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re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:19 am to bfniii
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:19 am to bfniii
quote:
it seems to be a case of all or nothing. certain localities are getting inundated while others have no deaths at all.
Of course folks are comparing environmental/behavioral factors of the affected population - the ratio of smokers, comorbidities, age, even hygiene levels, plus population density. The other postulate is there are at least 2 different strains (which is pure conjecture as far as I know at this point, but I also concede plausible) - one very lethal and one not so much.
I just wonder how long we will be talking about this particular virus - with vaccines already in trials, promising results from the anti-malarial (and anti-HIV) drug studies, we might go from pandemic to reasonable control of a viral disease in about a calendar year.
That would be something and show the capability of modern medicine. Hopefully tamp down future panics, but I just don't see the species getting less fearful in the near- or mid-term. Seems to be the other way.
0
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:25 am to Chromdome35
uptick in cases is due to more testing being done?
I can't get to the website linked.
I can't get to the website linked.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:48 am to Bulldogblitz
quote:
uptick in cases is due to more testing being done?
Seems to be the case. Thats why they have stressed that the number would be going up more once we started testing more
Posted on 3/19/20 at 7:58 am to GatorReb
The numbers are going to blow up today and tomorrow.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 8:03 am to buckeye_vol
I remember when I posted this really long post comparing Australia's gun laws vs. our gun laws and calculated a "number needed to ban" and you said my logic/numbers were "probably sound"
I was pretty proud
I was pretty proud
Posted on 3/19/20 at 8:14 am to GatorReb
quote:
Seems to be the case.
This is not true. Rate of new cases has stayed constant.
Thats not to say there isnt a wave incoming, but the new cases are within expectation relative to last 3 weeks.
The spike in new deaths however is harder to explain.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 8:16 am
Posted on 3/19/20 at 8:14 am to buckeye_vol
quote:
Well I just had my contract finalized to start a tenure-track faculty position in the Fall, so I guess I'm just preparing for the job, even though I d
Ha- nailed it!
Good for you man. Putting your talents to work.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 8:55 am to NYNolaguy1
Smaller EU countries are getting hammered.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 8:56 am to Chromdome35
quote:
The challenge would be in the assumption of 14 days, is that the right number?
I've read a couple of authoritative articles that refer to "the 14 day delay".
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:04 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
This is not true. Rate of new cases has stayed constant.
I’m not sure I agree with this. Your post indicates static infection, but rising numbers due to more testing. (If I understand your point)
Since were seeing increases in people going to the hospitals for treatment, that would suggest an increase in infections.
I’d suggest the infection rate is similar to the reported cases - with a lag. So today’s confirmed cases likely reflected the actual infection Rate from several days or a week ago.
Basically, wherever you think we are, we’re behind.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:09 am to BobBoucher
quote:
I’m not sure I agree with this. Your post indicates static infection, but rising numbers due to more testing. (If I understand your point)
Since were seeing increases in people going to the hospitals for treatment, that would suggest an increase in infections.
I’d suggest the infection rate is similar to the reported cases - with a lag. So today’s confirmed cases likely reflected the actual infection Rate from several days or a week ago.
Basically, wherever you think we are, we’re behind
I am going just by the numbers reported. Looking at the log graph of total cases, that exponential upward rate has remained constant. If there was a spike in cases the slope of the log graph would increase. So far it has not... yet.
LINK
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:21 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
. If there was a spike in cases the slope of the log graph would increase. So far it has not... yet.
Log graphs are exponential. Look at the legend on the left axis. It goes up exponentially.
So a linear trend on a log graph effectively confirms exponential growth.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:22 am
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:27 am to BobBoucher
quote:
Log graphs are exponential. Look at the legend on the left axis. It goes up exponentially.
So a linear trend on a log graph effectively confirms exponential growth.
Exactly. Since about March 1st that exponential rate has been near constant- it's why you see that straight sloped line on the log graph.
Any spike in cases would change the slope upward. That hasnt happened yet as you can see.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:29 am
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:08 am to NYNolaguy1
quote:
Any spike in cases would change the slope upward. That hasnt happened yet as you can se
Are you suggesting a log graph has to show exponential growth? Like it has to be exponentially exponential?
Once it’s exponential, I’d don’t think to what degree really matters much.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:17 am to BobBoucher
quote:
Are you suggesting a log graph has to show exponential growth? Like it has to be exponentially exponential?
A straight line on a log graph as you said means a constant exponential rate- up or down. If that line has a positive slope and gets steeper that implies the rate is increasing. As it gets shallower the curve is slowing. It is a trend.
It's just like looking at the slope of a normal line to figure out a rate of rise/run.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:20 am to Chromdome35
Jeez not a good day.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:37 am to NYNolaguy1
Agreed. How is that relevant to COVID? I guess I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make there.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 10:37 am
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:45 am to BobBoucher
What a reader must remember is "total cases" is in reality "total cases confirmed by test".
I believe the vast majority of people present infected and who have been infected have never been tested.
I really think this has been around longer than a few weeks.
How many people haven't even gone to the doctor?
I really think this is a huge over reaction.
I believe the vast majority of people present infected and who have been infected have never been tested.
I really think this has been around longer than a few weeks.
How many people haven't even gone to the doctor?
I really think this is a huge over reaction.
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:47 am to I B Freeman
Sorry for the DV... I saw IBFreeman and my finger automatically got that button. But after I read it, I agree with you
Posted on 3/19/20 at 10:55 am to BobBoucher
quote:
Agreed. How is that relevant to COVID? I guess I’m not sure what point you’re trying to make there.
You mentioned before (or perhaps I got the impression) that you didnt totally agree that cases were increasing exponentially at a constant rate.
From looking at the data so far that rate of total cases has remained constantly exponential, in other words it is not spiking due to increased testing. It has so far fallen right at the same exponential rate as it has since March 1st.
If there were a drastic new increase in confirmed cases were being recorded you wouldnt see a straight line in the log graph.
Eta: confirmed cases not testing
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 10:59 am
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