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re: Arab Spring- anyone remember what a grand idea he thought it was?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 3:12 pm to bamarep
Posted on 8/26/14 at 3:12 pm to bamarep
quote:It took the United States almost 14 years from the Declaration of Independence to the ratification of the Constitution. We had an ocean separating us from outside interference. Calling Iraq a failure may be premature. It definitely did not go as most believed, or even hoped, it would. But, it isn't finished yet, and neither are any of the other revolutions in progress.
After the abysmal failure in Iraq anyone with a brain could see what a nightmare this was going to be.
My own view is that the best organized factions have a leg up in the early going. But they are also usually the more extremists. They tend to alienate the majorities, and things move to the center as new consensuses are formed. It will take some time, and constant vigilance to keep the conflicts internal.
As for U.S. policy with respect to these revolutions, we have to kind of play it by ear. Finding useful friends is tough. Identifying foes is easy. Making sure the foes don't cause troubles for us, and our allies, is about the most we should aspire to.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 3:18 pm to bamarep
quote:
Arab Spring- anyone remember what a grand idea he thought it was?
Was it as grand an idea as deposing a dictator and installing a thriving democracy in "weeks...not months" ?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 3:20 pm to Poodlebrain
quote:
My own view is that the best organized factions have a leg up in the early going. But they are also usually the more extremists. They tend to alienate the majorities, and things move to the center as new consensuses are formed. It will take some time, and constant vigilance to keep the conflicts internal.
The thing about the Arab world is that the clerics are usually the most charismatic speakers in those countries, which is why the Islamists usually do well in free and fair elections, unless they're way out there like Al Qaeda and ISIS. In western countries, people with these sort of people skills have many more outlets besides theology, and they usually get involved with politics at a young age starting with their school government.
This post was edited on 8/26/14 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 8/26/14 at 3:30 pm to trackfan
quote:No question that Muslim clerics have an unusual amount of influence. Unfortunately, it is often those clerics with extreme views who have the influence.
The thing about the Arab world is that the clerics are usually the most charismatic speakers in those countries, which is why the Islamists usually do well in free and fair elections, unless they're way out there like Al Qaeda and ISIS.
I think Egypt is a good example of how the religious extremists won at the ballot box, but there was a well organized opposition who launched a counter-revolution and won by force of arms. How it all shakes out is yet to be determined.
In case people haven't figured it out we are living in what the Chinese would call interesting times.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:00 pm to Poodlebrain
quote:
I think Egypt is a good example of how the religious extremists won at the ballot box, but there was a well organized opposition who launched a counter-revolution and won by force of arms. How it all shakes out is yet to be determined.
I think it's pretty much already shaken out. In addition to murdering and imprisoning the Brotherhood's leadership, Al-Sisi has also thrown the top secularist leaders in jail. The secularists got played badly by the military, and now they're worse off than they were under Mubarak. It's deja vu, only worse.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:35 pm to trackfan
quote:
It worked out okay in Tunisia where it all started.
Hope you didn't speak too soon:
"Last updated: 26 Aug 2014 14:41"
"Attacks on Tunisian troops and officials by the al-Qaeda offshoot Ansar al-Sharia and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb group poses a threat to the country's stability, as well as an influx of fighters and weapons unleashed by other conflicts in the region.
Since April, thousands of troops have been deployed to Tunisia's mountainous Chaambi region on the border with Algeria, where fighters fleeing a French military intervention in Mali last year have taken refuge.
At least 15 soldiers were killed in attacks on military checkpoints in the area in July."
LINK
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:41 pm to NHTIGER
quote:
Attacks on Tunisian troops and officials by the al-Qaeda offshoot Ansar al-Sharia and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb group poses a threat to the country's stability, as well as an influx of fighters and weapons unleashed by other conflicts in the region
Outside agitators?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:48 pm to bamarep
Republican presidential candidate John McCain has been the single biggest cheerleader for 'democracy' in the Arab world, from the disastrous Iraq war (which Obama in a speech condemned pre-invasion) through Egypt to Syria.
The hackery on this board is breathtaking.
The hackery on this board is breathtaking.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:50 pm to bamarep
quote:
What a shitstorm it's turned the ME and N. Africa into.
I sure can't wait for the start of the football season.
So you will go away.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 4:53 pm to todospm
quote:
The hackery on this board is breathtaking.
Just the norm around these parts.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 5:00 pm to asurob1
quote:
Just the norm around these parts.
Truer words have never been typed ....... You do realize youre one of those hacks, dont you?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 5:09 pm to fleaux
quote:
Truer words have never been typed ....... You do realize youre one of those hacks, dont you?
are you talking to yourself?
Posted on 8/26/14 at 5:11 pm to asurob1
quote:
I sure can't wait for the start of the football season.
This is something we can agree on!
Posted on 8/26/14 at 5:33 pm to fleaux
quote:
Truer words have never been typed ....... You do realize youre one of those hacks, dont you?
