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Message
re: Do the math. It is almost impossible for an American to die of COVID-19.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:21 pm to bfniii
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:21 pm to bfniii
quote:
no, the cdc has acknowledged that a rise in any comorbidities, which is completely possible, can cause the c19 mortality count to be affected. moreover, this is a viral outbreak. the all cause is most certainly going to go up. the question is how much. that is what is being debated.
My point about the all cause data is that if these deaths were just misallocated cardiac, cancer, diabetes, etc. stuff as was suggested, the all cause would be in line 2020 with the recent history since the all cause is silent to well, cause. If the all cause is showing 2020 to be an order of magnitude outlier, it suggest something or somethings are happening there. That something is COVID....and probably some of the impact of care avoidance as time moves on.
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 12:33 pm
2
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:24 pm to bfniii
quote:That's what this thread is about. Try to stay on topic.
i didn't say that it did genius.
quote:Do you understand the difference between CFR and IFR? Clearly you do not. If you would learn the difference, we might save a little bit of time here.
i KNEW you wouldn't get the meaning of the first article. try to follow this - if the number of confirmed cases goes up as a result of more testing, guess what happens to the mortality number? it goes down! can you believe it? crazy, right? guess how that's related to the op.
quote:Flu is never the life-threatening condition, either. It causes other problems that kill you. In fact nearly every death comes down to oxygen deprivation. Heart failure doesn't kill you, it's the lack of oxygen that does. Do you understand?
"the CDC said. “In many cases, it is likely (not "overwhelmingly likely" as you said) that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).” so the c19 isn't the life-threatening condition. the comorbidity is the life threatening condition. yet, it's being counted as a c19 death.
quote:And if you can't see that the covid death numbers are reflected in the all-cause excess death data, then I can't help you.
if you can't see how that's inflating the mortality count, i can't help you. it's facile and plain as day.
quote:THAT'S HOW THIS WORKS FOR ALL DEATHS.
"the reporting process can be tricky" because "it's up to that patient's physician to decide if it is coronavirus-related." what's this? it's not up to the cdc? you mean physicians all across the country in different circumstances with different perspectives are actually the ones responsible for the reporting? well there's NO WAY that would be inconsistent.
quote:And getting every single thing wrong in the process. You need to realize that everyone else is way ahead of you.
i'm having to spell this out to you like you are a child
quote:My god, I think you have topped yourself here. This might be the single dumbest thing you've said so far.
"no explanation." we're talking specifically about people who tested positive for c19 but had a comorbidity. if we remove the c19 as the direct cause (as is being reported), there's only one thing left to attribute the death to.
quote:It's not a strawman. You just don't yet realize that this is the argument you are making at this point.quote:this strawman is the kind of stupidity i'm dealing with. you don't even understand what's being said.
health departments around the country and world are printing up death certs for people who never existed
quote:
i'll ask this question again
h1n1 - 60mil cases. 12.5k deaths
c19 - 1.2mil cases. 75k deaths.
does that make ANY sense to you? if that seems reasonable to you, then you are beyond stupid. there's no way c19 is THAT MUCH deadlier than h1n1. the epidemiology/virology don't support such an asinine conclusion.
First of all, c19 cases are likely 10X higher than the confirmed number. I mean, you realize that 60m figure for swine flu is an estimate based on a relatively tiny number of confirmed cases, right? Second, yeah some viruses are more deadly than others. It's fricking insane that you are trying to argue otherwise.
quote:There is absolutely nothing at all "controversial" about that. That is a standard disclaimer that is supposed to let idiots know that these are estimates.
no, people like you can't understand the controversial nature of things like this from the cdc, "the estimates of excess deaths reported here may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly. Upward trends in other causes of death (e.g., suicide, drug overdose, heart disease) may contribute to excess deaths in some jurisdictions. Future analyses of cause-specific excess mortality may provide additional information about these patterns."
quote:
they are telling you in THEIR OWN FREAKING WORDS that they are estimating in such a way that the mortality count might look worse than it actually is and that these numbers are subject to downward revision in the future.
Extreme misinterpretation of that quote. They are estimating in the only logical way.
quote:
once again, i am quoting the cdc themselves. i am not interpreting.
