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Started By
Message
Tropical Storm Colin
Posted on 7/27/10 at 1:12 pm
Posted on 7/27/10 at 1:12 pm
Better get your water and plywood ready
quote:
Tuesday, July 27th 6:00 AM CDT
Disturbance 26 is entering the Gulf of Mexico this morning.
There are no indications of development, but we do expect thunderstorms to increase across the southern Gulf and the Bay of Campeche later today. Several other disturbances are moving westward across the tropical Atlantic, but none is expected to develop over the next day or two.
This post was edited on 8/3/10 at 6:31 am
1
Posted on 7/27/10 at 2:02 pm to tgrbaitn08
link please or GTFO
lol lol
lol lol
Posted on 7/27/10 at 2:07 pm to markb70734
i have read no where and i mean no where about any tropical weather any where near gold or in atlantic for that matter
Posted on 7/27/10 at 2:25 pm to markb70734
I cant link it because its a paid website and you have to have a user name and password and I will not give that out to you.
TropicsWatch Daily Briefing
Tuesday, July 27th 2010 6:30am CDT
Active Storms
None
Significant Disturbances
None
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 26 is located along 91W, near the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward near 10 mph. Development is not expected over the next couple of days but it will bring increasing thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche.
Disturbance 25 is along 57W and moving to the west near 10 mph. Development of this disturbance is not expected over the next few days.
Disturbance 28 is located along 29W. It is moving to the west at 10-15 mph. Development is not expected over the next few days.
Long-Range Discussion
Model guidance indicates that the next 10 to 14 days will be relatively quiet in the tropics. Conditions could become more favorable for development by the second week of August.
Meteorologists: Jim Palmer/Nathan Moore
TropicsWatch Daily Briefing
Tuesday, July 27th 2010 6:30am CDT
Active Storms
None
Significant Disturbances
None
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 26 is located along 91W, near the western coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. It is moving westward near 10 mph. Development is not expected over the next couple of days but it will bring increasing thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche.
Disturbance 25 is along 57W and moving to the west near 10 mph. Development of this disturbance is not expected over the next few days.
Disturbance 28 is located along 29W. It is moving to the west at 10-15 mph. Development is not expected over the next few days.
Long-Range Discussion
Model guidance indicates that the next 10 to 14 days will be relatively quiet in the tropics. Conditions could become more favorable for development by the second week of August.
Meteorologists: Jim Palmer/Nathan Moore
Posted on 7/27/10 at 3:10 pm to tgrbaitn08
Dead dead dead
Posted on 7/27/10 at 10:14 pm to tgrbaitn08
quote:
Development is not expected over the next couple of days but it will bring increasing thunderstorms to the Bay of Campeche.
why would we be getting our plywood ready?
Posted on 7/27/10 at 10:37 pm to TortiousTiger
In case you need to build a new doghouse....DUH
Posted on 7/28/10 at 10:45 am to LSU316
TropicsWatch Daily Briefing
Wednesday, July 28th 2010 6:24am CDT
Active Storms
None
Significant Disturbances
None
Other Disturbances / Areas to Watch
Disturbance 26 is located along 96W, in the western Gulf of Mexico near the Mexican Coast. Movement is to the west near 10 mph. It is interacting with an upper-level low pressure system over Texas to produce heavy showers and thunderstorms from southern Texas into southern Mexico. No development is expected before it moves inland later today.
Disturbance 25 is along 63W and moving to the west near 10 mph. Development of this disturbance is not expected over the next few days.
Disturbance 28 is located along 41W. It is moving to the west near 15 mph. Development is not expected over the next few days.
Disturbance 29 moved off of Africa overnight, and is located along 18W. It is moving westward near 10 mph. Development is not expected over the next 2-3 days.
Long-Range Discussion
While the next week or so is expected to be relatively quiet, several computer models indicate an increasing risk of development by the second week of August. The highest risk area will be in the Tropical Atlantic, as strong disturbances move off of Africa.
