Posted by
Message
davyjones
LSU Fan
North Central, LA
Member since Feb 2019
11934 posts
 Online 

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

I’m a pretty big proponent of data

Data can certainly be some good stuff, but also can be "garbage in, garbage out".
This post was edited on 11/2 at 9:18 pm


fly2fish
Alabama Fan
OB
Member since Nov 2008
189 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
I do ignore these polls. Trump is going to win, mark it down.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
213
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
70021 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

Yep

it's not like Trump can't win, he just needs an even more historic polling error than last time


Look, I hope the polls get blown to pieces and we never hear from them again. I believe they serve no purpose to the republic other than to suppress turnout - that’s not a conspiracy theory as much as it’s simply human nature.

However, the anecdotal stories of folks saying they’re for Biden will need to be substantial to explain this error. It’s not like there are a ton of undecideds breaking last minute.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
70021 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

Data can certainly be some good stuff, but also can be "garbage in, garbage out".


There is no doubt, and polls are particularly prone to that. I’m not trying to argue for/against them as much as I’m worried about the margins they’re showing.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
NawlinsTiger9
New Orleans Saints Fan
Where the mongooses roam
Member since Jan 2009
28924 posts
 Online 

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

other than to suppress turnout


I will never understand this theory, but that's okay, we can save it for another thread.

quote:

It’s not like there are a ton of undecideds breaking last minute.


The lack of undecided voters and the anticipated huge turnout are the main reasons I believe the polls this year.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
70021 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

sure as hell don't believe that to be a fact, regardless of what says what. Certainly not. That's just me though.




I get that, but you have to start somewhere. If you assume they’ve been against you the entire time, lying the entire time, they are lying more now than ever. Whatever benchmark you want to use, Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.


slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
70021 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

I will never understand this theory, but that's okay, we can save it for another thread.


We can - I’m just of the belief they’re a net negative for turnout. The general public has no benefit of knowing what the polls are. It influences behavior in a negative way, IMO.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
11
Godfather1
Houston Astros Fan
SE Louisiana
Member since Oct 2006
67556 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
I always leave open all possibilities. I’ve seen too much shite in my day.

That said, Trump appears to have all the momentum heading into tomorrow. I’m confident, but still wary. Too much frickery can still happen.
This post was edited on 11/2 at 9:26 pm


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
04
SDVTiger
Hawaii Fan
Cabo San Lucas
Member since Nov 2011
48592 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.




Replies (0)
Replies (0)
05
moock blackjack
LSU Fan
Member since Apr 2008
46340 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
Only if he cheats


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
03
TD SponsorTD Fan
USA
Member since 2001
Thank you for supporting our sponsors
Advertisement
Tactical1
New Orleans Saints Fan
Denham Springs
Member since May 2010
26192 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
I think he does.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
40
CGSC Lobotomy
US Army Fan
Member since Sep 2011
63783 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

I am talking about polls.


The polls are manipulated to generate a specific outcome, not to report one.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
15
Goldrush25
Washington Fan
San Diego, CA
Member since Oct 2012
31333 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
Forget the polls. In 2016, Trump won WI, MI and PA by fractions of a point, not comfortable win margins. Before that those were reliable Democrat EVs. A simple regression to the mean, plus MN, and Biden wins.
This post was edited on 11/2 at 9:32 pm


Arbengal
LSU Fan
Louisiana
Member since Sep 2008
1721 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
You are a lot smarter than your buddies. It’s over. Just relax


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
13
davyjones
LSU Fan
North Central, LA
Member since Feb 2019
11934 posts
 Online 

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

Trump has a more difficult climb quantitatively than ever before.

Well I don't know if he does or not because I don't give the data on the matter any credibility. Data being polls in this case, of course. For all I know Trump's actually leading outright in places that say otherwise, and significantly so. And I don't think they're "against me," but I do think they against Trump and have the ability to make the polls say what they want them to say. Is that not completely possible, that they could make polls say what they want them to say if they want to??
This post was edited on 11/2 at 9:35 pm


CGSC Lobotomy
US Army Fan
Member since Sep 2011
63783 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

In 2016, Trump won WI, MI and PA by fractions of a point, not comfortable win margins. Before that those were reliable Democrat EVs. A simple regression to the mean, plus MN


Gary Johnson took almost 100,000 votes from Trump in Minnesota in 2016. Clinton won by 13,000.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
20
TigerVespamon
LSU Fan
Member since Dec 2010
1888 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
They obviously don’t follow the TD Political Board.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
21
slackster
Stanford Fan
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
70021 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
quote:

Well I don't know if he does or not because I don't give the data on the matter any credibility.


That’s fine, but it’s the only data we have.

I’m not dumb - polls could be off again, that’s to be expected, hence MOE and other metrics.

To believe Trump is the true favorite you have to believe they’re lying more than ever (even R leaning pollsters). I’m not there yet, but I’d love to be wrong.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
00
AUCE05
Auburn Fan
Member since Dec 2009
33542 posts
 Online 

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
An incumbent with a great economy never loses.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
17
ValVenis
Member since Sep 2020
630 posts

re: Do any of y'all believe Biden is actually gonna win?
I'm not as confident as most are on this forum. Maybe it's because I live in an area that grows more liberal by the day and that certainly doesn't help.

My concern has come from the number of Trump supporters I knew that jumped ship and the fact that I've yet to meet a liberal that converted.


Replies (0)
Replies (0)
20
first pageprev pagePage 3 of 4next pagelast page

Back to top

logoFollow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News
Follow us on Twitter, Facebook and Instagram to get the latest updates on LSU Football and Recruiting.

FacebookTwitterInstagram