Un-fricking-believable that you think what you wrote is not a fricked up interpretation of what you quoted.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:24 pm to Korkstand
quote:what is this mealy mouthed bullcrap. who is doing this? what is the "true risk?" people who can read between the lines of the cdc guidelines are willing to take the risk of saving their livelihood. people like edwards are politicizing the outbreak for the sake of money. your asperger's histrionics over the reporting aren't accomplishing your stated goal. it's about risk, not math.
we don't need to downplay the true risk in order to be against the shutdowns
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:31 pm to Korkstand
quote:and you are still factually wrong on this matter. if you include the asymptomatic nature of the majority of infections, your inaccuracy goes through the roof
I'm only in this thread because this is a severe understatement of the risk
quote:semantics aside, you are wrong
The risk is not "tiny" and it is not "almost impossible" to die from it
quote:given the number of asymptomatic cases, you have no idea whether this is true or not. but that doesn't stop you from your lunacy
The risk is much higher than many others that we already account for in our everyday lives, such as car accidents. We know there is risk, so we wear seatbelts. The risk of dying of covid is currently much greater than that of dying in a car crash.
quote:the social mitigation efforts have very little effect. if we were serious, we would be taking people out of nursing homes and isolating them since that's 70% of the deaths. moreover, social mitigation may be causing other deaths later as i have pointed out
by damage I mean both in lives lost and economically
quote:you saying "overwhelmingly likely" based on no substantiation is not "truth." it's speculation
everyone needs to know the truth
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:35 pm to bfniii
quote:No, you cited a standard disclaimer regarding estimates and statistics in general. You have seemingly so far totally ignored the actual data regarding excess deaths.
you are factually wrong on this and i cited the relevant quote from the cdc themselves.
quote:I don't know why you're so hung up on the bolded part. Flu is not the "sole and direct" cause of flu-related deaths. Should we not attribute any deaths to flu? A gunshot wound is not the "sole and direct" cause of a shooting death, it is the lack of oxygen that kills. Same goes for heart failure. Same goes for cancer. Cancer doesn't kill anyone. Cancer causes many other problems that eventually lead to things like organ failure and, eventually, a lack of oxygen that results in death. There is really only one possible "sole and direct" cause of death: lack of oxygen.
and this is your problem. you can't help yourself with the strawman misrepresentations. no one is saying c19 wasn't present. being the SOLE and DIRECT cause is being questioned. you use the words "overwhelmingly likely" when you have no substantiation for doing so.
Do you see how stupid this sounds? That's how stupid you sound.
quote:That phrase is substantiated by the excess death data that you refuse to acknowledge.
you use the words "overwhelmingly likely" when you have no substantiation for doing so.
quote:The facts are being reported, as they should. How that impacts policy is another matter entirely. You seem to be suggesting that we should fudge the data a certain way to impact policy. I disagree with that idea. Policy should be based on facts.
that is leading to the reporting. that is leading to policy. i have explained this to you over and over.
quote:
you are dense.
quote:jimdog is out of his element and has conceded that fact. You aren't even smart enough to realize how dumb you are.
so when someone explains it to you, all you can do is strawman up. got it.
jim just laid it out succinctly and effectively for you yet again.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:37 pm to Korkstand
quote:the skepticism of many people has been explained to you in plain english. we can't make it any more simple than that. the cdc has admitted their approach is just one of many that are open to interpretation. its' astonishing you are trying to hang on to skyhooks.
People who question the excess mortality data clearly do not understand what it means
quote:nope. no one is talking about delays and that has already been spelled out to you. more strawman
If by "problems" you means "delays"
quote:the comment was specifically about the models which have been revised multiple times. also, the state of pennsylvania revised their count. guess what? that is not uncommon in these types of situations. h1n1 numbers continued to be revised months after the outbreak subsided.
Who is revising them?
quote:exactly. projections. models. estimations.
They are statistical projections
quote:that was basically a direct quote
Keep on with the strawmen, it's entertaining
quote:i responded with quotes from the cdc about how buckeye was wrong.