Posted on 7/28/10 at 5:27 pm to tgrbaitn08
I'm willing to take my chances with the African-origin storms; at least you have a fighting chance of them going elsewhere. Either out to sea in Atlantic or up the East Coast. It's these pop up storms in the Caribbean and Bay of Campeche/Yucatan area that develop and we're already under the gun. Storm watch should be a sticky.
Posted on 7/28/10 at 8:46 pm to tgrbaitn08
NHC and the HPC are going to be looking pretty hard at 29 over the next few days, BTW
Posted on 7/29/10 at 6:33 am to baytiger
quote:
NHC and the HPC are going to be looking pretty hard at 29 over the next few days, BTW
I have a feeling August is going to be a bitch of a storm season.
Posted on 7/29/10 at 9:08 am to tgrbaitn08
What they are calling 29 is looking interesting this morning
There isn't really much 850 mb vorticity associated with this and the NHC tosses discussion of this into the ITCZ and doesn't even have it as a wave. However, convergence and divergence are stacked and its moving into an area of decreasing shear. This might have a chance.
I would agree. Climatologically speaking we are moving towards the peak of the season and a number of things are coming together to suggest we may see a more active than normal stretch.
There isn't really much 850 mb vorticity associated with this and the NHC tosses discussion of this into the ITCZ and doesn't even have it as a wave. However, convergence and divergence are stacked and its moving into an area of decreasing shear. This might have a chance.
quote:
I have a feeling August is going to be a bitch of a storm season.
I would agree. Climatologically speaking we are moving towards the peak of the season and a number of things are coming together to suggest we may see a more active than normal stretch.
Posted on 7/29/10 at 9:53 am to rds dc
quote:So when will this thing hit?
What they are calling 29 is looking interesting this morning
Posted on 7/29/10 at 10:12 am to rds dc
quote:
There isn't really much 850 mb vorticity associated with this and the NHC tosses discussion of this into the ITCZ and doesn't even have it as a wave. However, convergence and divergence are stacked and its moving into an area of decreasing shear. This might have a chance.
It's even further south than Ivan was when it developed though. It's going to take a day or two to get north of 10 degrees, and then we might see something happen.
Posted on 7/29/10 at 10:34 am to rds dc
quote:
There isn't really much 850 mb
thats 850 x 10^-6 bars
Posted on 7/29/10 at 5:37 pm to baytiger
GFS and CMC are both starting to develop "29"
CMC develops "28" too
NHC has a 20% right now on "29", which is amazing considering how far south it still is.
Could be a fun weekend
CMC develops "28" too
NHC has a 20% right now on "29", which is amazing considering how far south it still is.
Could be a fun weekend
Posted on 7/29/10 at 8:02 pm to baytiger
Tropical Disturbance 29
Updated: Thursday, July 29th 2010 6:17pm CDT
Current Status
At 6PM CDT, the center of Tropical Disturbance 29 was located near 8N/32W. This position is about 2100 miles east of the island of Trinidad. Movement is to the west at 16-18 mph. The disturbance consists of a broad area of thunderstorms about 350-400 miles across. Satellite indicates that there is a well-defined circulation center located aloft, and there may be a weak low pressure area located at the surface. Thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat over the past 6 hours.
Our Forecast
There is very good agreement in all of the models concerning the track of this disturbance over the next 5-7 days, and we see no reason to disagree. We expect the disturbance to move to the west to west-northwest for the next week. This would take the system into or very near the islands of the northeast Caribbean around the middle of next week, on Wednesday or possibly as late as next Thursday morning. Beyond then, high pressure to the north of the system is forecast to be rather weak. This should allow for a a slower west-northwesterly motion generally toward the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. There are indications that steering currents may weaken as the system reaches the Bahamas around next Friday and Saturday. But that's a long way off to have much confidence in the projected steering patterns. It's possible that the system could reach the southeastern U.S.the weekend of August 8th-9th.
