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re: 210 illegals have committed murder since 2020. Spare us the crying over two people in MN

Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:37 pm to
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22719 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:37 pm to
quote:

You’re still conflating incarceration share with crime rates. Arizona being a border state with a large undocumented population and aggressive enforcement doesn’t change that basic math problem. Saying “20% of inmates are undocumented” is not the same thing as showing higher per-capita violent crime. Without knowing the size and demographics of the at-risk population and how charging and cooperation policies operate, that statistic tells you who ends up in prison, not who commits more violent crime.

That's been done. Illegals are over-represented in Arizona prisons on violent crimes

quote:

As for your ETA, it matters because we’re talking about policy and resource allocation, not moral outrage. The question isn’t “is any crime unacceptable” because of course it is. The question is where limited enforcement resources reduce the most harm. If one group offends at a lower rate, pouring disproportionate resources into that group produces fewer prevented crimes than focusing on higher-rate offenders. That’s efficiency, not ideology.
.
Well, thankfully - targeting violent and property crimes is consistent with targeting illegals, so we're all good.

quote:

If your argument is simply “they shouldn’t be here at all,” say that. But don’t pretend incarceration percentages answer the public-safety question when they don’t.

I did. That was the whole point of my ETA. They don't belong here, so whether or not they commit serious crimes at a rate higher/lower than citizens is a point for curiosity, and as it turns out they commit serious crimes at a higher rate.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173658 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:39 pm to
If you like charts and numbers without even having to look at the stats if 210 illegals have committed murders since 2020 it appears that they're murdering people at a significantly lower rate than American citizens are.
Posted by tigersmanager
Member since Jun 2010
11234 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:42 pm to
this is only the ones we know about probably a lot more cases unsolved
Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
17467 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

No one is moving goalposts. You’re changing what “crime rate” means mid-argument.


Ok. So to double down.. violations of criminal statutes is now not considered to be crime.

quote:

When people talk about crime rates in the context of public safety and burden on local communities


Which abundant fraud, public assistance for illegals, free housing for illegals , free education for illegals, commercial licenses handed out with less requirements than American citizens have to have, and an addition of criminals to the public that should not otherwise be here is a hazard of public safety and burden on local communities. Just ask your like minded folks in Martha's Vineyard when a few show up.

quote:

I’m not saying those laws “don’t count.” I’m saying they don’t answer the question you’re pretending they answer. You’re using immigration enforcement data to make claims about general criminal behavior. That’s the category error.


Breaking laws is the epitome of "general criminal behavior". You don't get to redefine that. I'm sorry it's devastating to your stance here. But you don't get to define what "general criminal behavior" is.

quote:

As for your exemption question, you’re still missing the point. Citizens and non-citizens are subject to different legal regimes. Citizens cannot commit immigration status offenses at all. Non-citizens can. That alone guarantees overrepresentation in federal prison stats regardless of behavior in every other category. That’s not favoritism, it’s jurisdiction.


I'm actually not missing the point. There is an entire political system that includes congressmen, governors, state congressmen, attorneys general, judges, mayors, and useful public idiots built on glossing over immigration law and ignoring it.

While I get NO laws I can ignore.

That is the very definition of favoritism.

quote:

And no, narrowing to violent and property crime isn’t cheating


It's picking and choosing and being dishonest. Are we still throwing out white collar crime? What other crime not related to property and violence?

quote:

If your claim is “undocumented immigrants commit more violent or property crime per capita than citizens,” show that data. Federal prison math doesn’t get you there.


That's YOUR claim. And a very narrow distinction of crime.

