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re: Winter Storm Leon Updates - No More OP Updates..

Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:04 pm to
Posted by Bestbank Tiger
Premium Member
Member since Jan 2005
71446 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:04 pm to
Be nice to get some sneaux.
This post was edited on 1/21/21 at 3:39 pm
Posted by Prominentwon
LSU, McNeese St. Fan
Member since Jan 2005
93775 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:07 pm to
They're expecting Lake Charles to maybe get an inch. I'm not expecting even that.

Honestly, this is being way overblown, IMO. This always happens with winter events.

Seems like when they expect it, it never happens. When they don't, like this past week, we get hammered.

Meteorologists here forecast winter weather like Louisiana people drive in winter weather
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:10 pm to
my copy/paste with small explanation, maybe rds can elaborate.



This is the latest GFS model. It is only one model of many used to predict the weather. It is showing 4-5 inches of snow depth for Southeast Louisiana. For the last system that came through a couple days ago, this model didn't show anything happening at all.
This post was edited on 1/26/14 at 4:14 pm
Posted by TiptonInSC
Aiken, SC
Member since Dec 2012
18927 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:12 pm to
7-8 inches of snow in my part of SC?

This place will be a chaotic hellhole if this happens.
Posted by LSUJuice
Back in Houston
Member since Apr 2004
17683 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:13 pm to
Not much in Houston
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
97735 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:14 pm to
looks like we'll miss it to the east, I got too much shite to do to take another day off work for this crap
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:16 pm to
quote:

looks like we'll miss it to the east, I got too much shite to do to take another day off work for this crap


where do you mean will miss it? 3 inches in this area coupled with the ice would cripple the area..
This post was edited on 1/26/14 at 4:17 pm
Posted by soleckma
Member since Nov 2013
994 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:16 pm to
According to that map. I'm suppose to get 20 inches. My arse that happens. But there's already like 3 ft so who knows
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:18 pm to
quote:

According to that map. I'm suppose to get 20 inches. My arse that happens. But there's already like 3 ft so who knows

Ha just talked to my dad up north, they've been in a level 3 emergency for 2 weeks now.
This post was edited on 1/26/14 at 4:18 pm
Posted by Traffic Circle
Down the Rabbit Hole
Member since Nov 2013
4282 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:18 pm to
Wunderground has backed down from 1-3 inches to 1".
Posted by TH03
Mogadishu
Member since Dec 2008
171080 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:20 pm to
quote:

The NAM came in a bit slower



Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:22 pm to
thats probably my favorite gif of all time
Posted by Arkla Missy
Ark-La-Miss
Member since Jan 2013
10288 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:22 pm to
quote:

Wunderground has backed down from 1-3 inches to 1".

Doesn't matter here. One inch or one foot has the same effect. Grocery stores are already running out of bread & batteries.
Posted by rds dc
Member since Jun 2008
19822 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:26 pm to
quote:

my copy/paste with small explanation, maybe rds can elaborate.


I don't know anything about the algorithms that InstantWeather uses for their snow maps. I do know that surface snowfall maps are pretty inaccurate, esp. since most use some default water-to-snow ratio. Snow depth maps are even more questionable.

I noticed that on the 18z InstantWeahter snow maps that the "snowfall" and "snow depth" maps don't jive at all Their algorithms might count sleet as snow and be including that in the "snow depth" map. There really isn't anyway to tell what the snowfall will look like without looking at the forecast soundings and figuring some snow ratios. Typically in this type of setup, the best snow will be on the northern fringe of the precip shied unless the cold air over performs and is deeper than expected.
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
97735 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:27 pm to
Lafayette isn't highlighted on your map
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36748 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:29 pm to
fin aren't you in Lafayette? That pic is showing snow there man ... or am I just reading it totally wrong??
Posted by GEAUXmedic
Premium Member
Member since Nov 2011
41598 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:30 pm to
quote:

Their algorithms might count sleet as snow and be including that in the "snow depth" map.


i noticed this with the weatherbell maps.. i didn't think instant weather was as bad though thanks.

eta: see the ridiculous amounts on the weatherbell maps

This post was edited on 1/26/14 at 4:36 pm
Posted by tiger91
In my own little world
Member since Nov 2005
36748 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:31 pm to
I'm seeing 2 -4 inches for Lafayette ... am I nuts? I did go for a run this am -- lack of oxygen??
Posted by NorthEndZone
Member since Dec 2008
11476 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:38 pm to
I guess this is really going to happen this time. We only had a very cold rain in S. Lafourche last week.

Tuesday Night Freezing rain, possibly mixed with sleet before midnight, then a chance of snow and sleet. Low around 25. Blustery, with a north wind 15 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

This post was edited on 1/26/14 at 4:40 pm
Posted by yellowfin
Coastal Bar
Member since May 2006
97735 posts
Posted on 1/26/14 at 4:38 pm to
Not covered under winter storm watch

quote:





that's the only pic i looked at
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