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2
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:13 pm to NIH
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:14 pm to SirWinston
quote:
As it is I feel like it’s 33% to 45% chance he actually secures the EV’s. But I do think DJT will be leading in NV for most of the night and even into the rest of next week before the Dems are able to “pull ahead”.
Seems like the "postmarked" rule is by Nov 3rd for Nevada... how much damage can they feasibly do if that is the case?
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:16 pm to Wtodd
quote:
Have they counted the early dead voters?
They still have Senator Pittman on ice
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:31 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
I expect him to win, but not 'easily'.
This one will be decided by less than 10k. A hell of a feat to cut the deficit in half since 2016.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:35 pm to Lou Pai
Nearly 25% of the votes are from "other" too... you cant convince me the majority of those arent Trump votes
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:55 pm to GeorgeWest
quote:
Biden will carry Nevada easily.
There is zero basis for this.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 1:57 pm to NIH
quote:
need to pick up my St. Arnold Christmas Ale to make sure all 2016 conditions are the same.
Four years older I don’t know if I can do a half bottle of bourbon again.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:08 pm to GeorgeWest
Unfortunately this is probably correct. I was listening to Rich Baris the other day when he was breaking down Nevada and he even admitted the Dems have mastered voter fraud in Clark County. Its an uphill battle for Trump to flip Nevada.
Posted on 10/29/20 at 2:19 pm to Lou Pai
quote:
RidculousHype on here has a great post with polling data discussing this
My math lines up with yours. It seems widely accepted in everything I've read that 80% of the NV vote will be early/mail.. the remaining 20% coming on Election Day. This would be 280K Election Day votes if the 1.4m total votes forecast is right (1.125m voted in 2016).
The Dems are hoping that Election Day split is something like 40R-30D-30I, netting R's only 28K votes which won't be enough to overcome the 40K-45K early deficit. Then they'd need to split the indy and crossover vote, which could happen. But, this Dem-friendly scenario hinges on the polling "method" question being off by a big margin.
This post was edited on 10/29/20 at 2:21 pm
Posted on 10/30/20 at 8:59 pm to Lou Pai
Ralston is acting like the updates are good news for Biden but I don’t see it.
R turnout is 64.3%
D turnout is 62.5%
Who could have imagined this, when D’s are telling pollsters they’re going heavy on mail and R’s are going heavy on Election Day?
Dem ballot lead is down to just over 44K..
R turnout is 64.3%
D turnout is 62.5%
Who could have imagined this, when D’s are telling pollsters they’re going heavy on mail and R’s are going heavy on Election Day?
Dem ballot lead is down to just over 44K..
Posted on 10/31/20 at 10:05 pm to RidiculousHype
NV update
Dem turnout 63.97%
Rep turnout 67.09%
Amazing. If Repubs dominate Election Day as expected, they could far exceed 2016’s 81% turnout.
Dem turnout 63.97%
Rep turnout 67.09%
Amazing. If Repubs dominate Election Day as expected, they could far exceed 2016’s 81% turnout.
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