And what buckeye is trying to explain to you
quote:again, you are citing the excess death estimations as if they are fact. even the cdc is not doing that. you are wrong.
the excess death data indicates that these odds are so slim that they are effectively zero.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:39 pm to bfniii
quote:You don't know what a fact is. Up is down, black is white. You live in bizarro world.
and you are still factually wrong on this matter. if you include the asymptomatic nature of the majority of infections, your inaccuracy goes through the roof
quote:quote:semantics aside, you are wrong
The risk is not "tiny" and it is not "almost impossible" to die from it
quote:Wow. You really don't understand that asymptomatic cases have absolutely no bearing on this assessment, do you?quote:given the number of asymptomatic cases, you have no idea whether this is true or not. but that doesn't stop you from your lunacy
The risk is much higher than many others that we already account for in our everyday lives, such as car accidents. We know there is risk, so we wear seatbelts. The risk of dying of covid is currently much greater than that of dying in a car crash.
quote:Just because you ignore all the supporting evidence doesn't mean the evidence doesn't exist.
you saying "overwhelmingly likely" based on no substantiation is not "truth." it's speculation
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:47 pm to bfniii
quote:And I can't make it any more simple than the approach is verified as effective based on the data.
the skepticism of many people has been explained to you in plain english. we can't make it any more simple than that. the cdc has admitted their approach is just one of many that are open to interpretation.
quote:So you don't understand that the projected covid deaths models are entirely different than the excess deaths calculations. Yet another thing you don't understand.
the comment was specifically about the models which have been revised multiple times.
quote:So then you do not accept any science or math at all? Our entire world is build on projections, models, and estimations.
exactly. projections. models. estimations.
quote:You don't understand what you read.
i responded with quotes from the cdc about how buckeye was wrong.
quote:They are as close to a "fact" as we can possibly get in this imperfect, noisy world. That's just the way it is.
again, you are citing the excess death estimations as if they are fact.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 3:28 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:no one is arguing the point. it's the degree to which the data has changed that's being debated.
That something is COVID
Posted on 5/9/20 at 3:47 pm to longwayfromLA
One other thing longway. many if not most of the American people have absolutely sworn off most medical care in the form of needed operations, checkups, maintenance appointments and so forth. They are delaying seeking med attention out of the fear at this time of going into an area and dealing with people where sick folks have congregated. Clinics are actually furloughing help and hospitals are going broke. And that in and of itself has lead to tragic endings.
There are many deaths that Covid-19 has sped up and brought about quicker demise. And likely even some people that succumbed to the virus independent of a serious primary or secondary causation. But not to the extent that the media and the end times alarmists are sky screaming. See Sen. Pat Toomey's statement today.
There are many deaths that Covid-19 has sped up and brought about quicker demise. And likely even some people that succumbed to the virus independent of a serious primary or secondary causation. But not to the extent that the media and the end times alarmists are sky screaming. See Sen. Pat Toomey's statement today.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 3:47 pm to Korkstand
quote:not that particular article i cited genius. not directly. my word you are dense
That's what this thread is about
quote:of course i do. i just quoted it and explained it nitwit. it completely contradicts your point
Do you understand?
quote:you keep acting like this means something that it doesn't.
excess death data
quote:how does that make it any less debatable? it doesn't. it's like you don't even understand english. is english your second language?
THAT'S HOW THIS WORKS FOR ALL DEATHS
quote:says the person who can't even understand simple cdc quotes
And getting every single thing wrong in the process
quote:i described a simple process of elimination between 2 things and you can't even understand that. either you're the stupidest person on the planet or you're trolling
This might be the single dumbest thing you've said so far
quote:then prove i said that literally. because otherwise, it was a strawman. a stupid one at that
It's not a strawman
quote:this idiotic response does not help your point at all. you said the h1n1 cases are probably higher than 60mil and that c19 is only 10x higher that is a monumental, enormous, gigantic, absurd, ridiculously huge difference. it's like you don't even understand your own responses.
c19 cases are likely 10X higher than the confirmed number
quote:not 300x genius. i tell you what expert virologist, why don't you tell us all how much more deadly c19 is than h1n1.
yeah some viruses are more deadly than others
quote:but then you go on and make the claim "overwhelmingly likely." you have not, at all, at any time, treated these like they are estimates. you have been going on and on wasting everyone's time misunderstanding what you're trying to respond to. they are estimates that "may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly." everyone with a 5th grade education can see what that means. hence the articles i have been citing to you.
That is a standard disclaimer that is supposed to let idiots know that these are estimates
quote:IT'S A DIRECT QUOTE. my word you are obtuse. you are the one misinterpreting it.
