re: NOAA Releases 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season Outlook

Whelp, that makes pretty much every major forecast/modeling group in agreement on an above average season.
Now, we wait.

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When I was little the cone was the cone. It was steady. Didn't move. The hurricane could move around inside the cone but it was limited to that area. These days the cone is just a suggestion and the hurricane can end up wherever it wants.

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Sounds like, just with everything else nowadays, the NHC has started using shitty cones manufactured in China.
Damn cheap labor!

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What I find amusing is when a particular long range model shows a category 4/5 hurricane in the central GOM 268 hours out.

We can’t predict where a cold front boundry will lie in 72 hours. A 72 forecast might have a cold front boundary from St.Louis to Little Rock to Dallas to Austin when in reality the front might be from Nashville to Monroe to lake charles.

Never trust upperlevel features more than 6/8 days out and surface features 5/6 days out.

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Part of the problem is the ease at which the general public can access such information and models.
It is a double-edged sword. Freedom of information vs that information being available to every Tom and Hairy Dick around without a clue.

Back during the late 1980’s, I would visit my local NWS office and have access to NHC products that very few people even knew about. Nowadays, the average 12 year old can call these products up and thinks that they are Max Mayfield.

I will say this...the future meteorologists have access to knowledge and information that I did not have when I was 12 years old. Faster learning can take place if one studies science and weather during a students formative years.