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Message
re: Do the math. It is almost impossible for an American to die of COVID-19.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 9:32 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 5/8/20 at 9:32 pm to Korkstand
There's a slight uptick. But that's to be expected. That's been covered again and again. I don't know a soul who wants the virus since it is strangely in many, many cases a big nothing but in some cases, particularly the same ones with all the same over and over mentioned conditions, very serious. Two elderly brothers died here this week. One caught it and his brother went to his home to take care of him and he caught it too. Both old and overweight and one with lung issues. Both died.
Their elderly wives caught it too and ZERO symptoms. Nothing. But the hysteria has caused people to ignore their health to the extent that doctors are idle and hospitals are losing their asses financially. They are practically begging people to take care of their surgeries, etc. Too late for many sadly. But if you can read you already know that smart arse.
But neither of those things are the most important issue. More in danger (read unhealthy) people are going to die since we have chosen to commit economic suicide for the young and middle aged. By throwing millions into poverty, and elevating tons more people to risky status. Insanity. We have spent centuries eliminating risks only to throw it all out the door to "SAVE LIVES"...Damn! Destroy the country to SAVE THE COUNTRY! Can I get an AMEN!
Their elderly wives caught it too and ZERO symptoms. Nothing. But the hysteria has caused people to ignore their health to the extent that doctors are idle and hospitals are losing their asses financially. They are practically begging people to take care of their surgeries, etc. Too late for many sadly. But if you can read you already know that smart arse.
But neither of those things are the most important issue. More in danger (read unhealthy) people are going to die since we have chosen to commit economic suicide for the young and middle aged. By throwing millions into poverty, and elevating tons more people to risky status. Insanity. We have spent centuries eliminating risks only to throw it all out the door to "SAVE LIVES"...Damn! Destroy the country to SAVE THE COUNTRY! Can I get an AMEN!
0
Posted on 5/8/20 at 9:56 pm to jimdog
Side bar
Not quite factual, but follow along with me as but there is a circuitous relation to Covid:
Y Lady, Mrs Ann Hodges, 34 years old
Y Alabama (Sylacauga)
N Meteorite ( not meteor) fragment hit her left hip, not her head
N She was napping on the sofa, not watching TV
N She survived, dying 18 years later
Extra credit: Mrs. Hodges was a renter. She and her land lady squabbled over ownership of said meteorite fragment and it is now at the U of Alabama at the Alabama Museum of Natural History,
But here is the parallel
/ sarcasm on
So, Fauci would have coded this today as a meteorite death.
/sarcasm off
quote:
But hey, a lady in Alabama was hit in the head by a meteor and died several years ago while watching T.V @ home.
Not quite factual, but follow along with me as but there is a circuitous relation to Covid:
Y Lady, Mrs Ann Hodges, 34 years old
Y Alabama (Sylacauga)
N Meteorite ( not meteor) fragment hit her left hip, not her head
N She was napping on the sofa, not watching TV
N She survived, dying 18 years later
Extra credit: Mrs. Hodges was a renter. She and her land lady squabbled over ownership of said meteorite fragment and it is now at the U of Alabama at the Alabama Museum of Natural History,
But here is the parallel
quote:
Nobel, Justin (20 February 2013). "The True Story of History's Only Known Meteorite Victim". National Geographic. Retrieved 3 May 2015.
Ann later suffered a nervous breakdown, and in 1964 she and Eugene separated.
She died in 1972 at 52 of kidney failure at a Sylacaugan nursing home.
Eugene suspects the meteorite and frenzy that followed had taken its toll on Ann. He said 'she never did recover,' according to the museum.
Ann 'wasn't a person who sought out the limelight,' added museum director Randy Mecredy. 'The Hodges were just simple country people, and I really think that all the attention was her downfall.'
/ sarcasm on
So, Fauci would have coded this today as a meteorite death.
/sarcasm off
This post was edited on 5/9/20 at 6:54 am
Posted on 5/8/20 at 10:16 pm to Korkstand
Can you freaking read. Do you deny that he third world, no insurance increase in America's population is increasing health risks? But frankly that 's just a guess on my part as to why the slight uptick in deaths is PROJECTED by the UN. I'm sure it's more complicated than that. Frankly I don't give a damn.