Extreme misinterpretation of that quote
listen, at this point, i don't think there is anything more that can help you. multiple people in multiple threads over multiple days have tried to get through to you. you have been given expert analysis. you have been given statistics. you seem to be emotionally committed to a losing position. the only question is why.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 4:14 pm to Korkstand
quote:it being a standard disclaimer does not make it any less debatable in regards to the numbers that are being reported. it's sad you can't see that.
No, you cited a standard disclaimer regarding estimates and statistics in general.
quote:the data is dependent on the methodology. i wonder if you understand that.
You have seemingly so far totally ignored the actual data regarding excess deaths.
quote:because it makes a huge, HUGE difference and that is what people are trying to explain to you. people across the country, including experts, have caught on to this. it greatly affects the extremity to which we respond to the outbreak. you have asperger's don't you? i'm having to say the same, simple things to you over and over. you're just not getting it.
I don't know why you're so hung up on the bolded part.
quote:this is a quintessential, textbook strawman. at no time have i suggested anything like this. not at any point.
Flu is not the "sole and direct" cause of flu-related deaths. Should we not attribute any deaths to flu?
quote:you are factually wrong on this and i have explained it to you in plain english numerous times. the excess death data ITSELF is questionable and even the cdc has admitted it as i quoted to you. it does not help your point. moreover, you are wrong on principle. neither you nor anyone else except God knows how likely c19 is for any deaths when comorbidities are present. i'm pretty sure you're not God so the phrase "overwhelmingly likely" is nothing more than blithe speculation.
That phrase is substantiated by the excess death data that you refuse to acknowledge.
quote:not at any time have i suggested anything like this.
You seem to be suggesting that we should fudge the data a certain way to impact policy.
quote:it is a fact that the majority of people infected are asymptomatic. since that is the case, the reported fatality rate goes down. since that is the case, the risk goes down. those are facts.
You don't know what a fact is. Up is down, black is white. You live in bizarro world.
quote:see. you can't even understand something this simple. they absolutely affect the rates that are being reported. you're just emotionally committed to misunderstanding this issue.
Wow. You really don't understand that asymptomatic cases have absolutely no bearing on this assessment, do you?
quote:they both have a RANGE of deaths they are estimating. they both are dependent on confirmed cases. you're creating a false dilemma here.
So you don't understand that the projected covid deaths models are entirely different than the excess deaths calculations. Yet another thing you don't understand.
quote:totally missing the point and now you're starting to see your case is a loser because you're increasingly turning to semantics when you can't deal with rebuttal. they are estimates. they are not "overwhelmingly likely." i have quoted to you that the cdc admits their methodology is not the only one available. they have admitted they are including deaths that may not be even indirectly related to c19. even THEY aren't making the case you are.
So then you do not accept any science or math at all? Our entire world is build on projections, models, and estimations.
quote:it's a direct quote. there's nothing to misunderstand. they are making their own case from their own explanation. people are merely pointing out that we should take that into account when formulating policy in response. that's it. it's that simple. well, for normal people.
You don't understand what you read.
quote:even the cdc is not saying this. my word. that is just stupefying that you are clinging to this clearly wrong idea.
They are as close to a "fact" as we can possibly get in this imperfect, noisy world. That's just the way it is.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 7:20 pm to bfniii
I don't have the energy to keep responding to your stupidity line by line. You absolutely, positively, 100% have to be a troll. I refuse to believe that anyone can possibly misunderstand EVERY SINGLE frickING THING that is explained to him in simple terms. You take everything I say, twist it, then claim that I don't understand something. You take what the CDC says, twist it, and claim that it contradicts their own data. Every fricking sentence you write is an outright lie.
And since you seem to have overlooked it the first time, I'm going to post this again, and your explanation for it will tell me everything I need to know about you.
What follows is the number of deaths due to ALL CAUSES in the United States for the 15th week of the year indicated (and deaths per million population in parentheses). These numbers represent the actual number of death certificates that were issued for actual dead people who died that week.
2010 - 47134 (152/m)
2011 - 48342 (155/m)
2012 - 49119 (156/m)
2013 - 50878 (161/m)
2014 - 50532 (159/m)
2015 - 52844 (164/m)
2016 - 53490 (165/m)
2017 - 54861 (168/m)
2018 - 55228 (168/m)
2019 - 55481 (168/m)
2020 - 69880* (211/m)
*so far. we might expect 3,000-4,500 more to be added to this week over the coming 4-6 weeks, due to typical delays in processing and counting.
