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Posted on 8/26/17 at 9:55 pm to Duke
Over land, the dry air doesn't need to overrun it to end worst-case scenarios. The storm is already breaking up. A big dose of dry air will dissipate it further. It'll drop from 15-20" predictions down to 3-6" predictions. Still lots of rain for saturated soils, but not catastrophic.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 9:56 pm to rds dc
(no message)
This post was edited on 4/15/23 at 5:14 am
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:00 pm to msutiger
Harvey related in LA - a cell developed between Morganza and Simmesport and just dropped 6" in the last hour.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:01 pm to LSUgusto
quote:
Over land, the dry air doesn't need to overrun it to end worst-case scenarios. The storm is already breaking up. A big dose of dry air will dissipate it further. It'll drop from 15-20" predictions down to 3-6" predictions. Still lots of rain for saturated soils, but not catastrophic.
Losing organization yes, but still a low pressure system and the flow will continue out of the gulf until that dissapates. It's not going to funnel in that big plume of dry air and suddenly stabilize.
I understand where you're coming from, but it doesn't apply in this scenario. And for the record, I will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong about it.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:03 pm to LSUgusto
quote:
Over land, the dry air doesn't need to overrun it to end worst-case scenarios. The storm is already breaking up. A big dose of dry air will dissipate it further. It'll drop from 15-20" predictions down to 3-6" predictions. Still lots of rain for saturated soils, but not catastrophic.
You should tell that to the HRRR, which sees the dry air, hence the minimal totals on the SW side of the circulation, but still rings up rainfall tallies of 21"+ over the next 18 hours.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:05 pm to slackster
The shite has officially arrived at my house. I'm in the Heights. We probably got 10 inches since 6 o'clock. My street is the worst than in either of the flooding situations in the past couple years. Our house has the never flooded and I don't think any of the homes on our street will flood during this but the street is completely flooded. All of our water is going to flow into the canal that leads to Buffalo Bayou and white oak bayou
This post was edited on 8/26/17 at 10:06 pm
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:07 pm to mule74
Already 17 water rescues in the past hour. - Shelby Webb
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:07 pm to msutiger
quote:
Harris, Fort Bend and Brazoria County will drown if that happens. Let's pray it doesn't
Doesn't look good...
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:11 pm to slackster
What are your thoughts on that area developing ?
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:12 pm to jlntiger
quote:
What are your thoughts on that area developing ?
It's happening. Whether it looks like the previous band, who knows, but the radar makes it clear the development is happening as we speak.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:13 pm to Duke
quote:Same here. The longer it stays away from the gulf and gets a good drink of dry air, it won't be nearly as bad as predicted.
And for the record, I will gladly eat crow if I'm wrong about it.
By the way, predictions had it dumping 35-40" of rain over a period of time. Do you think that prediction is on track?
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:15 pm to slackster
Thanks to bad I am right in its path
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:16 pm to LSUgusto
quote:
By the way, predictions had it dumping 35-40" of rain over a period of time. Do you think that prediction is on track?
It's dumped 12-14" south of Sugar Land in the past 12 hours and it isn't supposed to move for the next 3+ days, so yeah, I'd say it is on track for those numbers, if not more.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:17 pm to jlntiger
quote:
Thanks to bad I am right in its path
Stay safe. Best of luck.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:17 pm to LSUgusto
quote:
By the way, predictions had it dumping 35-40" of rain over a period of time. Do you think that prediction is on track?
On track currently for numerous locations. Probably won't be a blanket as large as shown on maps, but I think anyone in the area could see those ridiculous numbers.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:19 pm to List Eater
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:23 pm to slackster
Hopefully at least a weaker band. That shite that just passed through, we can only handle so many of those....
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:23 pm to Duke
quote:If so, God bless. I'm hoping for the best. That eastward drift is concerning me.
I think anyone in the area could see those ridiculous numbers.
Posted on 8/26/17 at 10:24 pm to slackster
Thanks for your input on both of the threads over the last couple of days. Several posters on here ( you , rcs ds, etc ) deserve a lot of credit and thanks
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