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Message

re: Morganza Spillway may or may not open for a 3rd time -- lack of clear info from ACoE

Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:32 pm to
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
14865 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:32 pm to
quote:

SOME explanation other than "because the water isn't as high" would ease the minds of many. 


You want them to make shite up?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89751 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Seems pretty cut and dry to me, no?


But they thought it would be. My point is that you can't expect to tell the public:

"Guys, were going to open a flood control structure for only the 3rd time in history on June 6th."

...

"Nah, never mind, we won't need to"

and expect the public to continue as usual. Come out and say why your original projection, and secondary projection, was wrong.
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89751 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:36 pm to
quote:

You want them to make shite up?


No, I want them to expand on that reason. Some insight into how the sausage is made would be helpful when you've already come out and told people it would likely be opening.
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
14865 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:36 pm to
Their projection was wrong.

Do you think they know WHY it's wrong?

Good grief.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:38 pm to
quote:


No, I want them to expand on that reason. Some insight into how the sausage is made would be helpful when you've already come out and told people it would likely be opening.


I agree. Tell the people why isn’t the water as high as they thought it would be? What changed?
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89751 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:38 pm to
quote:

Do you think they know WHY it's wrong?


I would hope so, and I'm almost certain they know why it was wrong too.

I'm not insinuating they're hiding something, but explaining why it was a false alarm builds trust with the public IMO.
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
14865 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

Tell the people why isn’t the water as high as they thought it would be? 


JFC. This is one of the reasons I left Louisiana.

Bunch of fricking tards.
Posted by Duke
Dillon, CO
Member since Jan 2008
36408 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:39 pm to
quote:

Do you think they know WHY it's wrong?


I'd really hope so.

If they have no idea what's different, how could they know the newer projections aren't wrong?
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:40 pm to
quote:


Do you think they know WHY it's wrong?



They better know why
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

This is one of the reasons I left Louisiana.


quote:


Bunch of fricking tards.



The feeling is mutual
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:42 pm to
quote:

Guys, were going to open a flood control structure for only the 3rd time in history on June 6th."


I dont recall them ever saying this. All schedules were tentative.

quote:

Come out and say why your original projection, and secondary projection, was wrong.


They said in the beginning why they would open it. Pretty safe to assume that since they may not have to open it is because the reason they thought, didnt come to fruition.

Does saying " We arent opening it because the water isnt gonna get as high as we initially thought" gonna make a difference? Or do you want the full explanation on why they thought it would get that high, and now why they think it wont?

The whole idea of " they need to say this to make people feel better" is bullshite. The experts on this never said anything to make people panic. ( Except for maybe those with assets in the spillway)
Posted by Theboot32
Member since Jan 2016
2451 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:45 pm to
quote:


JFC. This is one of the reasons I left Louisiana. 

Bunch of fricking tards. ?



Glad ya left, we have enough people that just blindly listen and dont worry about explanations here
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:47 pm to
quote:

Or do you want the full explanation on why they thought it would get that high, and now why they think it wont?



Yes
Posted by FelicianaTigerfan
Comanche County
Member since Aug 2009
26059 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

Or do you want the full explanation on why they thought it would get that high, and now why they think it wont?



quote:

Yes


Ok here it is. Computer models predict with a certain amount of accurate water levels. The models suggest a possible topping of the spillway. As time has progressed, the models have shown this likely wont happen. This is based on current data and always subject to change

Now run tell dat

Posted by LSUFanHouston
NOLA
Member since Jul 2009
39197 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:50 pm to
quote:

Do you think they know WHY it's wrong?


I sure AF hope they do...
Posted by OysterPoBoy
City of St. George
Member since Jul 2013
40586 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:51 pm to
This is just like when they move the cone.

This kind of stuff used to not happen. I think social media plays a big role.
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
14865 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:52 pm to
BUT DEAR GOD, WHY WERE THE COMPUTERS WRONG!

omg!
Posted by slackster
Houston
Member since Mar 2009
89751 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

Does saying " We arent opening it because the water isnt gonna get as high as we initially thought" gonna make a difference? Or do you want the full explanation on why they thought it would get that high, and now why they think it wont?


I want to know what's changed and why.

For example, on 5/25 and 5/28, two days before and one day after the June 3rd date was pegged by the ACoE, the MR @ Natchez was forecast to 59' crest. As of today, it's still forecast to crest at 58.5'. Are those 6 inches really enough to go from we plan to open on June 3rd to we're postponing it indefinitely?

I know the trigger is either A) the flow through Red River Landing or B) the height @ the Morganza structure itself. I know B was the concern in this case, not A.

If they came out and said the water has been so high for so long that scouring has resulted in lower heights than forecasted despite accurate discharge forecasts, I'd be a happy camper. Explaining, in relatively simple terms, what has changed and why is a proper course of action when dealing with the public IMO.
Posted by tgrbaitn08
Member since Dec 2007
148031 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:52 pm to
quote:

Computer models predict with a certain amount of accurate water levels. The models suggest a possible topping of the spillway. As time has progressed, the models have shown this likely wont happen. This is based on current data and always subject to change


No shite.

What caused the change?
Posted by TigerBait1971
PTC GA
Member since Oct 2014
14865 posts
Posted on 6/6/19 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

If they came out and said the water has been so high for so long that scouring has resulted in lower heights than forecasted despite accurate discharge forecasts, I'd be a happy camper. Explaining, in relatively simple terms, what has changed and why is a proper course of action when dealing with the public IMO.


You think average T-bob coonass will understand all that or believe it?

"It be all politcal,cher"
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