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re: How will all of the anti-oil legislation affect LA's economy?

Posted on 6/4/10 at 11:40 am to
Posted by MrLSU
Yellowstone, Val d'isere
Member since Jan 2004
29741 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 11:40 am to
The moratorium is going to devastate Houma/Lafourche/Lafayette and to some degree with have a major impact on Covington/Mandeville and New Orleans. The real loser to this entire deepwater drilling ban though will be Baton Rouge. Baton Rouge is still a government town where taxes pay for government employees.

The state is relying on the offshore oil revenue to fortify up its budget along with taxes tied to jobs. We are going to see a two to three billion dollar hit to the state's budget, possibly more. Higher education is going to suffer some real chilling cuts.

You haven't seen job loses yet because Jindal doesn't want to address the major tax shortfall this is going to cause the state.
Posted by tigerpurple84
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2010
971 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 11:45 am to
quote:

I think it will be intersting to see if people bitch-n-moan while their grocery prices tripple, and they have to wait in line to buy $12 per gallon gas, while we have easily available oil that we are outlawed from producing.


But you are suggesting the variables for prices and consumer behavior will remain the same. Say gas does go up to 12 bucks a gallon. Even without any changes to MPG a car can get, there are ways to work with this.

People live in suburbs and drive to work. At $12/gallon for gas, you sell your house in Slidell and move to New Orleans where you work. You can walk to stores for food. So instead of using say 3 gallons a day of fuel, you might use 3 gallons a week.

I have a friend in Chicago who raises chickens on the roof of his condo, and the residents eat those eggs instead of buying eggs. There are ways to deal.

People will change. It's the one thing we can count on.
Posted by arlo
Member since Oct 2007
12376 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 11:56 am to
quote:

Say gas does go up to 12 bucks a gallon.


Stop right there. $12 gas means an economic meltdown in this country.
Posted by tigerpurple84
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2010
971 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:07 pm to
Stop right there. $12 gas means an economic meltdown in this country.

No it doesn't.

It just means that free enterprise is working and countries like China and India have more purchasing power for energy and demand-side market for petrol has not changed in the US.

Not even close to being an economic meltdown.
This post was edited on 6/4/10 at 12:09 pm
Posted by KLSU
Baton Rouge
Member since Sep 2003
11149 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:08 pm to
quote:

Stop right there. $12 gas means an economic meltdown in this country.


I agree. No way this administration will let this even come close to happening. There would be zero hope of re election.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63500 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:09 pm to
quote:

People live in suburbs and drive to work. At $12/gallon for gas, you sell your house in Slidell and move to New Orleans where you work. You can walk to stores for food. So instead of using say 3 gallons a day of fuel, you might use 3 gallons a week.
Riiiight. What about the folks in the suburbs that hypothetically move to the city... who buys their house from them at a high enough price they can afford to buy a residence in the city where prices are driven up by everyone else trying to do the same thing?
Posted by CootKilla
In a beer can/All dog's nightmares
Member since Jul 2007
6184 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:14 pm to
Work? What types of jobs will we be working?
Posted by tigerpurple84
Baton Rouge
Member since May 2010
971 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

What about the folks in the suburbs that hypothetically move to the city... who buys their house from them at a high enough price they can afford to buy a residence in the city where prices are driven up by everyone else trying to do the same thing?



You don't sell your house in the suburbs. You rent them at a price that is greater than your mortgage.

Or you find out who holds your mortgage, and if you are upside down, you default on it, take a bankruptcy hit, and start clean in a new city.

I don't know what cities you've lived in, but it's usually MORE expensive to live in the suburbs than a city. Things like commuting, fuel costs to get to destinations, buying food in bulk since you may not be close (5 mins) from a grocery and then having to throw it away.

Bigger houses in the suburbs have higher heating costs, etc etc.

Suburbs will be the new slums. See all those McMansions? Pelican Point for example...4000 sq ft, 4 bedroom house could easily house 20-30 people.

It'll be a matter of logistics.
Posted by arlo
Member since Oct 2007
12376 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:19 pm to
quote:

No it doesn't.

It just means that free enterprise is working and countries like China and India have more purchasing power for energy and demand-side market for petrol has not changed in the US.


The one way it doesn't is that the BHO Jangles inflation kicks in and $12 has today's purchasing power of $4.