Crime is crime. Don't matter the code section. Are you saying that the only crime to be concerned about at all is property and violence? Cause if we can get some exemptions on other things, I think you just saved the government some money by eliminating the Securities and Exchange Commission, FinCEN, a large portion of the FBI, the IRS, etc.
This post was edited on 1/28/26 at 1:52 pm
Posted by rwestmore7
Member since Nov 2007
1004 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

targeting violent and property crimes is consistent with targeting illegals, so we're all good


K
Live in your alternate reality.
Posted by UtahCajun
Member since Jul 2021
5572 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:48 pm to
Oh, carry on then.
Posted by rwestmore7
Member since Nov 2007
1004 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:49 pm to
You’re asserting conclusions without showing the data. Over-representation in prison still isn’t a per-capita crime rate. If your argument is public safety, show per-capita violent crime data. If your argument is “they shouldn’t be here at all,” then crime rates are irrelevant and shouldn’t be used as justification. You can’t switch between those positions depending on convenience.
Posted by UtahCajun
Member since Jul 2021
5572 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:49 pm to
quote:

significantly lower rate than American citizens are.

If you are saying that we should deport all murderers, I can most likely get aboard that train.

Of course I want to see all the data. Let me see how many were pleaded down. How many manslaughters and wrongful deaths are there?
This post was edited on 1/28/26 at 1:52 pm
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173658 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:51 pm to
If the numbers are correct (and I would think 210 is actually low and the numbers are in fact not correct) then it would completely destroy the argument that any of this is about public safety.
Posted by UtahCajun
Member since Jul 2021
5572 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

completely destroy the argument that any of this is about public safety

Well, illegals are part of the public. Ensuring they are documented lessens the chance of them being taken advantage of or preyed upon.

So yeah, public safety dawg.
Posted by Powerman
Member since Jan 2004
173658 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:54 pm to
quote:

Of course I want to see all the data. Let me see how many were pleaded down. How many manslaughters and wrongful deaths are there?

Sure. It would be nice to see some real data comparing illegals vs citizens.

I'm not even sure what point stout was trying to make with the 210 number.

There are at least that many murderers in many single metro areas that have a much smaller population than the total illegal population.
Posted by rwestmore7
Member since Nov 2007
1004 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:54 pm to
No one said violations of criminal statutes aren’t crimes. That’s a strawman. The point, which you keep sidestepping, is that different crimes answer different policy questions. Immigration offenses answer the question “who violated immigration law.” They do not answer the question “who poses a higher violent or property crime risk to the public.” Conflating those two is the category error.

On your second point, you’ve now broadened “crime” to include fraud, licensing, public benefits, and generalized resentment about public policy. That’s fine, but again, that’s a different argument. Those are questions about regulatory enforcement, eligibility rules, and social spending, not violent criminality.

Breaking laws is indeed criminal behavior. But not all criminal behavior is interchangeable for purposes of risk, harm, or enforcement priority. That’s why we don’t allocate police resources the same way for jaywalking, tax fraud, and homicide.

And yes, many white-collar crimes are property crimes. They’re still prosecuted, measured, and prevented through very different mechanisms than street-level violence, which is why lumping everything together obscures rather than clarifies public-safety analysis.

On favoritism, this is where you’ve fully left the data argument. Different legal regimes for citizens and non-citizens aren’t favoritism, they’re jurisdiction. Immigration law exists precisely because citizenship status matters legally. You may not like that framework, but its existence doesn’t prove unequal moral treatment or excuse bad statistical reasoning.

As for narrowing to violent and property crime, that isn’t dishonesty, it’s relevance. Those categories are what drive local policing, incarceration, and immediate harm. White-collar crimes matter, but they don’t change the fact that incarceration shares still aren’t per-capita crime rates.

Finally, you say the quiet part out loud at the end. This isn’t actually about crime rates. It’s about the belief that undocumented immigrants shouldn’t be here at all, regardless of behavior. That’s a political position, not an empirical one. Own it if that’s your view. But stop using selective statistics as cover for it.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61385 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:55 pm to
What is the claim even? Because illegal immigrants murder Americans, we should just shrug when the federal government kills Americans?

