re: Preliminary Ratings: Lacombe Tornado - EF1; NOLA/Arabi Tornado - EF3

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remember we had a derecho roll through BR in 2015. That shite was freaky.

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Was that the storm that had it looking like night time at 8 in the morning? I was living in Lafayette at the time and was driving to work as that was moving in. Absolutely eerie

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wait... when was the storm that knock the train off the Huey P. in Jefferson Parish?

wasn't that the derecho?

Enhanced now for Southeast Louisiana

go ahead... toot that horn, Duke

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Leave your phone close to your bed with warnings enabled or a weather radio if you have one.

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This. I hate a warm front in these scenarios and that 10% hatched is roughly where one should be.

Hopefully nothing happens but be prepared.

We are almost to the point of nowcasting, but the key is that the potential is there for tornadoes and possibly a strong one or two.

I believe a 10% hatched tornado area for SE LA only happens one or two times a year.

I hope the forecast doesn't verify to any great degree and we just get nuisance small limbs broken and very small hail if any, but we have to be ready for worse.

Many people are still in Ida recovery mode.

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...Southern Louisiana/Southern Mississippi...
The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will move toward the
Arklatex tonight as a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens in the
lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front will move
from east Texas eastward across Louisiana tonight. Surface dewpoints
along and southwest of the front will be in the 60s F, with MLCAPE
likely reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are
expected to form this evening in east Texas near the axis of the
low-level jet and expand quickly in coverage, moving
east-northeastward across the Arklatex tonight. Thunderstorms are
also expected to develop southward across central and southern
Louisiana after midnight.

RAP forecast soundings along the most favorable corridor for severe
from southern and central Louisiana eastward into southwest
Mississippi late tonight have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear
around 40 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 275 to
325 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for supercells and
tornadoes. A strong tornado will be possible, mainly in southeast
Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, after 08Z when low-level shear
will become maximized across the lower Mississippi Valley.
Supercells will also be capable of producing wind damage and
isolated large hail. Due to increasing potential for tornadoes
overnight, will add an enhanced across parts of southeast Louisiana
and southwest Mississippi.

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...Southern Louisiana/Southern Mississippi... The upper-level trough in the southern Plains will move toward the Arklatex tonight as a 40 to 60 kt low-level jet strengthens in the lower Mississippi Valley. At the surface, a warm front will move from east Texas eastward across Louisiana tonight. Surface dewpoints along and southwest of the front will be in the 60s F, with MLCAPE likely reaching the 1500 to 2500 J/kg range. Thunderstorms are expected to form this evening in east Texas near the axis of the low-level jet and expand quickly in coverage, moving east-northeastward across the Arklatex tonight. Thunderstorms are also expected to develop southward across central and southern Louisiana after midnight.

RAP forecast soundings along the most favorable corridor for severe from southern and central Louisiana eastward into southwest Mississippi late tonight have MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg, 0-6 km shear around 40 knots and 0-3 km storm relative helicities in the 275 to 325 m2/s2 range. This should be favorable for supercells and tornadoes. A strong tornado will be possible, mainly in southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi, after 08Z when low-level shear will become maximized across the lower Mississippi Valley. Supercells will also be capable of producing wind damage and isolated large hail. Due to increasing potential for tornadoes overnight, will add an enhanced across parts of southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi.

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Really not liking the trends with this latest update. The LLJ is a bit stronger, CAPE has gotten a boost, and the shear is there.

The 10% hatched makes sense. You folks pay attention and have a way to get a warning and have it wake you up.

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We are almost to the point of nowcasting, but the key is that the potential is there for tornadoes and possibly a strong one or two.

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This right here.

Doesnt mean it'll happen but gotta be ready for it when the potential is there.

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I hope the forecast doesn't verify to any great degree and we just get nuisance small limbs broken and very small hail if any, but we have to be ready for worse.

Many people are still in Ida recovery mode.

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Also this.

saw some lightning here a bit ago in CenLA

Yeah, there's a good bit of electricity with that storm near you. All of them, really.

The line blows up just East of the NOLA area when it is almost in the Gulf. That'll do.

It also doesn't look quite as Derechoish into Central/North AL for the morning. Really interested to see what it does with the afternoon storms tomorrow in my area.