But that's NOT THE ISSUE. You keep dodging the disaster of people losing their jobs, homes, insurance, children's education, ability to feed and cloth, family breakups, etc. Why are you doing that. Has to be some sort of political bias on your part. And of course you have no answers. I'm not an expert on many things. But I am an expert at making a living and educating and nurturing a family. I've put four through college and am now playing with grandchildren and getting old with the same wife. How? Working my arse off making something happen in the market place in Houston,Texas then all across the West Coast and the Southeast. I left the business world with the reputation as the top marketing guy in our industry which was huge. My last run was in California and Nevada so I've been there, done it and lived large and got my butt handed to me more than once.
I've been invited to a marketing strategy meeting with the president of General Motors and I've been run out of town on a rail. I'm not talking about BS on a poly board, with some math sh*thead. I'm talking about sacking up and making it happen in the real world. Making millions and then getting the rug snatched out economically and having to nut up and figure out how to domino again. If you've done that and lived to tell about it then you are qualified to talk about what makes the mare trot with me in business. I'm retired so I've got plenty of time to waste. If you aren't then you must not have much going on in your existence to spend all this time BS'ing. So either address he real issue of destroying our economy and people chasing ghosts. I got kids/grand kids who deserve the same opportunity to reach for sky like I had. Otherwise, have a nice evening.
But that's NOT THE ISSUE. You keep dodging the disaster of people losing their jobs, homes, insurance, children's education, ability to feed and cloth, family breakups, etc. Why are you doing that. Has to be some sort of political bias on your part. And of course you have no answers. I'm not an expert on many things. But I am an expert at making a living and educating and nurturing a family. I've put four through college and am now playing with grandchildren and getting old with the same wife. How? Working my arse off making something happen in the market place in Houston,Texas then all across the West Coast and the Southeast. I left the business world with the reputation as the top marketing guy in our industry which was huge. My last run was in California and Nevada so I've been there, done it and lived large and got my butt handed to me more than once.
I've been invited to a marketing strategy meeting with the president of General Motors and I've been run out of town on a rail. I'm not talking about BS on a poly board, with some math sh*thead. I'm talking about sacking up and making it happen in the real world. Making millions and then getting the rug snatched out economically and having to nut up and figure out how to domino again. If you've done that and lived to tell about it then you are qualified to talk about what makes the mare trot with me in business. I'm retired so I've got plenty of time to waste. If you aren't then you must not have much going on in your existence to spend all this time BS'ing. So either address he real issue of destroying our economy and people chasing ghosts. I got kids/grand kids who deserve the same opportunity to reach for sky like I had. Otherwise, have a nice evening.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 10:31 pm to jimdog
quote:
Do the math. It is almost impossible for an American to die of COVID-19.
The Grim Reaper just moved you to the top of his list.
Posted on 5/8/20 at 10:32 pm to Pepperoni
quote:
So, Fauci would have coded this today as a meteorite death.
This is a terrible analogy. It says there the person died of kidney failure, not the thing she had for 18 years. In reality, what's happening most of the time is that a patient with chronic conditions usually including age and/or hypertension is admitted to a hospital in with acute respiratory challenges, they test positive for COVID, spend a week and a half in the ICU before they die and have that death appropriately coded as COVID related because of the positive test and respiratory symptoms. Then people on this Board insist it should have been coded as straight cardiac-related or whatever the underlying comorbidity and that we made up the positive test and the respiratory services so that we could defraud CMS into paying us less money.
This post was edited on 5/8/20 at 11:44 pm
Posted on 5/8/20 at 10:43 pm to jimdog
quote:Yep. I just can't believe 95% of the shite people write on this board.
Can you freaking read.
quote:Doubtful it has much impact at all. Most illegals aren't exactly elderly.
Do you deny that he third world, no insurance increase in America's population is increasing health risks?
quote:You don't say..
But frankly that 's just a guess on my part as to why the slight uptick in deaths is PROJECTED by the UN
quote:The projected uptick is due to aging boomers. I already told you that.
I'm sure it's more complicated than that.
quote:Clearly.
Frankly I don't give a damn.
quote:Uh you made it the issue. This is your thread, remember? Or maybe you don't.
But that's NOT THE ISSUE.
quote:I am NOT doing that. I recognize all of these problems with the shutdown. That is why I am 100% AGAINST the shutdown! To quote you:
You keep dodging the disaster of people losing their jobs, homes, insurance, children's education, ability to feed and cloth, family breakups, etc. Why are you doing that.
quote:
Can you freaking read
quote:The answers are there if you would read and comprehend.
And of course you have no answers.
quote:
I'm not an expert on many things.
quote:Okay...
But I am an expert at making a living and educating and nurturing a family. I've put four through college and am now playing with grandchildren and getting old with the same wife. How? Working my arse off making something happen in the market place in Houston,Texas then all across the West Coast and the Southeast. I left the business world with the reputation as the top marketing guy in our industry which was huge. My last run was in California and Nevada so I've been there, done it and lived large and got my butt handed to me more than once.