How do you explain the massive increase in deaths? This is what is meant by "excess deaths". And I know you don't understand statistics and probability at all, but such a massive increase absolutely cannot happen without a very significant event occurring. In this case, covid.
So, how do you explain the roughly 14,000 extra deaths over what was expected for the week?
1. Random fluctuation
2. The numbers are a lie, death certs are being fabricated
3. The US population increased by 85 million year over year and we didn't notice
4. Deaths related to heart disease doubled overnight
5. Deaths related to cancer doubled overnight
6. Deaths related to stroke increase 500% overnight
7. Suicides increased 1,500% overnight
8. Some combination of strange stuff is going on resulting in a 25% increase in total deaths overnight
9. Doctors are actually pretty fricking good at their jobs, and they are accurately reporting deaths due to a novel coronavirus
Which is it?
And since you seem to have overlooked it the first time, I'm going to post this again, and your explanation for it will tell me everything I need to know about you.
What follows is the number of deaths due to ALL CAUSES in the United States for the 15th week of the year indicated (and deaths per million population in parentheses). These numbers represent the actual number of death certificates that were issued for actual dead people who died that week.
2010 - 47134 (152/m)
2011 - 48342 (155/m)
2012 - 49119 (156/m)
2013 - 50878 (161/m)
2014 - 50532 (159/m)
2015 - 52844 (164/m)
2016 - 53490 (165/m)
2017 - 54861 (168/m)
2018 - 55228 (168/m)
2019 - 55481 (168/m)
2020 - 69880* (211/m)
*so far. we might expect 3,000-4,500 more to be added to this week over the coming 4-6 weeks, due to typical delays in processing and counting.
How do you explain the massive increase in deaths? This is what is meant by "excess deaths". And I know you don't understand statistics and probability at all, but such a massive increase absolutely cannot happen without a very significant event occurring. In this case, covid.
So, how do you explain the roughly 14,000 extra deaths over what was expected for the week?
1. Random fluctuation
2. The numbers are a lie, death certs are being fabricated
3. The US population increased by 85 million year over year and we didn't notice
4. Deaths related to heart disease doubled overnight
5. Deaths related to cancer doubled overnight
6. Deaths related to stroke increase 500% overnight
7. Suicides increased 1,500% overnight
8. Some combination of strange stuff is going on resulting in a 25% increase in total deaths overnight
9. Doctors are actually pretty fricking good at their jobs, and they are accurately reporting deaths due to a novel coronavirus
Which is it?
Posted on 5/10/20 at 10:56 pm to Korkstand
quote:there might be an iceberg in front of us. should we change course?
Korkstand
nah.
quote:
People who question the excess mortality data
add birx to this list. keep fighting the good fight my man.
Posted on 5/10/20 at 11:52 pm to bfniii
So does that mean you are going with #2? The numbers are a lie, and death certs are being fabricated? Great! It should be extremely easy to identify fraudulent death certificates.
I will be waiting for the reports about tens of thousands of death certificates for people who are either still alive or never existed. I'm sure you'll keep me posted.
I will be waiting for the reports about tens of thousands of death certificates for people who are either still alive or never existed. I'm sure you'll keep me posted.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:06 am to Korkstand
holy cow. let's see, medical doctors or korkstand the emperor with no clothes.
yes, you're right and the world is wrong.
yes, you're right and the world is wrong.
Posted on 5/11/20 at 12:18 am to bfniii
quote:
yes, you're right and the world is wrong.
I agree with the world. You apparently think the world is conspiring against itself.
Are you going to confirm that you believe health departments and/or the CDC are fabricating tens of thousands of fraudulent excess death certificates per week?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:31 am to Korkstand
kork "titanic," what in the hell are you talking about? you're not even making sense. do you not know what birx allegedly said?
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:54 am to jimdog
Great Post! 
Posted on 5/11/20 at 10:58 am to bfniii
quote:
you're not even making sense
quote:It's not relevant.
do you not know what birx allegedly said?
Are you going to keep deflecting, or will you confirm that you believe that health departments and/or the CDC are fabricating death certs for people who are still alive or who never existed? Because in order for all of your ramblings to have any place in reality, there must be tens of thousands of death certificates for fake people, and this can be easily verified if true.
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