re: Winter Storm Leon Updates - No More OP Updates..

my wife wont believe me that she wont have school tues & wed in metairie. am i wrong thinking that

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my wife wont believe me that she wont have school tues & wed in metairie. am i wrong thinking that

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if the forecasts don't change she definitely wont have school Tuesday. She will only be out Wednesday if it snows/sleets Tuesday, because it wont melt by Wednesday morning.

Latest from Jay Grymes updated at 9:01

LINK

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Posted: Jan 26, 2014 6:24 PM CST Updated: Jan 26, 2014 9:01 PM CST
Jay Grymes

Snow Potential could reach a total of more than one inch of snow in Baton Rouge by Wednesday morning. Snow Potential could reach a total of more than one inch of snow in Baton Rouge by Wednesday morning.

BATON ROUGE, LA (AP) -

Here we go again? Possibly. The National Weather Service has posted a Winter Storm Watch for the entire WAFB viewing area. The watch is in effect for Tuesday morning through Wednesday morning. More importantly, all indications are that the Watch will be upgraded to a Warning sometime Monday.

A Winter Storm Watch indicates a potential for snow, sleet and/or ice accumulations; the upgrade to a Winter Storm Warning would reflect a change in threat status from "potential" to "likely."

For the second time in only five days, the Baton Rouge metro area and most of the WAFB viewing area are under the gun for a significant winter-weather event. In fact, early indications are that we may see greater accumulations this time compared to the snow/sleet/ice mess that hit the region late last week.

And like last week's winter blitz, this will be a double-whammy of bitterly cold air combining with a "wet" disturbance moving across the region, providing the ammunition for winter precipitation.

So just how cold? Next week's installment of this winter's run of Arctic blasts will take Baton Rouge area temperatures into the 20°s for Tuesday morning, with highs possibly remaining below freezing throughout Tuesday and well into Wednesday for many WAFB communities (not unlike last Friday). By Wednesday morning, many of us could be looking at low temperatures near 20° with wake-up ‘teens for those near and north of the LA/MS state line!

At the same time, a disturbance working out of the western Gulf will provide the moisture to fuel the winter mess. This weather set-up is the classic snow-maker for south Louisiana and southern Mississippi and often leaves its mark throughout the South. The disturbance will track from the western Gulf towards the east and northeast, taking advantage of the Arctic air mass sitting over the entire Deep South and producing a swath of winter weather all the way to the Atlantic Coast. That scenario has resulted in Winter Storm Watches being posted from Texas all the way to the Carolinas.

Computer guidance is in fairly good agreement with this picture. In fact, some of the models are rather aggressive in terms of snow and ice accumulations for the metro area. Several models are showing better than one inch accumulations from Tuesday into Wednesday, with a couple of models even hinting at larger totals by Wednesday's sunrise.

The timing for the onset of the winter mix is still a bit unclear, but the main storm energy looks to arrive during the latter half of Tuesday. However, we are getting indications from some of the guidance that the first signs of a wintry mix of sleet and snow could start arriving as early as Tuesday morning.

This could mean two days of significant weather impacts for the area. Anything that falls on Tuesday will have the potential to stick given the bitterly cold temperatures and an early Tuesday start to the winter mix would surely complicate the Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes. In addition, given the forecasted temperatures, everything on the ground lingers into Wednesday.

What's more, unlike the burst of spring-like temperatures that arrived last Saturday following the Friday shutdown, temperatures will struggle to get into the 40°s for Wednesday, helping to keep the winter mix around even longer.

In fact, after a chilly Wednesday afternoon, most of us deal with another ‘hard' freeze for Thursday morning before a warming trend finally sets in late Thursday.

Had enough of winter yet?

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This could mean two days of significant weather impacts for the area. Anything that falls on Tuesday will have the potential to stick given the bitterly cold temperatures and an early Tuesday start to the winter mix would surely complicate the Tuesday afternoon and evening commutes. In addition, given the forecasted temperatures, everything on the ground lingers into Wednesday.

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LSU is definitely closing on Tuesday. The traffic is already worse on Tuesdays and Thursdays. Could you imagine trying to leave LSU at 2:00 when its snowing/sleeting outside and cars sliding into each other or going off in the ditch. Its too big of a risk to not cancel class Tuesday.

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I think by 4:30 pm tomorrow, LSU will have announced that they're closed on Tuesday.

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I just hope they don't wait until 5:30 in the morning to announce it like they did Friday

You think airlines will have info by 4:30 tomorrow if they're going to be flying into BR?

That'll probably be a later decision. I wouldn't be surprised if airlines don't cancel flights until late Monday night.

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I just hope they don't wait until 5:30 in the morning to announce it like they did Friday

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wouldn't shock me if they wait until the last minute.

The NAM, which was great with Fridays event, is predicting snow only as far south as central Baton Rouge. Points southward would see a couple inches of ice.

Timeline posted by WAFB Weather at 11:03 pm