re: Russia to commence invasion of the Ukraine next week, Western defense officials believe

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Biden needs distractions in a bad way.

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This terrifies me. The covid narrative is crashing hard and they desperately need a new talking point.

We are in agreement that they want to act sooner, rather than later. I am just saying there are far more paved routes, railroad access, and technology available today that makes the Rasputitsa not as significant as it was for Hitler 80 years ago. They would want to avoid, but that wouldn't be what stopped them, and I do still think this will be over quickly. Guidance, drones, and other technology allows you to extend your reach much more efficiently today.

What you’re not taking into account is that while technology has vastly advanced since WWII, some things still remain the same. What I’m talking about is logistics. Those armored and mechanized forces are going to have to deploy cross-country. The tanks should handle all but the worst of the mud. Although even that is not guaranteed, especially over ground that’s already been churned up by other vehicles. The same is true of the tracked APCs and fighting vehicles. Even if the first echelon vehicles can make a go of, the follow-on forces will increasingly struggle in ever worsening conditions. Yes, even modern tanks can and do get stuck in mud. I speak from experience.

Also, those tanks and other tracked vehicles are still reliant on their logistics trains that keep them supplied with literally everything from food, ammo, fuel, replacement parts, etc. Those items are transported via trucks. The armored forces, and infantry for that matter, can only go where their logistics trains can support them. That’s why the Rasputitsa would make a Russian invasion a nightmare logistically speaking.

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three Western and defense officials tell me.

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six US and Western officials tell me,

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So....is that 9 total confirmations? Or, 6 total with three Western and defense officials and three US officials?

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While ninety nine red balloons blow by

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I’ve got Spotify playing in my office and this song just came on when you posted this.

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The version in German or the version in English? Either way, that music is now stuck in my head

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Deutsch natürlich

It won't be Barbarossa in reverse, at least not initially. Capturing and occupying hostile territory is a last resort, if it's in his plan at all. He wants a client state in his orbit instead of the west's orbit, and a template for bringing the Baltics back into the Bear's embrace, and even daring to dream about Poland if he's feeling particularly ambitious.

His first choice was to bluff and threaten his way into that outcome, but that hasn't worked. Next he'll probably try a false flag operation as a pretext for a limited strike to topple the government and replace it with a puppet regime enforced by Russian "peacekeepers.". This is exactly what he did in Kazakhstan a few weeks ago. It worked then. If the Ukrainians prove more resilient and don't fold in a week or so, it means Putin fricked up. At that point he'll look weak if he doesn't go all in and we've got a major European war on our hands.

These are the same people who've been saying Iran is an existential threat for 4 decades (to no avail) and who claimed Saddam had WMD's. War is a racket.

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Putin wants to take Ukraine, there’s nothing to stop him. He knows it.

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Not so fast. You forget that the Ukraine just mobilized they're new EM-50 Urban Assault Vehicles they bought from the U.S.
Russia could be in for a big surprise.