
ta love anecdotes in a discussion about data
quote:
So let's just talk about the other 30%, then? Over 500 NON-elderly people are dying of this per day right now. You and I are 5X more likely to die of Covid in the next month than a car wreck. Almost impossible
No. We aren't. Because even in the 30%, there are other factors that make one vulnerable and nearly everyone in that group has this factors
You're horrible at stats and I can't fix that for you.
Your approach to stats would show that when I was 10, I had the same statistic chancea chance of being in the NBA as my peer 10 year olds because you'd left my height out of the variables
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:42 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:It is absolutely no surprise at all that most of the hot zones have peaked 1 month after shutting everything down.
Even if we take the data as true (meaning anyone that died with the virus), no it doesn't mean that all... meaning you're at peak or near peak for most places. So, the numbers will be reduced over time.
quote:Except according to the NYC data, that is already an impossibility. At present, 0.1% of the population of NYC has already died of Covid. In other words, we would have to assume that 100% of the residents of NYC have already been infected in order for the mortality rate to drop to flu levels, much less below flu levels.
Based on the new california study, I would say the mortality rate will probably plummet to below the flu.
There is a possibly, maybe even a very good possibility, that an eventual vaccine and better treatments can drop mortality rates drastically. But at this point in time, there is no reason to assume that.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:43 pm to Korkstand
quote:
It is absolutely no surprise at all that most of the hot zones have peaked 1 month after shutting everything down.
Yes it is because massive amounts of people already have, this is natural peak... has nothing to do with shutting things down.
quote:
Except according to the NYC data, that is already an impossibility. At present, 0.1% of the population of NYC has already died of Covid. In other words, we would have to assume that 100% of the residents of NYC have already been infected in order for the mortality rate to drop to flu levels, much less below flu levels. There is a possibly, maybe even a very good possibility, that an eventual vaccine and better treatments can drop mortality rates drastically. But at this point in time, there is no reason to assume that.
Well, if they are higher percent of fat, sick, unclean, elderly than they could have a higher mortality rate. I expect mortality rates to plummet in the US.
And lets honest here, people really don't die of the flu either, not really.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 12:46 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 12:58 pm to ShortyRob
quote:Yeah, and your particular anecdote illustrated the fact that old people tend to die of things. Well done.
Anecdotes can illustrate a point. You should know that
quote:You're right. We are actually more than 5X as likely because we aren't driving nearly as much.
No. We aren't.
quote:A huge chunk of Americans have a risk factor. This ignores the fact that these factors are not immediate death sentences in themselves.
Because even in the 30%, there are other factors that make one vulnerable and nearly everyone in that group has this factors
quote:
You're horrible at stats and I can't fix that for you.
quote:
Your approach to stats would show that when I was 10, I had the same statistic chancea chance of being in the NBA as my peer 10 year olds because you'd left my height out of the variables
Look, nearly all the "this ain't shite" deniers are comparing this to the flu. Which, if you didn't know, also disproportionately kills the elderly and those with other factors. And this is what the stats say: the worst week of the worst flu season in recent history saw 7k deaths due to flu+pneumonia. And that was with around 50 million symptomatic cases. We are seeing twice as many weekly deaths, with nowhere near that many symptomatic cases.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:03 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:
Yes it is because massive amounts of people already have, this is natural peak... has nothing to do with shutting things down.
quote:Actually NYC averages 2 years younger than the US as a whole. The rest of those assumptions are similarly silly.
Well, if they are higher percent of fat, sick, unclean, elderly than they could have a higher mortality rate.
quote:And I expect them to get higher in NYC. Because like I said, we are already assuming 100% infection, and the deaths are still rolling in.
I expect mortality rates to plummet in the US.
Lot of wishful thinking here. Honestly I hope you are right, but the data says otherwise.
quote:
And lets honest here, people really don't die of the flu either, not really.
Ok. So now you are arguing that the flu is less deadly than it seems?
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:04 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Look, nearly all the "this ain't shite" deniers are comparing this to the flu
I didn't
quote:I know
Which, if you didn't know, also disproportionately kills the elderly and those with other factors
It STILL doesn't remotely justify what we've done
Not even close
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:09 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Ok. So now you are arguing that the flu is less deadly than it seems?
I would say as a nation the numbers might be drastically less than the flu as far as mortality, furthermore its possibly that immunity is built, add to it... the majority of people will have no symptoms.
Unless you're in your last 1% or much less, chances are you're not going to die from this. Its more or less the flu.
If NYC is full of obese fat fricks especially elderly one.. yeah their rate could be higher... but they were more or less dead soon anyway, just pushed them to the front of the line a few moments early.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 1:11 pm
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:11 pm to ShortyRob
quote:
I know
It STILL doesn't remotely justify what we've done
Not even close
I AGREE!
I say as much in nearly every thread about covid that I post in. My point is that downplaying or denying the severity of it is NOT the way to argue against the shutdown. We have to be honest with ourselves and with each other about this disease, AND we have to get comfortable with the idea that we HAVE to place a dollar value on a life. Exactly the same as we do with every other risk in life. We know we could save 40k lives every year by banning personal vehicles. But we don't because it would be too costly, both in dollars and freedom. That is just the way we have to approach risk.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:12 pm to Korkstand
quote:
I AGREE! I say as much in nearly every thread about covid that I post in. My point is that downplaying or denying the severity of it is NOT the way to argue against the shutdown. We have to be honest with ourselves and with each other about this disease, AND we have to get comfortable with the idea that we HAVE to place a dollar value on a life. Exactly the same as we do with every other risk in life. We know we could save 40k lives every year by banning personal vehicles. But we don't because it would be too costly, both in dollars and freedom. That is just the way we have to approach risk.
Each life does have a dollar figure, see wrongful death suits.
Nobody is downplaying, the exact opposite.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:13 pm to GeauxFightingTigers1
quote:Except I have already pointed out that NYC is younger than the nation as a whole. After a little more research, I have learned that they are also LESS obese than most of the nation, 22% vs. 39% around the country.
If NYC is full of obese fat fricks especially elderly one.. yeah their rate could be higher... but they were more or less dead soon anyway, just pushed them to the front of the line a few moments early.
Posted on 4/17/20 at 1:14 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Except I have already pointed out that NYC is younger than the nation as a whole. After a little more research, I have learned that they are also LESS obese than most of the nation, 22% vs. 39% around the country.
Yeah all the data from around the world doesn't show that, matter of fact the data coming in... shows the data from February is basically spot on.
There are lots of variables that could impact the percentages but at the end of the day... the data was clear in february and is crystal clear now.
If I were in my last 1%, I would be held up in my house right now, but for the general public this isn't anything.
This post was edited on 4/17/20 at 1:17 pm
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