re: Tornado! Cards vs Cubs

Typed too soon...another line developing to the south west...May be a longer evening than I thought

quote:

---

There's no way that'll have enough juice to produce much severe weather. The main line is going to choke it out.

---

Yep, HRRR shows this line sucking up all of the energy, but recovering by tomorrow morning

quote:

---

The rainfall has been glorious given our drought conditions

---

The drought busting has been amazing! We had a researcher come to our office last summer and he did a presentation on how we would never see the DFW area lakes back to capacity. Looks like his research was kind of a bust

quote:

---

Is settling down but seems we have a repeat tomorrow.

---

Tomorrow is interesting but, as of tonight, it looks like the main tornado threat will shift NW towards Kansas. The same areas as today will also be under the gun but conditions don't appear as volatile. A lot will depend on what the storms tonight do and when and where storms fire tomorrow. Storms in Kansas might line out faster than down south, so it could be that the main tornado threat shifts SE towards the I35 corridor from OKC to DFW as the day goes on.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SE CO...SW KS AND A SMALL
PART OF NW OK...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS TO WRN OK AND THE ERN TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO
N-CNTRL TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN
GREAT PLAINS...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL
STATES...

...SUMMARY...
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THE MOST PROBABLE CORRIDOR FOR TORNADOES AND
VERY LARGE HAIL IS FROM EAST-CENTRAL COLORADO TO THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA FROM MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING.

...SYNOPSIS...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY SHOULD TRACK E TO
THE SRN ROCKIES BY 10/00Z...BEFORE ADVANCING MORE SLOWLY NE OVER THE
CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TONIGHT. LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR TODAY OVER
SE/E-CNTRL CO. A WARM FRONT SHOULD DEVELOP E OVER KS TODAY AND
EVENTUALLY NE TOWARDS THE MID-MO VALLEY TONIGHT. DRYLINE WILL MIX E
OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BUT ITS ADVANCEMENT SHOULD BE SLOWED BY
MORNING CONVECTION. CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/CURRENT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN WILL ATTEMPT TO
ADVANCE N BUT MAY BE STUNTED BY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SHOULD OVERTAKE THE DRYLINE TONIGHT.

...CNTRL/SRN GREAT PLAINS...
ANOTHER MESSY/COMPLEX FORECAST AS EXTENSIVE CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING
OCCURRED ON FRI AND MORNING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING.
CONVECTIVELY PARAMETRIZED GUIDANCE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE TOO UNSTABLE
IN THE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR N OF THE LARGE-SCALE CONVECTIVE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY FROM N-CNTRL TX TO THE PERMIAN BASIN.
WHILE A HIGHER-END SCENARIO IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE TODAY...BUST
POTENTIAL IS ALSO APPARENT. FOR THIS OUTLOOK...WILL FOCUS ON TWO
CORRIDORS OF MORE CONCENTRATED SEVERE POTENTIAL WITHIN A BROADER
ORGANIZED SEVERE RISK.

TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP THIS MORNING IN BETWEEN ONGOING ACTIVITY OVER
ERN CO AND THE PERMIAN BASIN. LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL BECOME
PRONOUNCED AS MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/DCVA INCREASE AND ROBUST
LOW-LEVEL WAA OCCURS ATOP THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW IN W TX. ISOLATED
LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THESE EARLY-DAY STORMS.
SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY INTENSIFY IN CONCERT WITH THE DIURNAL
HEATING CYCLE...PARTICULARLY ALONG THE CURRENT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS
IT ATTEMPTS TO ADVANCE N OVER N TX AND OK. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR PROFILES
WOULD FAVOR ALL SEVERE HAZARDS...BUT LIKELY MESSY CONVECTIVE MODE
AND LACK OF STRONG DIABATIC HEATING SUGGESTS THE OVERALL RISK MAY BE
LIMITED.

STEEPEST TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD LIE THIS AFTERNOON FROM
E-CNTRL CO TO THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. BENEATH AND N OF AN INTENSE
MID-LEVEL JET /AROUND 75 KT AT 500 MB/ CURLING FROM THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS TO WRN KS...WIND PROFILES WOULD SEEMINGLY BE FAVORABLE FOR
SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND A RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT-SIZED LARGE
HAIL AND TORNADOES. BUT VEER-BACK SIGNATURES ARE EVIDENT IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GIVEN THE RELATIVELY MERIDIONAL WIND PROFILE. ALONG WITH
CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE AND DIABATIC
HEATING...WILL REFRAIN FROM MODERATE-RISK TYPE TORNADO PROBABILITIES
THIS OUTLOOK. SOME CONSOLIDATION OF LATE DAY CONVECTION INTO AN MCS
ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL KS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE. THE RISK FOR SEVERE
WINDS MAY INCREASE...BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO WARRANT ENHANCED
PROBABILITIES GIVEN CONCERNS OVER THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITH ERN
EXTENT THIS EVENING.

FARTHER S FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TO N-CNTRL TX...AN EXPANDING
CLUSTER OF STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP TONIGHT AS THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT
IMPINGES ON THE WRN PERIPHERY OF THE PERSISTENT MARITIME TROPICAL
AIR. CONVECTION SHOULD PRIMARILY REMAIN ANAFRONTAL GIVEN THE
ORIENTATION OF DEEP SHEAR/ASCENT RELATIVE TO THE FRONT. LARGE
BUOYANCY AND STRONG EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL. WITH MULTIPLE EPISODES OF
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY AND TONIGHT...HAVE
MAINTAINED/INCREASED AREAL EXTENT OF THE ENHANCED RISK.

From the SPC 1630 update for today...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1136 AM CDT SAT MAY 09 2015

VALID 091630Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLNS SE
INTO PARTS OF TX AND THE ARKLATEX...


...SRN PLNS TO ARKLATEX TODAY/TNGT...
ANOTHER COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO UNFOLD OVER THE
SRN PLNS...WITH SEVERAL AREAS OF ENHANCED CONCERN. FIRST...HEATING
ALONG DIFFUSE W-E OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL/NE TX EWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX MAY BE THE FOCUS FOR SCTD SUPERCELLS/SUPERCELL CLUSTERS
LATER TODAY INTO TNGT AS SFC HEATING DESTABILIZES AMPLY SHEARED
REGION. COUPLED WITH WEAK ASCENT PROVIDED BY AN APPARENT UPR IMPULSE
AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF ENHANCED SWLY FLOW ALOFT...SETUP COULD YIELD
DMGG WIND/TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL FROM STORM CLUSTERS WITH EMBEDDED
HP-TYPE STORMS/BOWING STRUCTURES.

quote:

---

From the SPC 1630 update for today...

---

DFW also added the to the 10% tornado

Because your mom

quote:

---

Because your mom

---

Multiple watches and warning for central and western Oklahoma. Looks like things are starting to ramp up for the afternoon.

It has been a snoozer so far. The chasers are all clustered west of Dallas and around Dodge City with nothing to chase.