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Message
Bernie running as an Indie is the Dems best chance to hold the House
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:31 am
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:31 am
Bear with me here...
There are only three outcomes with Bernie:
1) The Dem PTB don't interfere and he gets the Dem nomination.
2) The Dem PTB frick him over once again and he slinks away.
3) The Dem PTB frick him over once again and he runs independent.
By most accounts internally with the Dems, #1 will seriously impact down-ballot candidates and put the House in serious jeopardy because moderates will either stay home or vote Trump.
However, #2 will result in the Bernie Bros staying home, likely also costing the Dems the House.
#3 will get the moderates out to vote for the Dem candidate and while Bernie's voters won't be voting for that candidate, they'll be in the booth and if even 1/2 of them vote for the Dem down ballot candidates, they will be in much better shape.
There are only three outcomes with Bernie:
1) The Dem PTB don't interfere and he gets the Dem nomination.
2) The Dem PTB frick him over once again and he slinks away.
3) The Dem PTB frick him over once again and he runs independent.
By most accounts internally with the Dems, #1 will seriously impact down-ballot candidates and put the House in serious jeopardy because moderates will either stay home or vote Trump.
However, #2 will result in the Bernie Bros staying home, likely also costing the Dems the House.
#3 will get the moderates out to vote for the Dem candidate and while Bernie's voters won't be voting for that candidate, they'll be in the booth and if even 1/2 of them vote for the Dem down ballot candidates, they will be in much better shape.
7
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:33 am to udtiger
I don't think the Dems hold the house
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:34 am to udtiger
#4 - Bernie Bros vote for Ind. Bernie and nobody else. Dems lose down ballots and the House.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:37 am to udtiger
Bloomberg as an Indy also gives some Dems a chance to endorse a free market candidate
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:38 am to udtiger
Bernie doesn't have the cash to run as an Independent. He relies on nickel and dime contributions, and he won't get Party backing in a General. Sanders has all but said that he won't run as an Independent.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:38 am to HubbaBubba
quote:
#4 - Bernie Bros vote for Ind. Bernie and nobody else. Dems lose down ballots and the House.
That's more of a subset of #3 and is certainly a possibility - which is why I mentioned 50%.
Also, I am not saying the Dems will hold the House, but that this would give them the best chance to do so.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 9:54 am to udtiger
The Dems will try to interfere but that interference will lessen with the more state's Bernie wins. If Bernie sweeps SC and Super Tuesday like he has the last 3 primaries, it's over for the rest of the candidates. The only saving grace would be for someone to pick up a majority of states on 4/28's primary but if Bernie is still rolling with his current momentum by then I just don't see anyone in the Dem field pulling that off at that late a date (my bet is ST and the 28th is what Biden is working on).
66% of polled Democrat voters identify as Liberal or Very Liberal, that's whom Bernie is appealing to and why he's winning. Common understanding is that you go to the fringe in the Primary season then move to the middle in the General Election. Bernie is kind of like Trump in the respect that he's not going to move from his Primary stance if he makes it to the General Election.
This is a YUGE boon to Trump as Conservatives and Moderates will be coming out of the woodwork to vote FOR Trump as well as AGAINST Socialism (Bernie). If the polling is correct then a full 1/3 of Democrats will vote against Bernie in droves whether that means for Trump, for a 3rd party or staying home. Those who stay home or spite-vote will also harm down-ballot Democrat.
There is no "lose" for the country if Bernie becomes the Democrat nominee.
66% of polled Democrat voters identify as Liberal or Very Liberal, that's whom Bernie is appealing to and why he's winning. Common understanding is that you go to the fringe in the Primary season then move to the middle in the General Election. Bernie is kind of like Trump in the respect that he's not going to move from his Primary stance if he makes it to the General Election.
This is a YUGE boon to Trump as Conservatives and Moderates will be coming out of the woodwork to vote FOR Trump as well as AGAINST Socialism (Bernie). If the polling is correct then a full 1/3 of Democrats will vote against Bernie in droves whether that means for Trump, for a 3rd party or staying home. Those who stay home or spite-vote will also harm down-ballot Democrat.
There is no "lose" for the country if Bernie becomes the Democrat nominee.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:26 am to Wtodd
quote:
I don't think the Dems hold the house
Honestly, I think if we flipped the house it would be equal to Nov 2016.
Just think how much this Admin could accomplish if we had the trifecta
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:29 am to Wtodd
quote:
I don't think the Dems hold the house
The republicans make some gains but the way the map is set up it’s hard to see them taking the house outright.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:33 am to memphis tiger
quote:
The republicans make some gains but the way the map is set up it’s hard to see them taking the house outright.
Dead on. With the districts being what they are, it’s nearly impossible for the republicans to take the house. Lessen the advantage, sure, but that’s about it.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:35 am to udtiger
quote:
Bernie running as an Indie
One thing this does is gives the left an "excuse" as to why Trump won so big.
Frankly, it wouldn't surprise me if the left chose this is the best option out there.
Posted on 2/24/20 at 10:37 am to udtiger
Bernie is too much of a pussy to do this.
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