How can you say free enterprise is working if we're awash in energy here, yet the Feds prevent companies from providing it?

It's pretty naive to think it would only affect commuters. Virtually everything you've bought was brought to you on a big truck. People who are having to pay more for energy have less to spend on discretionary items. It wouldn't just ripple through the economy, it would be a tidal wave.
Posted by arlo
Member since Oct 2007
12376 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:27 pm to
quote:

You don't sell your house in the suburbs. You rent them at a price that is greater than your mortgage.


To who? I thought everyone was going to live in the city.


quote:

Or you find out who holds your mortgage, and if you are upside down, you default on it, take a bankruptcy hit, and start clean in a new city.



quote:

I don't know what cities you've lived in, but it's usually MORE expensive to live in the suburbs than a city. Things like commuting, fuel costs to get to destinations, buying food in bulk since you may not be close (5 mins) from a grocery and then having to throw it away.


Really? Is that why people who work in places like DC and NYC have to commute on 3 hour train rides from the houses they can afford?

quote:

It'll be a matter of logistics.


The thing that frightens me the most these days is our leadership in DC has the same simplistic mentality as you.
Posted by Taxing Authority
Houston
Member since Feb 2010
63500 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:33 pm to
quote:

You don't sell your house in the suburbs. You rent them at a price that is greater than your mortgage.

[...]

Suburbs will be the new slums.
So you are envisioning reduced demand for suburban housing, degrading living conditions, and prices rising above current market values? Think. Does that sound reasonable?


quote:

See all those McMansions? Pelican Point for example...4000 sq ft, 4 bedroom house could easily house 20-30 people.
For that to happen, there would have to be more people living in the suburbs, not less!


quote:

I don't know what cities you've lived in, but it's usually MORE expensive to live in the suburbs than a city.
I live in Houston. Inside of the Loop. I don't knwo what dreamland you live in, but property, and goods are significantly higher here than in suburbs. Real estate is like $50-70/sqft higher. I'm sure it will go down with all the new demand, though!
Posted by arlo
Member since Oct 2007
12376 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 12:43 pm to
Whenever I hear guys like this, I remember this youtube.

Why do we have to pay for the land? The land's free! The food's free. All we have to do is sell it at the farmer's market.

Posted by Catman88
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
49125 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 1:11 pm to
quote:

People live in suburbs and drive to work. At $12/gallon for gas, you sell your house in Slidell and move to New Orleans where you work. You can walk to stores for food. So instead of using say 3 gallons a day of fuel, you might use 3 gallons a week.


Wow I hate when jackasses like you that have not a fricking clue about economics just make like things like this is so easy and not problem at all..



I moved AWAY from Baton Rouge because of the school system and crime. But I should move back to BR and screw my family because you want gas to be 12 dollars? There is ZERO infrastructure to accomodate any of your idea as well! You think traffic in BR is bad now? What is everyone in LP and Ascention and WBR had to just pick up and move into the city?

You seriously think BR can support a 400k influx in people? Do you have any idea how high BR housing prices would get because of NO SUPPLY? New Orleans would have to house close to 1 million extra people. Where the frick are they gonna live?
Posted by Catman88
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
49125 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 1:14 pm to
Please accept this invitation to discuss this proposal on the Money Talk board. It would be fun
Posted by Catman88
Baton Rouge, LA
Member since Dec 2004
49125 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 1:20 pm to
quote:

People live in suburbs and drive to work. At $12/gallon for gas, you sell your house in Slidell and move to New Orleans where you work. You can walk to stores for food. So instead of using say 3 gallons a day of fuel, you might use 3 gallons a week.


Wonder if this idiot realizes that almost everything at any grocery store is shipped in via 18 wheeler whose gas mileage is a lot worse than the car driven from Slidell to NOLA. It is not delivered on the back of a fricking unicorn. Milk alone would cost more than a steak would today.

What he is proposing is for everyone to go back to the 1800s. Yea that progress..
This post was edited on 6/4/10 at 1:22 pm
Posted by CootKilla
In a beer can/All dog's nightmares
Member since Jul 2007
6184 posts
Posted on 6/4/10 at 1:26 pm to
I would still like him to tell me what type of jobs all these people will have. Oh yeah that's right we can all be census employees
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