I've been invited to a marketing strategy meeting with the president of General Motors and I've been run out of town on a rail. I'm not talking about BS on a poly board, with some math sh*thead. I'm talking about sacking up and making it happen in the real world. Making millions and then getting the rug snatched out economically and having to nut up and figure out how to domino again. If you've done that and lived to tell about it then you are qualified to talk about what makes the mare trot with me in business. I'm retired so I've got plenty of time to waste. If you aren't then you must not have much going on in your existence to spend all this time BS'ing. So either address he real issue of destroying our economy and people chasing ghosts. I got kids/grand kids who deserve the same opportunity to reach for sky like I had. Otherwise, have a nice evening.
Not a single word of that is on topic, but it seems that you have given up on arguing the point in your OP, so that's a plus for you.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:06 am to Korkstand
So you ignore the issue again. Oh well. And you are against the shutdown but that's just a BTW footnote for you. You are a narcissistic BS artist.
Me? I'm not sure what should have been done here given what I understand to be limitations of federal power. A defect in our rule of order? I know this, a mishmash of fragmented independent states running in several different directions with all vying for various political advantage is a hell of a way to run a railroad. Trump supported the shutdown maybe because he was afraid of the backlash of not doing so and maybe because he knew he couldn't stop it. But I could be totally wrong about that. He has been totally supportive of the rights of the states.
It's vitally important that we try to pick up some of the pieces at this point. Georgia "opened" back up in a fashion but the people have been so shaken they are not participating very much at all. Barbershops are full. It was myself and a couple in Newk's today. Restaurants are almost empty and only about half are even trying to serve dine in. Gym has a max of 12-14 people and it was 200 to 300 all day before. Grocery stores are full and so is Home Depot and Lowe's. Strange.
Me? I'm not sure what should have been done here given what I understand to be limitations of federal power. A defect in our rule of order? I know this, a mishmash of fragmented independent states running in several different directions with all vying for various political advantage is a hell of a way to run a railroad. Trump supported the shutdown maybe because he was afraid of the backlash of not doing so and maybe because he knew he couldn't stop it. But I could be totally wrong about that. He has been totally supportive of the rights of the states.
It's vitally important that we try to pick up some of the pieces at this point. Georgia "opened" back up in a fashion but the people have been so shaken they are not participating very much at all. Barbershops are full. It was myself and a couple in Newk's today. Restaurants are almost empty and only about half are even trying to serve dine in. Gym has a max of 12-14 people and it was 200 to 300 all day before. Grocery stores are full and so is Home Depot and Lowe's. Strange.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:16 am to jimdog
quote:I haven't ignored anything at all. I think this virus is nowhere near bad enough to justify all the damage caused by the shutdowns. I said this repeatedly in nearly every thread on the topic.
So you ignore the issue again.
My whole angle is we don't need to downplay the true risk in order to be against the shutdowns. In fact, it's counterproductive to do so. Both sides need to stop presenting biased views of the data, and just accept the truth and go from there. It's the only way forward IMO.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:28 am to Korkstand
Oh, one other thing since you seemingly have missed the "SAVE LIVES" crusade as being the total end all, be all linchpin of the shutdown. My entire point has been that since there is only a tiny chance of the average American man woman and child losing their life and since there is only one surefire way to put the virus in your rear view mirror then the shutdown was the absolute worst solution. Solving nothing and adding untold, long term misery to the equation. Does destroying the village to save the village (substitute America if you will) ring a bell numbnuts?
But you are too busy trying to split hairs and "win" some hair brained posting points that you would miss such I suppose. You are the winner here of sorts. So congrats. Poster of the year. Your bank account must be full of virtual posting points liquidity. Hell I am wrong to for responding and stirring you up. Over and out.
But you are too busy trying to split hairs and "win" some hair brained posting points that you would miss such I suppose. You are the winner here of sorts. So congrats. Poster of the year. Your bank account must be full of virtual posting points liquidity. Hell I am wrong to for responding and stirring you up. Over and out.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 2:45 am to jimdog
quote:Didn't miss it. I simply argue that we have to place a dollar value on a life like we do for every other risk. Even if shutting down has saved a million lives, it still has not been worth the cost in both dollars and freedom. But that calculation depends on an accurate assessment of the risk.