Development Potential
Concerning development and possible strengthening, all model guidance is in agreement that the disturbance will be developing into the third tropical storm of the 2010 season. In fact, initial guidance is in strong agreement that conditions will be favorable for this disturbance to become a hurricane within the next 3-4 days. But considering the current state of organization, we think that any development would occur more slowly, and we're going to be a bit conservative with our estimate of its development potential on this first advisory . We think that there may be about a 15 percent chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, we think that development chances may be at least 40 percent. And if it does become a tropical storm, then we see nothing to prevent it from continuing to intensify to hurricane strength east of the
Updated: Thursday, July 29th 2010 6:17pm CDT
Current Status
At 6PM CDT, the center of Tropical Disturbance 29 was located near 8N/32W. This position is about 2100 miles east of the island of Trinidad. Movement is to the west at 16-18 mph. The disturbance consists of a broad area of thunderstorms about 350-400 miles across. Satellite indicates that there is a well-defined circulation center located aloft, and there may be a weak low pressure area located at the surface. Thunderstorm activity has decreased somewhat over the past 6 hours.
Our Forecast
There is very good agreement in all of the models concerning the track of this disturbance over the next 5-7 days, and we see no reason to disagree. We expect the disturbance to move to the west to west-northwest for the next week. This would take the system into or very near the islands of the northeast Caribbean around the middle of next week, on Wednesday or possibly as late as next Thursday morning. Beyond then, high pressure to the north of the system is forecast to be rather weak. This should allow for a a slower west-northwesterly motion generally toward the Bahamas and the southeast U.S. There are indications that steering currents may weaken as the system reaches the Bahamas around next Friday and Saturday. But that's a long way off to have much confidence in the projected steering patterns. It's possible that the system could reach the southeastern U.S.the weekend of August 8th-9th.
Development Potential
Concerning development and possible strengthening, all model guidance is in agreement that the disturbance will be developing into the third tropical storm of the 2010 season. In fact, initial guidance is in strong agreement that conditions will be favorable for this disturbance to become a hurricane within the next 3-4 days. But considering the current state of organization, we think that any development would occur more slowly, and we're going to be a bit conservative with our estimate of its development potential on this first advisory . We think that there may be about a 15 percent chance that the disturbance will develop into a tropical storm over the next 48 hours. Beyond 48 hours, we think that development chances may be at least 40 percent. And if it does become a tropical storm, then we see nothing to prevent it from continuing to intensify to hurricane strength east of the
Posted on 7/30/10 at 9:52 am to tgrbaitn08
90L sputters and waits for that wave coming off Africa.
It appears that the models don’t really develop what was 90L but instead just kind of have that area pulse out ITCZ convection until the wave moves in and then development gets going. The European global model develops this and brings it into the W Caribbean in just over a week.
Once again, if a system develops, ridge placement and strength will be the key and I feel the Euro has done a better job with that than others.
Bay – New GFS thoughts? I kept an eye on it when it was running parallel but not close enough to pick up on any nuances.
It appears that the models don’t really develop what was 90L but instead just kind of have that area pulse out ITCZ convection until the wave moves in and then development gets going. The European global model develops this and brings it into the W Caribbean in just over a week.
Once again, if a system develops, ridge placement and strength will be the key and I feel the Euro has done a better job with that than others.
Bay – New GFS thoughts? I kept an eye on it when it was running parallel but not close enough to pick up on any nuances.
Posted on 7/30/10 at 10:47 am to rds dc
quote:
Bay – New GFS thoughts? I kept an eye on it when it was running parallel but not close enough to pick up on any nuances.
other than the fact that it doesn't develop it at all?
it does extend the subtropical high pretty far west by day 4.5-6.. so that means if it does develop it'll probably hit the US.
This post was edited on 7/30/10 at 10:48 am
Posted on 7/30/10 at 11:01 am to baytiger
quote:
other than the fact that it doesn't develop it at all?
Not in regards to this system, i was speaking in more general terms of overall performance of the newly released GFS that has been running in parallel vs. the old operational GFS.
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