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Are party primary results indicative of enthusiasm?
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:45 am
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:45 am
Despite having no real opponent GOP primary voters are coming out in record numbers and voting for Trump.
Trump’s primary vote totals trounce previous incumbents’ numbers
Example:
Trump has received more votes than Obama in 23 of the 27 states which have held primaries in both 2020 and 2012 (the year President Barack Obama ran for re-election).
What about the Biden? After Bernie dropped out Biden running unopposed still can't get close to Trump's primary numbers:
Biden should be in the high ninety percent running unopposed.
IDK, but me thinks there is a slight enthusiasm gap that is going largely unreported.
Trump’s primary vote totals trounce previous incumbents’ numbers
Example:
Trump has received more votes than Obama in 23 of the 27 states which have held primaries in both 2020 and 2012 (the year President Barack Obama ran for re-election).
What about the Biden? After Bernie dropped out Biden running unopposed still can't get close to Trump's primary numbers:
Biden should be in the high ninety percent running unopposed.
IDK, but me thinks there is a slight enthusiasm gap that is going largely unreported.
8
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:47 am to GumboPot
quote:
IDK, but me thinks there is a slight enthusiasm gap that is going largely unreported.
I think the "I am not saying anything so I don't lose my job" factor is underreported too.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:52 am to GumboPot
Usually primary results depend on how many contested races you have.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:56 am to Quidam65
quote:
Usually primary results depend on how many contested races you have.
Right. That's why the number of votes rolling in for Trump are surprising. You would expect hardly any votes since he has the nomination in the bag. But he is crushing it with the number of people turning out in a primary election already decided.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 7:58 am to GumboPot
It is a good comparison against W.
I’m not so sure how well it works with Obama due to the Dems’ turnout machine heavily pushed by “walking around money.”
I’m not so sure how well it works with Obama due to the Dems’ turnout machine heavily pushed by “walking around money.”
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:03 am to teke184
quote:
“walking around money.”
BLM has raised a bunch of this this month. Of course, they're spending it on rioters, so it may wash out.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:07 am to GumboPot
That’s one possible explanation, that Trump’s overall popularity is vastly underreported/under-polled. (For various reasons including Trump supporters justifiably fearing reprisals and Progressive media manipulating polls for political benefit, etc)
Another possibility is that these primaries aren’t capturing the real zeitgeist.
The real issue could be:
1) You‘re either enthusiastically FOR Trump (because you love Trump OR you hate/fear Leftists)
2) You enthusiastically HATE Trump.
If you fall in category 1, you are going to flock to the voting booth because Trump’s pollIing numbers are low.
If you fall in category 2, you aren’t all that enthusiastic to vote in the primary because, who cares who the Dems pick as the candidate. In fact, you probably dislike Biden, but just not as much as you HATE Trump.
So we don’t have an answer to the Big question just yet, and these primary voting numbers tell 2 different yet plausible stories.
Another possibility is that these primaries aren’t capturing the real zeitgeist.
The real issue could be:
1) You‘re either enthusiastically FOR Trump (because you love Trump OR you hate/fear Leftists)
2) You enthusiastically HATE Trump.
If you fall in category 1, you are going to flock to the voting booth because Trump’s pollIing numbers are low.
If you fall in category 2, you aren’t all that enthusiastic to vote in the primary because, who cares who the Dems pick as the candidate. In fact, you probably dislike Biden, but just not as much as you HATE Trump.
So we don’t have an answer to the Big question just yet, and these primary voting numbers tell 2 different yet plausible stories.
This post was edited on 6/30/20 at 8:08 am
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:13 am to GumboPot
I was going to start a slightly different thread but Ill respond in this one.
I think the answer to your question is yes; there is a very real enthusiasm increase for Trump.
I vote based on policy and not the personality. That said I was lukewarm voting for Trump the 1st time. However, I did my "civic duty" and went to the polls and was pleasantly surprised with the win.
Since then things have changed and this voting cycle is very different. I literally can't wait to go vote for the guy. Maybe its just me, but I don't think so.
I think the "silent majority" has only been antagonized more since the '16 election. We will see.
I think the answer to your question is yes; there is a very real enthusiasm increase for Trump.
I vote based on policy and not the personality. That said I was lukewarm voting for Trump the 1st time. However, I did my "civic duty" and went to the polls and was pleasantly surprised with the win.
Since then things have changed and this voting cycle is very different. I literally can't wait to go vote for the guy. Maybe its just me, but I don't think so.
I think the "silent majority" has only been antagonized more since the '16 election. We will see.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:13 am to GumboPot
Damn. you found a real professor, one who has a reputation, and one who applies mathematics and science to analyze political trends. It's good to see integrity and some fragment of old academia surviving out there in the wild.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:25 am to GumboPot
I am not exactly sure what it means, but what I do know is having been on the ground for primaries across multiple cycles (with an incumbent in the WH and without) and having spoken to people who are still very involved in campaigning the turn-out numbers during the primaries for Trump were extremely surprising. They were historic, and the feedback from the precinct captains was the enthusiasm was the highest ever.
A lot has changed since then, but I still think the base is so strongly behind Trump that he is in very good shape. There are millions of members of the GOP who voted for Trump as a vote against Hillary who are now enthused. That has to have an impact.
There are dozens of pro-life organizations with 10s of thousands of members who were at best lukewarm to Trump last election who are very enthusiastic about his re-election. Trump has been shown to be the most pro-life president we have had.
All of these things can add up to a landslide, but how does one harness that energy if people are continued to be bombarded by the Covid machine BS?
To me that is the key to his re-election. His team has to cut through the noise. People should be hammering home why this spike is occurring and why it is not like the original run.
A lot has changed since then, but I still think the base is so strongly behind Trump that he is in very good shape. There are millions of members of the GOP who voted for Trump as a vote against Hillary who are now enthused. That has to have an impact.
There are dozens of pro-life organizations with 10s of thousands of members who were at best lukewarm to Trump last election who are very enthusiastic about his re-election. Trump has been shown to be the most pro-life president we have had.
All of these things can add up to a landslide, but how does one harness that energy if people are continued to be bombarded by the Covid machine BS?
To me that is the key to his re-election. His team has to cut through the noise. People should be hammering home why this spike is occurring and why it is not like the original run.
Posted on 6/30/20 at 8:33 am to teebro
Annnd... His baseball team beat our baseball teams arse. 
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