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Message
re: Buyers Backing Out On Homes Due To New Rates
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:34 pm to NOLAVOL16
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:34 pm to NOLAVOL16
quote:
Depends on where in the South. The sticks? Yeah, you’ll be another transplant jackass driving up the cost for the locals. Lol
Of course... But I am not a Left wing jackass at least. lol
2
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:36 pm to aubie101
quote:
But I am not a Left wing jackass at least. lol
That’s a plus
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:38 pm to NOLAVOL16
quote:
Massive amount of demand due to Covid PTSD and younger millennials finally starting families.
Nobody wants to ride another lockdown out in a 2 bedroom flat. Millennials are buying their first (or second) homes finally, and they are doing it in neighborhoods with a little more space and security.
That's a Chicago trend, but it's also hitting New York, London, and even Atlanta.
quote:
No supply due to 15 years of under building and current owners that sell then needing to become buyers in this clown show of a market.
This is a huge factor that a lot of people don't talk about. There has been tight inventory since before Covid, and a lot of that was because most homebuilders never scaled back up fully after 2009. It's especially the case in the sub $500,000 market. I know we all make fun of those cookie cutter developments where most of the houses appear to be very similar....but those were affordable developments that middle income people could buy. Those are very scarce right now, and will be so long as construction costs are insane.
quote:
3. Writing is on the wall that rents are going to increase astronomically which is incentivizing buying.
I don't know if I agree with this 100%, but I've definitely been wrong about this before. I think rents might finally face some headwind based on the occupancy data I've seen in Chicago. It's edging downward slightly in the loop and surrounding areas. It's not a huge drop, but it's below pre-pandemic levels - I suspect because the former occupants are starting to move farther out to save on rent. Some might even be buying in the suburbs. I bet occupancy is hotter markets like Austin, Houston, Dallas, and some college towns though.
I'm hoping for our country's sake that rents don't keep rising as fast as they have been over the past few years.
quote:
4. Knowing rates are going to keep rising is both a impetus to buy now AND disincentive to sell now unless you’re in one of the groups I mentioned.
This summer will probably be a pretty hot market for closings. But by Christmas, I would expect things to slow down a bit.
quote:
5. New construction is just as expensive but may end up being the only way to get into a home if nothing else is for sale.
We looked at building in Louisiana. It just didn't make sense. And it wasn't the cost that was the biggest concern. Our builder was having major issues getting windows, electrical equipment, and some critical parts and materials needed for construction and occupancy. I was told our house would have taken 8 months to build in 2019 would take at least 12 months this year.
So when the development's planning commission approval got delayed because of a hurricane last fall (we are moving to Louisiana), we just decided to buy instead of build. We closed in October with a sub 3% rate on 30 year fixed.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:40 pm to NOLAVOL16
quote:
Depends on where in the South. The sticks? Yeah, you’ll be another transplant jackass driving up the cost for the locals. Lol
Yeah that's me. Moving from Chicago to Baton Rouge metro.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:41 pm to NOLAVOL16
The other thing this market is going to do is cause less spending on other areas of the economy. Buyers and renters may be able to afford their homes even at these prices but they have much less disposable income to spend elsewhere.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:44 pm to LSUnation78
quote:
Theres a whole generation who has never heard of 9% mortgages. But that was the norm for my parents generation.
My parents have talked about how their friends were astonished that they got an 8.5% mortgage rate in 1976 when the typical note was going for around 12.5%.
Those days will be back soon under Biden.
This post was edited on 3/31/22 at 2:44 pm
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:44 pm to Catchfalaya
thank god I closed on my refi at 3.25 in early Jan
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:45 pm to aggressor
quote:early 80's saw 12 to 16% for a brief period fixed rates
4.8% is going to look incredible in a year. My first house was at 8.25% in the 90's. Used to be a LOT higher than that in the '80's. 10% wouldn't shock me at all and honestly it is what we need even though it will be painful.
This post was edited on 3/31/22 at 2:56 pm
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:50 pm to aubie101
Bought first house in 95 at 6% (30]. Bought second (current) house at 4% in 12 (30). Refinanced last March at 2.35% on a 15 year mortgage.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:54 pm to GWM
quote:
The biggest thing that can turn this around is a Red Wave in the midterm elections,
It needs more than that, if you just put a bunch of Cassidy's, McConnell's, and Grahams with R's behind their name, you won't affect much. We need to be vetting who we pull the lever for and be willing to vote for someone who isn't the same old person or who establishment says can't win.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 2:55 pm to LSUnation78
Try 12.75% in 1984 with a refinance in 1987 at 9.375%.
I remember. Eff demorats.
I remember. Eff demorats.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:04 pm to dewster
quote:
3. Writing is on the wall that rents are going to increase astronomically which is incentivizing buying. I don't know if I agree with this 100%, but I've definitely been wrong about this before.
Downtown urban areas and apartments may face some headwinds but rents for single family homes and townhouses in the suburbs are going to skyrocket because it costs more to cover the landlords mortgage and expenses and the demand will only go up as more people are priced out of buying.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:07 pm to dewster
quote:
I was told our house would have taken 8 months to build in 2019 would take at least 12 months this year.
We’re currently building in the Nashville burbs and this actually worked in our favor because we signed a two year lease when we moved from NOLA. I’m probably the only buyer they ever had that said take as long as you want, I have plenty of time. In fact, I slow roll meetings with the builder just to push the schedule as far as I can without breaching contract.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:08 pm to aggressor
Never get to 10% .
The interest of. The national debt won't allow it
The interest of. The national debt won't allow it
This post was edited on 3/31/22 at 3:13 pm
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:10 pm to teke184
quote:
My FIL loves telling horror stories of having two mortgages of 10% or more simultaneously in the 80s.
My sister bought a small house with over 12% back in those days. Good times for interest bearing accounts but horrible for borrowing.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:11 pm to Catchfalaya
We are headed to another recession, thanks potato Joe!
This post was edited on 3/31/22 at 3:12 pm
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:25 pm to Catchfalaya
I have been looking for some land. I talked to my realtor and her realtor buddies told her that I was better off waiting another six months for possible foreclosures. I guess they are anticipating a decline in the economy.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:31 pm to Catchfalaya
I don’t know how the hell anyone could afford a house before the rates went up.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:35 pm to Ace Midnight
quote:
Thankful to have closed last Summer at 2.49%.
Refinanced my VA to 2.25% during same.
Posted on 3/31/22 at 3:36 pm to dchog
Just my opinion, but they were likely headed for another bust. The prices homes have been selling for were simply outrageous.
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