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Message
re: Alabama voters… how are you voting today?
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:30 pm to George Dickel
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:30 pm to George Dickel
Katie and Mo broke even in the Huntsville metro.
Not good for Mo.
She ran up the score everywhere else.
Durant supporters, if they even show up in the runoff, would have to break 3 to 1 for Mo for him to even have a chance.
Britt only has to make up 5% to get to 50%. Mo would have to find an extra 20% of new voters. Not likely.
But the Durant voter profile doesn't really fit a typical Mo voter. He's a business interest candidate. These voters aren't MAGA voters. His voters are more traditional Republican. They'll either stay home or mostly go to Britt.
Durant voters in the Huntsville area, which made up 20%, were pretty much anti-Mo. That's the only conclusion you can come to.
Not good for Mo.
She ran up the score everywhere else.
quote:
He says his support is going to Mo.
Durant supporters, if they even show up in the runoff, would have to break 3 to 1 for Mo for him to even have a chance.
Britt only has to make up 5% to get to 50%. Mo would have to find an extra 20% of new voters. Not likely.
But the Durant voter profile doesn't really fit a typical Mo voter. He's a business interest candidate. These voters aren't MAGA voters. His voters are more traditional Republican. They'll either stay home or mostly go to Britt.
Durant voters in the Huntsville area, which made up 20%, were pretty much anti-Mo. That's the only conclusion you can come to.
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 10:33 pm
2
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:34 pm to secuniversity
Mo's only silver lining is that turnout was a bit low. He has to energize voters and I'm not sure he can do that
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:39 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
If Katie doesn't get 50% tonight, I'm not sure she will in a runoff either. Especially with Durant throwing his support behind Mo.
But if she stays at 45% or more then Brooks will have to get almost all of Durant's voters to beat her. If she just gets 10% of them, then she wins. I was expecting her to get around 30% to 35% of the votes tonight, not 45%.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:41 pm to HailToTheChiz
quote:
Mo's only silver lining is that turnout was a bit low. He has to energize voters and I'm not sure he can do that
In Mo's back yard he broke even with Katie: Madison, Limestone and Morgan counties were an even split.
Mo's support is basically hardened in the area that knows him best. Meaning his 38-40% support there will most likely not GROW.
The feeling is that Katie voters are energized and will be motivated to show up in a runoff. Runoffs are all about motivation.
One thing to note. Rural counties, which people think is BIG MAGA country went HUGE for Katie.
Speaking of MAGA. Trump's probably going to endorse Britt, even if it's to spite Mo.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:42 pm to Bamatab
quote:
But if she stays at 45% or more then Brooks will have to get almost all of Durant's voters to beat her. If she just gets 10% of them, then she wins. I was expecting her to get around 30% to 35% of the votes tonight, not 45%.
Her base of support is bigger. That simple.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:45 pm to secuniversity
Depends on whether Katie will debate him or not. If Mo can;t beat her in a debate, then he needs to go home. So far, she has refused to say she will debate him.
"Katie and Mo broke even in the Huntsville metro.
Not good for Mo.
She ran up the score everywhere else. "
"Katie and Mo broke even in the Huntsville metro.
Not good for Mo.
She ran up the score everywhere else. "
Posted on 5/24/22 at 10:56 pm to Marcus Aurelius
quote:
Depends on whether Katie will debate him or not. If Mo can;t beat her in a debate, then he needs to go home. So far, she has refused to say she will debate him.
They've debated several times all over the state.
Durant refused to debate.
Katie even gave Mo props for coming to the debates while Durant wouldn't.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:05 pm to secuniversity
quote:
The feeling is that Katie voters are energized and will be motivated to show up in a runoff. Runoffs are all about motivation.
Crossover Democrats.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:30 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
Crossover Democrats.
Who are also motivated.
A couple of things are clear tonight.
The rural MAGA voters who were supposed to be Mo voters went for Katie Britt, BIG.
Huge miss by everyone on that.
The 2nd thing that is clear, all voting sects (business, conservatives, establishment and moderates) were united in support of Britt (and against Mo).
Mo is upside down on his negatives vs. positive.
Put another way, people that dislike Mo has a much stronger feeling about it than people who support him have in liking him...especially in Mobile and the Wiregrass.
His support seems apathetic. And he doesn't have a stranglehold of conservatives. He speaks to a smaller portion of people than some would like to think.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:43 pm to Marcus Aurelius
MeeMaw getting in without a runoff is proof positive that Alabama voters deserve what they get. She will serve 10+ years as governor and never have to debate or answer any kind of tough questions.
That’s on the media for not consistently staying on her and that’s on the voters for rewarding her. I’m just sad about the precedent it sets in this state.
I agree with the above statement though about education. None of the candidates really took ownership of that issue when it was the one thing Ivey has never had an answer for.
That’s on the media for not consistently staying on her and that’s on the voters for rewarding her. I’m just sad about the precedent it sets in this state.
I agree with the above statement though about education. None of the candidates really took ownership of that issue when it was the one thing Ivey has never had an answer for.
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 11:45 pm
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:46 pm to secuniversity
quote:
The rural MAGA voters who were supposed to be Mo voters went for Katie Britt, BIG.
That's because Trump torpedoed him, and the rural MAGA voters blindly did what Trump asked.
Don't get me wrong, I'm a huge Trump supporter, but he did Alabama no favors with this.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:47 pm to secuniversity
quote:
Put another way, people that dislike Mo has a much stronger feeling about it than people who support him have in liking him...especially in Mobile and the Wiregrass.
A lot of people were very angry about his comments regarding the 2020 election at that Trump rally in Alabama. I just can't convince myself that's worth voting for an obvious RINO in Britt instead of a guy who actually objected to certifying the election.
Based on how Alabamans vote, I'll probably be stuck with Britt as my Senator for the rest of my life now (I'm only 40). She'll hold that seat forever. I hope she surprises me and isn't the big business shill at the federal level that she's always been at the state level.
This post was edited on 5/24/22 at 11:49 pm
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:48 pm to Bamatab
quote:
That's because Trump torpedoed him, and the rural MAGA voters blindly did what Trump asked.
If he were to endorse Mo again, it would completely change the outlook of the runoff.
Posted on 5/24/22 at 11:52 pm to imjustafatkid
quote:
Based on how Alabamians vote, I'll probably be stuck with Britt as my Senator for the rest of my life now (I'm only 40). She'll hold that seat forever.
Unfortunately you are right. She might surpass Shelby in the number of years she is our Senator.
quote:
I hope she surprises me and isn't the big business shill at the federal level that she's always been at the state level.
Tuberville has surprised me thus far, so I guess there's chance she could as well...but I seriously doubt it. Tubbs wasn't groomed by Shelby.
Posted on 5/25/22 at 12:47 am to George Dickel
quote:
Yes… it’s true. Alabama voters are dumb. Stupid. That average IQ map a week or so ago was kind. It said the average IQ in bammer is around 96. The truth is… it’s more like 85. /smh
Yep just go back to when they voted Roy Moore over Big Luther (i), only to lose to Doug Jones.
Maybe Big Luther can jump in as an independent and beat Katie.
This post was edited on 5/25/22 at 12:59 am
Posted on 5/25/22 at 8:01 am to leeman101
quote:
Yep just go back to when they voted Roy Moore over Big Luther (i), only to lose to Doug Jones.
Roy Moore was the correct choice in that election.
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