Or because illegal immigrants (of which I'm told there are 40-50 million) have killed 210 people, we should demand that every last one be deported immediately and not concern ourselves with collateral damage?
Posted by xxGEAUXxx
minneapolis
Member since Dec 2012
1344 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:59 pm to
quote:

because illegal immigrants (of which I'm told there are 40-50 million) have killed 210 people,


quote:

I guess we have 40-50 millions to deport.


You answered your own question. Good job.
Posted by tigersmanager
Member since Jun 2010
11234 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 1:59 pm to
the number is way higher this is just people that have been caught
Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
17467 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

What is the claim even? Because illegal immigrants murder Americans, we should just shrug when the federal government kills Americans?


That happened at Ruby Ridge, Waco, January 6, etc. I don't remember the same folks stomping their feet then. I think it was more like "well.. they should have just cooperated." Sounds familiar doesn't it?

We weren't notified the exact date that public sentiment and messaging should have changed. Surely you can understand our confusion.
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61385 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 2:00 pm to
What's the relevance of mentioning the civilians killed by the government?
Posted by David_DJS
Member since Aug 2005
22719 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 2:00 pm to
quote:

You’re asserting conclusions without showing the data

And you're not?

quote:

Over-representation in prison still isn’t a per-capita crime rate

Really? So if illegals represent 20% of murderers in Arizona penitentiaries but only 10% of Arizona's population, that's not proof they're over-represented?

quote:

show per-capita

Do you know what per-capita means?

quote:

If your argument is “they shouldn’t be here at all,” then crime rates are irrelevant and shouldn’t be used as justification. You can’t switch between those positions depending on convenience.

Is it okay to make both arguments at the same time, or is that too hard for you to follow?
This post was edited on 1/28/26 at 2:02 pm
Posted by 4cubbies
Member since Sep 2008
61385 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 2:03 pm to
quote:

That happened at Ruby Ridge, Waco, January 6, etc. I don't remember the same folks stomping their feet then. I think it was more like "well.. they should have just cooperated." Sounds familiar doesn't it?

We weren't notified the exact date that public sentiment and messaging should have changed. Surely you can understand our confusion.


When you say "we" and "our," who are you including?

The reality is that many people are OK with the government killing Americans as long as the President's political party matches their respective voter registrations.
Posted by CleverUserName
Member since Oct 2016
17467 posts
Posted on 1/28/26 at 2:13 pm to
quote:

No one said violations of criminal statutes aren’t crimes. That’s a strawman


How is saying people who commit crimes are criminals a strawman?

quote:

different crimes answer different policy questions


Fantastic play on words.

quote:

Immigration offenses answer the question “who violated immigration law.”


Noooo wrong. THE law. Who violated THE law. You folks are wanting to divide it in order to assign "humannnity" and "compasssssion" to different laws.

quote:

They do not answer the question “who poses a higher violent or property crime risk to the public.” Conflating those two is the category error.


In which you practically admit my last point.

quote:

On your second point, you’ve now broadened “crime” to include fraud, licensing, public benefits, and generalized resentment about public policy.


False. Government did. I didn't do a thing.

quote:

Breaking laws is indeed criminal behavior. But not all criminal behavior is interchangeable for purposes of risk, harm, or enforcement priority.


Again. Segregation of laws to assign priority or apply favoritism. And also again... none of which I, who am usually called "privileged", get the.. ahem.. privilege to partake in.

quote:

Different legal regimes for citizens and non-citizens aren’t favoritism, they’re jurisdiction.


Really? So there are no advocates for highly relaxed immigration law enforcement from federal, state, and local authorities? Cause I can show you many receipts on that.

quote:

Finally, you say the quiet part out loud at the end. This isn’t actually about crime rates. It’s about the belief that undocumented immigrants shouldn’t be here at all, regardless of behavior.


And you spend paragraph after paragraph denying favoritism. what does the law say to that? The actual black and white law?

Now let's remember the democrat mantra during the last term:


This post was edited on 1/28/26 at 3:21 pm
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