re: Daily COVID Updated as of 11/2/20 8:00 PM

Our testing is heavily ramping up so the numbers will keep going up. however the mortality rate is going down showing its not as deadly as first stated. It does appear to be highly contagious but its only killing the most vulnerable many of which died before we had the slightest handle on what was happening.

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So if we aren’t seeing any slowdown in 3-4 weeks, all bets are off.

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I agree with this. Of course, I also think it will be almost over in 3 to 4 weeks.

But, can folks hang on for that long without permanent financial damage? A lot of Americans live right on the edge - paycheck to paycheck. This should be a wake up call, but the next crisis will raise the same questions.

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I also think it will be almost over in 3 to 4 weeks.

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I agree. We’re hopefully in the middle of it now.

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He had been exposed 10 days prior

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i made this point days ago. this spike in cases ARE NOT new cases. these are largely test results that were already in the pipeline because the test results are taking days to return. i personally know someone in this boat.

what does that mean? it means that these "new" cases really should have been on previous days' growth rate %, not today's. that moves the number up from previous days and today's number down which means the numbers for the last 2 days didn't really spike up nearly as much. A LOT of context is needed to discern what's really going on.

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was told the test takes about five days so there should be a five day lag in the data.

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Test can be turned around in 4-24 hours. But symptoms lag by ~4 days.

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Is there a number that red flags in the brain start going off at?

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the only way i can answer that question is to compare to previous outbreaks - h1n1, seasonal flu, etc. this thing is not even a blip on the radar at this time. we aren't even at 10k deaths worldwide after at least 3 months of exposure. i realize you could say that china is misreporting their numbers but, even if they are, that still doesn't amount to much historically speaking

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So that means the rate of new cases is actually decreasing?

We went from only a few hundred daily tests 2 weeks ago to 2500 daily tests last week to 10k+ daily tests this week.

New cases should be skyrocketing. Or at least 4x+ compared to last week.

Right?

Eta: I guess there is a lag period, so maybe next week new cases will go 4x?

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New cases have been following an exponential curve within 4% error or so. Thats a near constant new rate of cases. If the rate of new cases spiked you would see that reflected in that rate. It hasnt happened yet. That could be due to cases having a lag in reporting.

Deaths on the other hand spiked relative to the rate they had been. If you could see a log graph its plainly visible.

I was exposed to hundreds of people while volunteering at the players golf tournament. I must be too mean for this virus. I just don’t get why I don’t have it. I’m over 8 days in.

just to keep some perspective, after 6 months of exposure, there were 20 million cases of h1n1 in the us alone. no quarantines. no social distancing. no closing of industries. there are not even 250k reported cases of covid-19 worldwide after at least 3 months of reporting. asian countries are already reporting a plateau in the number of cases.

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Just out of curiosity where does the RO on this compare to other highly contagious viruses?

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We don’t know. Estimates everywhere from an R0 of 1.4 to 6.something. Both of those can be probably thrown out and we can settle somewhere closer to 2.