No, he doesn't. He's just one of those typical elitist fricks whose only defense when he has nothing else to add is to bash those with a different opinion.
Congratulations sir, you are one of the reason's this country is going to hell.
This post was edited on 8/26/14 at 5:36 pm
Posted on 8/26/14 at 5:45 pm to Poodlebrain
Remember when the French Revolution happened and the French had a thriving democracy three years later?
Well, shite. Ten years later?
Well, shite. Thirty years later?
SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS LATER. THEY HAD WORKED IT OUT BY THEN, RIGHT?
Guess they should've stuck with the ancien régime!
Well, shite. Ten years later?
Well, shite. Thirty years later?
SEVENTY-FIVE YEARS LATER. THEY HAD WORKED IT OUT BY THEN, RIGHT?
Guess they should've stuck with the ancien régime!
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:24 pm to notiger1997
quote:
I'm trying to figure out who you think actually turned the middle east and N. Africa into bad places? Just one guy?
Well, one guy's campaign sure didn't have any problems with taking credit for it.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:36 pm to WeeWee
Is Egypt really a fail, they're not a functioning democracy but you could make a decent argument they are better off than they were 5 years ago.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:54 pm to socraticsilence
quote:
you could make a decent argument they are better off than they were 5 years ago.
Both the Islamists and the secularists would beg to differ.
quote:
Three prominent Egyptian activists from the 2011 uprising that led to the fall of Hosni Mubarak have been sentenced to three years in jail.
Ahmed Maher, Ahmed Douma and Mohamed Adel were found guilty of organising a recent unauthorised protest.
They were arrested after protesting in November over a new controversial law that restricts demonstrations.
The move will deepen concern in Egypt about a growing crackdown on dissent, says the BBC's Orla Guerin in Cairo.
The three well-known activists have long called for greater democracy in Egypt.
Mr Maher and Mr Adel were founding members of the 6 April Youth Movement, which led protests to remove long-time President Hosni Mubarak in 2011.
The three were among a group of demonstrators outside the upper house of parliament in late November protesting over the new law, which states that public gatherings of more than 10 people must be authorised.
The military-installed government has defended the law, saying it is not intended to limit the right to demonstrate but rather to "protect the rights of protesters".
But its opponents say the law has in effect replaced a recently expired state of emergency, and is stricter than the measures in place during the rule of Hosni Mubarak.
The men are the first to be jailed under the new law. The court in Cairo found them guilty of holding a demonstration without authorisation and attacking police officers.
State-run television said the men had been sentenced to three years' hard labour. They have also been ordered to pay a $7,000 (£4,000) fine each.
As the verdict was read out, the courtroom erupted with chants of "Down, down with military rule! We are in a state, not in a military camp", Reuters news agency reports.
Until recently, the main targets for arrests by the authorities had been Islamists, many of whom continue to protest over the ousting by the military of the Muslim Brotherhood-backed government of Mohammed Morsi in the summer after weeks of mass protests.
But recently dozens of liberal activists have been rounded up, our correspondent says.
The government maintains it is on the path to democracy, but that is not how it looks to many Egyptians, she adds.
LINK
quote:
Their custodial sentence on Sunday is proof that the current administration is seeking to stamp out secular as well as Islamist opposition, say fellow campaigners.
"The repression happening now to the movement and to other NGOs [non-governmental organisations] is even higher than what we experienced in [Hosni] Mubarak's time," said Amr Ali – Maher's successor as leader of 6 April – in the build-up tojust before the verdict. "Mubarak's regime is trying to get power back, and there is a systematic approach of revenge against groups and movements that stood against it.
"Whoever's ruling now is more or less depending on a policy of fear – under the name of fighting terrorism and fighting the Islamists."
quote:
"There's nothing new about the police behaving this way, and there's nothing new about them going after activists," said Heba Morayef, Egypt director at Human Rights Watch. "But for me what is significant, and what makes this so ominous, is the sense of entitlement the ministry of interior now has. They're going after the figureheads of the 2011 revolution, and they're trying to erase the gains made since January 2011."
LINK
Posted on 8/26/14 at 6:58 pm to bamarep
quote:
No, he doesn't. He's just one of those typical elitist fricks whose only defense when he has nothing else to add is to bash those with a different opinion.
Congratulations sir, you are one of the reason's this country is going to hell.
lol...elitist huh...I rather like the sound of that.
I'll be sure to tell my wife I'm an elitist frick tonite :-).
By the way, the country isn't going anywhere. Politics as usual.
Posted on 8/26/14 at 7:42 pm to kingbob
quote:Take this reasonable and articulate shite off the poliboard.
In his defense, the Arab Spring was a humongous opportunity to bring stable, secular, free, democratic representative republics to the Middle East. However, it was clear that the Arab Spring was also a wildfire in shifting winds that could not be controlled or contained. Clearly, we failed at influencing it in a constructive way, what is unclear is whether or not we could have truly influenced it positively at all.
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