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Message
re: Hurricane Florence - Catastrophic Flooding Potential
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:13 am to CobraCommander83
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:13 am to CobraCommander83
quote:
the southeastern coast of the US shaped the way it is due to hurricanes
I don’t need a doctorate or masters degree to say barring the unique localized land features (such a cut or a new pass on a barrier island), the path of the storms is shaped by the landmass.
1
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:14 am to rds dc
Isaac heading right to us when we go to Cancun lol
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:14 am to rds dc
quote:
Down to 24.34N 56.17W, this is when most of the models have it start lifting north. The next two fixes will be interesting to see if that lift will start on time or not.
well... I put it in the post above but I'll restate it
from eye drops 1 & 2 (~ 67 minutes) Florence moved 0.0 N 0.2 W
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:22 am to TH03
I think it's too early to forecast Isaac. You'll know later this week if it's a real gulf threat. It has a few things that need to play out it seems. Mostly how strong it gets and florence's interaction with the ridge.
Models past few days been consistent on it tracking westward then fizzling out somewhere in the caribbean. It could slip under that ridge and turn north though? Not sure if it's too late for that but I would think not. Depends on florence. Good news is they've been pretty consistent past few days both Euro/GFS on the track and both have it just dying even though it reaches hurricane status. Seems it runs into a lot of vertical shear moving through caribbean.
Models past few days been consistent on it tracking westward then fizzling out somewhere in the caribbean. It could slip under that ridge and turn north though? Not sure if it's too late for that but I would think not. Depends on florence. Good news is they've been pretty consistent past few days both Euro/GFS on the track and both have it just dying even though it reaches hurricane status. Seems it runs into a lot of vertical shear moving through caribbean.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:28 am to rt3
If Florence stalls let's all hope it does it out to sea. The estimated rain potential is insanity. Would that be the most ever focused in one area on record?
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:31 am to Tarps99
quote:
the path of the storms is shaped by the landmass.
How does Mississippi shape storms?
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:33 am to deuce985
quote:
If Florence stalls let's all hope it does it out to sea. The estimated rain potential is insanity. Would that be the most ever focused in one area on record?
pretty sure Harvey holds the record... like 60+ in.
Lane... the storm that just impacted Hawaii... finished like 3rd with some 50+ in. of rain
if I remember the graphic TWC showed a while back... 4 of the top 5 rain producing tropical systems in the US were Hawaii storms... but they cheat b/c they have all those volcanoes that help squeeze as much moisture out of the air as possible... Houston didn't have that at play for Harvey
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:35 am to rt3
That's what I was going to ask did they have final results on Harvey? Florence has estimated totals over 80 inches I couldn't imagine that right here. Hell, in the last major flood we had here we got almost 30 inches and that's the most ever. I was on an island while the rest of my neighborhood was wiped out. It would be a lake here in LA.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:38 am to OysterPoBoy
quote:
How does Mississippi shape storms?
Are you talking about the state or river?
If it is the state then I will send you to the principal’s office for being a dumbass.
If it’s the river, the river is shaping the landmass.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:41 am to slackster
quote:
So many storms recurve in a way that is very similar to the shape of the coast from Florida to NC. This may be a chicken and egg question though - is the coast shaped that way due to storms or do storms recurve that way due to the land?
quote:
So many storms recurve in a way that is very similar to the shape of the coast from Florida to NC. This may be a chicken and egg question though - is the coast shaped that way due to storms or do storms recurve that way due to the land?
That’s a negative ghost rider.
The SAB got its shape at or near the last glacial maximum (20-21kya). At that time, sea level was almost 120 meters below what it is now. (Interesting side note, that means paleo-native Americans were looking over marine terraces and down a cliff at least 20 meters to the ocean, not really an estuary in the sense of things now on the east coast). The sediment load from many of the rivers bringing sediment off the Appalachians was constrained by a structural high called the Cape Fear Arch.
That resulted in an extended continental shelf in the SAB. It also means that the classic low country of SC and GA (geological speaking, Cape Romain, SC to Amelia Island, FL) have the highest tides of any area on the east coast. Hence why our sea islands are on average 2-3 miles long between inlets (more breakages in the barriers due to the massive amounts of tidal influx) when compared to the beaches from Myrtle Beach and north, and Jax beach and south.
The 4 capes of Hatteras, Lookout, Fear, and Romain are an incredibly cool area to study sedimentary processes.
Sorry for the late reply, I’m offshore on a research vessel right now and one of our generators blew up. I’ve been arse deep in that thing for an hour
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:45 am to TheGasMan
quote:
I’ve been arse deep in that thing for an hour
so we have Florence being penetrated by Hurricane Hunters and you arse deep in stuff
meteorology is dirty
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:45 am to TheGasMan
quote:
Sorry for the late reply, I’m offshore on a research vessel right now and one of our generators blew up. I’ve been arse deep in that thing for an hour
I appreciate it nonetheless. Based on your reply, I wonder if the area being shaped the way it is helps shape hurricanes instead. In other words, perhaps the Bermuda high exists the way it does because of the way the US east coast is shaped.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:48 am to TheGasMan
You’re my new favorite poster
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:55 am to slackster
12z. GFS going with the stall right off the Outer Banks before Florence moves on a few days later.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 11:59 am to slackster
It looks like it wasn't a good time for me to move to Fayetteville.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 12:05 pm to joshnorris14
12z GFS total accumulated rainfall. 74" of that 75.4" fell in 5 days.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 12:29 pm to slackster
Damn! I was supposed to fly into ATL Saturday morning and go to the Auburn game.
Doesn't look good
Doesn't look good
Posted on 9/9/18 at 12:33 pm to slackster
The onshore totals don't look bad at all.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 12:39 pm to Jim Rockford
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic
Ocean, on Tropical Storm Helene, located just southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the eastern
Atlantic.
1. The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Hurricane Florence, located over the west-central Atlantic
Ocean, on Tropical Storm Helene, located just southwest of the Cabo
Verde Islands, and on Tropical Storm Isaac, located over the eastern
Atlantic.
1. The combination of an upper-level trough and a tropical wave over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea is producing a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms between Cuba and Honduras.
Upper-level winds could become somewhat more conducive for some
development when the system moves into the Gulf of Mexico in a
couple of days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward or
northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.
Posted on 9/9/18 at 12:40 pm to Jim Rockford
drop 3 in the eye... 984 mb
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