- My Forums
- Tiger Rant
- LSU Recruiting
- SEC Rant
- Saints Talk
- Pelicans Talk
- More Sports Board
- Fantasy Sports
- Golf Board
- Soccer Board
- O-T Lounge
- Tech Board
- Home/Garden Board
- Outdoor Board
- Health/Fitness Board
- Movie/TV Board
- Book Board
- Music Board
- Political Talk
- Money Talk
- Fark Board
- Gaming Board
- Travel Board
- Food/Drink Board
- Ticket Exchange
- TD Help Board
Customize My Forums- View All Forums
- Show Left Links
- Topic Sort Options
- Trending Topics
- Recent Topics
- Active Topics
Started By
Message
Democratic turnout looks weak
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:49 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:49 pm
In 2016 with 2 candidates, the New Hampshire Democratic primary had 253,062 total votes cast.
In 2020 with at least 5-8 major candidates left, right now it's looking like ~235K votes will be cast.
We'll see how the ultimate total shakes out but a decline of any sort speaks to lower enthusiasm.
Edit: With ~80% in the total vote count is now 248,114, looks like it will finish a tad above the 2016 levels.
In 2020 with at least 5-8 major candidates left, right now it's looking like ~235K votes will be cast.
We'll see how the ultimate total shakes out but a decline of any sort speaks to lower enthusiasm.
Edit: With ~80% in the total vote count is now 248,114, looks like it will finish a tad above the 2016 levels.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 10:23 pm
6
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:50 pm to PEPE
That’s huge. Great post MSNBC hasn’t reported this yet.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:50 pm to PEPE
how are you getting to that math? I have them around 2008 numbers right now with is 260k
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:50 pm to PEPE
Can you blame them for staying home? 
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:50 pm to PEPE
This the data I’m most interested in
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:51 pm to PEPE
Can you blame them? They’ve had their hopes dashed on a quarterly basis by their own party. TigerDoc’s wife’s boyfriend has been tucking him into bed for 6 months straight
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:51 pm to LSU Patrick
MSNBC collared a voter to see who they voted for;
"Donald John Trump"
Reporter was disappointed.
"Donald John Trump"
Reporter was disappointed.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:52 pm to Magician2
quote:
how are you getting to that math?
I basically took the vote total at 20% and multiplied by 5. It's hard to calculate exactly because with "20%" in that may or may not mean ~20% of the votes. So we will really have to wait awhile to see exactly.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:56 pm to PEPE
I could be way off
NY Times just tweeted (Nate Cohn) an estimate per candidate and the total is around 210-220k which isn'tfar off from your number
ETA
I completely misread the tweet. Turnout is expected to be around 260k could even surpass 2008.
NY Times just tweeted (Nate Cohn) an estimate per candidate and the total is around 210-220k which isn'tfar off from your number
ETA
I completely misread the tweet. Turnout is expected to be around 260k could even surpass 2008.
This post was edited on 2/11/20 at 8:01 pm
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:59 pm to Magician2
Good god that’s even worse than the OPs numbers
Posted on 2/11/20 at 7:59 pm to Magician2
That's a huge decline actually, like 15%
typically the more competitive the race, the more money being spent, the more candidates = more turnout.
Lower turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire with this field is a strong omen.
typically the more competitive the race, the more money being spent, the more candidates = more turnout.
Lower turnout in Iowa and New Hampshire with this field is a strong omen.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:00 pm to PEPE
quote:
235K
39% in and roughly 50k votes totaled
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:01 pm to PEPE
Forecast is for 270,000 votes, lower than that will be a disappointment
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:04 pm to CamdenTiger
265k votes in 2008 if this surpasses that its a huge concern for the trump campaign enthusiasm is still very real.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:06 pm to Magician2
65,863 votes with 29% in, would extrapolate to 227,113 votes with 100% in, IF the % in currently corresponds directly to the ultimate vote share.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:08 pm to PEPE
Im watching CNN and they have 42% in with 112,000 votes casted
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:10 pm to Magician2
Oh I'm looking old data then, Foxnews is still reporting just 31%.
Looks like the % in is indeed unreliably early. I believe it corresponds to precincts which vary wildly in vote total. Until the high population precincts come in we won't know much.
Looks like the % in is indeed unreliably early. I believe it corresponds to precincts which vary wildly in vote total. Until the high population precincts come in we won't know much.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:11 pm to Magician2
It’s an open primary. In an historically liberal state. If they surpass 2008 numbers it’s not good but it’s not concerning at all.
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:12 pm to Magician2
Don’t forget it’s precincts reported in not votes and there are several more rural areas that where open later than the more densely populated area.
My guess is above 2008 numbers but solidly below 2016
My guess is above 2008 numbers but solidly below 2016
Posted on 2/11/20 at 8:14 pm to laxtonto
quote:
My guess is above 2008 numbers but solidly below 2016
Based on what I"m seeing 2008 had more than 2016.
2008 - 287,527
2016 - 253,062
Page 1 of 2
Popular
Back to top
Follow TigerDroppings for LSU Football News