Oh, one other thing since you seemingly have missed the "SAVE LIVES" crusade as being the total end all, be all linchpin of the shutdown.
quote:I'm only in this thread because this is a severe understatement of the risk, and pushing this narrative is counter to achieving the goal we all want - to get back on with life.
My entire point has been that since there is only a tiny chance of the average American man woman and child losing their life
The risk is not "tiny" and it is not "almost impossible" to die from it. The risk is much higher than many others that we already account for in our everyday lives, such as car accidents. We know there is risk, so we wear seatbelts. The risk of dying of covid is currently much greater than that of dying in a car crash.
And people have to know that in order to proceed with the right amount of caution. If people think the risk is negligible, they will ignore it and act recklessly, then when the inevitable "second wave" hits as a result we will be back at square one. We can't let that happen. We have to be honest about the risk, and we have to act appropriately.
quote:That is not my goal at all. I just want people to be informed so that we can get through this with as little damage done as possible. And by damage I mean both in lives lost and economically. For that to happen, everyone needs to know the truth.
But you are too busy trying to split hairs and "win" some hair brained posting points
Posted on 5/9/20 at 4:40 am to Korkstand
78.200/330,000,000 = 0.0237%
Texas
1,004/29,900,000 = 0.0034%
I cannot believe this horse shite thread has gone on this long.
I cannot believe a political party would rather keep the areas it controls shut down so they can gain politically.
This has exposed the democrat party as the vile pieces of shite I have said they are for decades.
Texas
1,004/29,900,000 = 0.0034%
I cannot believe this horse shite thread has gone on this long.
I cannot believe a political party would rather keep the areas it controls shut down so they can gain politically.
This has exposed the democrat party as the vile pieces of shite I have said they are for decades.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 6:04 am to longwayfromLA
quote:
This is a terrible analogy
I should have added that sarcasm tag after all - I will go back and edit.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:18 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
excess mortality data
this is precisely the problem that people are questioning. from the cdc website, "potentially related to COVID-19." you are citing it as if it's a fact. also, "Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers." not only are there problems with the reporting of observed numbers of deaths (see pennsylvania), the expected numbers has been widely questioned and revised.
that methodology is incredibly liberal. they are playing fast and loose with the numbers. not to mention the fact that gov's like edwards have publicly admitted their policy making has been guided by federal funds. so there's NO WAY anyone would fudge the numbers for 100's of millions of dollars, right?
and then you have halfwits like korkstand who are saying grenade/horseshoe things like "if a person said the word coronavirus and died, well i'm certain that's a c19 death because it's overwhelmingly likely that's what they died from."
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:53 am to Korkstand
quote:i didn't say that it did genius.
It has absolutely dick to do with fatalities and fatality rates
quote:how about you try to understand what was said so that you don't say more stupid stuff like this.
But I wouldn't expect you to understand that
i KNEW you wouldn't get the meaning of the first article. try to follow this - if the number of confirmed cases goes up as a result of more testing, guess what happens to the mortality number? it goes down! can you believe it? crazy, right? guess how that's related to the op.
and axios who had reported the misleading info, then amended their story showing they acknowledged the point that people are making about the case counts.
quote:
And your second link backs me and other rational people 100%
"even top U.S. officials -- contending COVID-19 deaths are being inflated to make the pandemic seem worse"
"the CDC said. “In many cases, it is likely (not "overwhelmingly likely" as you said) that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS).” so the c19 isn't the life-threatening condition. the comorbidity is the life threatening condition. yet, it's being counted as a c19 death. if you can't see how that's inflating the mortality count, i can't help you. it's facile and plain as day.
"the reporting process can be tricky" because "it's up to that patient's physician to decide if it is coronavirus-related." what's this? it's not up to the cdc? you mean physicians all across the country in different circumstances with different perspectives are actually the ones responsible for the reporting? well there's NO WAY that would be inconsistent.
i'm having to spell this out to you like you are a child
"shifting estimates of number of deaths"
quote:
If you truly think that there is a significant number of deaths being misattributed to covid, then you are going to be left with a shitload of extra dead people for which you have no explanation
"no explanation." we're talking specifically about people who tested positive for c19 but had a comorbidity. if we remove the c19 as the direct cause (as is being reported), there's only one thing left to attribute the death to. quote:this strawman is the kind of stupidity i'm dealing with. you don't even understand what's being said.
health departments around the country and world are printing up death certs for people who never existed
i'll ask this question again
h1n1 - 60mil cases. 12.5k deaths
c19 - 1.2mil cases. 75k deaths.
does that make ANY sense to you? if that seems reasonable to you, then you are beyond stupid. there's no way c19 is THAT MUCH deadlier than h1n1. the epidemiology/virology don't support such an asinine conclusion.
quote:no, people like you can't understand the controversial nature of things like this from the cdc, "the estimates of excess deaths reported here may not be due to COVID-19, either directly or indirectly. Upward trends in other causes of death (e.g., suicide, drug overdose, heart disease) may contribute to excess deaths in some jurisdictions. Future analyses of cause-specific excess mortality may provide additional information about these patterns." they are telling you in THEIR OWN FREAKING WORDS that they are estimating in such a way that the mortality count might look worse than it actually is and that these numbers are subject to downward revision in the future.
people like you exist who just don't understand very basic information
once again, i am quoting the cdc themselves. i am not interpreting.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:57 am to madhatterman
quote:not according to the cdc as i have just quoted
Covid deaths are probably understated
quote:this doesn't exist. it only exists in your mind. we know precisely what the symptoms are.
our lack of knowledge of all the symptoms and the complexity of the virus
quote:it's not an issue of math. it's an issue of methodology and the cdc has laid bare their approach. from a statistical standpoint, they have acknowledged it's just one approach of several. from a policy standpoint, it's causing a great deal of harm to the national infrastructure because loony toons like kork keep touting it as "overwhelmingly likely" to be the case.
This crew is completely incapable of math
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:59 am to bfniii
quote:People who question the excess mortality data clearly do not understand what it means.
this is precisely the problem that people are questioning
quote:If by "problems" you means "delays", then yes it's extremely difficult to coordinate thousands/millions of people to report data in a timely manner. And who is questioning the expected deaths? Who is revising them? These numbers are based on historical death rates. They are statistical projections.
also, "Excess deaths are typically defined as the difference between observed numbers of deaths and expected numbers." not only are there problems with the reporting of observed numbers of deaths (see pennsylvania), the expected numbers has been widely questioned and revised.
quote:Keep on with the strawmen, it's entertaining.
and then you have halfwits like korkstand who are saying grenade/horseshoe things like "if a person said the word coronavirus and died, well i'm certain that's a c19 death because it's overwhelmingly likely that's what they died from."
The odds of someone dying due to something else, no matter how old or how many other diseases, while they are sick with covid, are incredibly slim. And what buckeye is trying to explain to you, and which after dozens of explanations in various ways you still do not understand, is that the excess death data indicates that these odds are so slim that they are effectively zero.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 11:59 am to longwayfromLA
quote:no, the cdc has acknowledged that a rise in any comorbidities, which is completely possible, can cause the c19 mortality count to be affected. moreover, this is a viral outbreak. the all cause is most certainly going to go up. the question is how much. that is what is being debated.
If what you're suggesting is true then the all-cause data would show no difference year over year
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:05 pm to Korkstand
quote:you are factually wrong on this and i cited the relevant quote from the cdc themselves.
That assumption is reflected in the excess death totals due to all causes
quote:and this is your problem. you can't help yourself with the strawman misrepresentations. no one is saying c19 wasn't present. being the SOLE and DIRECT cause is being questioned. you use the words "overwhelmingly likely" when you have no substantiation for doing so. that is leading to the reporting. that is leading to policy. i have explained this to you over and over. you are dense.
If your claim is covid did not lead to these deaths
quote:so when someone explains it to you, all you can do is strawman up. got it.
Hm, yeah, if we remove all the covid deaths then the number of covid deaths is tiny!
jim just laid it out succinctly and effectively for you yet again.
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:10 pm to Korkstand
quote:debatable at least
Elective procedures are down to basically zero because that is the smart thing to do at the moment
problems shutting down elective procedures
patient testimonies about procedures
quote:EXACTLY. NOW YOU'RE GETTING IT. the reporting led to the policy. now, the entire nation is suffering. you finally made the connection. holy cow that took forever. you are especially dense.
It's the lack of money-making elective procedures
Posted on 5/9/20 at 12:16 pm to longwayfromLA
quote:no, no, no. more strawman. i couldn't care less what the "coding" is. i just want the policy to reflect the reality that the mortality count is being affected by the methodology. the cdc has been honest about their methodology. it's out in the open. but don't base the policy making on fear and hysteria, which was one of the articles i cited for that numbskull kork. and this is why people are questioning how much influence birx, fauci, et al have in the policy making. they should be heard. they should not be running things such as what is allowed to be open and not.
Then people on this Board insist it should have been coded as straight cardiac-related or whatever the underlying comorbidity and that we made up the positive test and the respiratory services so that we could defraud CMS into paying us less money.
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