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Message
re: FearMongering is back: La sees largest single day increase in cases in 5 months
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:05 pm to LNCHBOX
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:05 pm to LNCHBOX
quote:The earth is round
Can't ever turn it off, can you?
The covid vaccine helps to prevent severe infections and death
Both of those things are 100% fact, with only conspiracy reasons to why either isnt true
1
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:05 pm to ned nederlander
Do you have a link for the 87/70 UK numbers? Not doubting you but haven’t seen that high.
The US numbers are 68/59 right now. Of course that is almost all with Pfizer and Moderna, whereas the UK had a lot of AZ.
Also much of those people were vaxxed in the US before mid-June. The UK has had Delta issues since early May I believe and their vaxxed numbers were certainly lower then due to their policies.
My point is that even if those numbers are accurate, the US death numbers should be in line with the UK, with the possible exception of some very low vaccination areas.
The US numbers are 68/59 right now. Of course that is almost all with Pfizer and Moderna, whereas the UK had a lot of AZ.
Also much of those people were vaxxed in the US before mid-June. The UK has had Delta issues since early May I believe and their vaxxed numbers were certainly lower then due to their policies.
My point is that even if those numbers are accurate, the US death numbers should be in line with the UK, with the possible exception of some very low vaccination areas.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:11 pm to Keys Open Doors
According to Eric Topol, 99 percent of LA County hospitalizations are of unvaxxed people, 98 percent in Arkansas.
94 percent in Louisiana, and I believe I saw a chart that 93 percent in Mississippi were unvaxxed.
Arkansas in particular is pretty far into the Delta stretch but I am curious if those numbers will change.
94 percent in Louisiana, and I believe I saw a chart that 93 percent in Mississippi were unvaxxed.
Arkansas in particular is pretty far into the Delta stretch but I am curious if those numbers will change.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:13 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
My point is that even if those numbers are accurate, the US death numbers should be in line with the UK, with the possible exception of some very low vaccination areas.
Natural infection immunity needs to be considered.
Great example I read.
South Dakota 1 dose vaccinated rate is about 50%
Maine is about 66%.
However, if we consider natural infection, South Dakota is likely about 70% immunity, while Maine with natural infection is lower.
I agree it is likely when vaccination rates are very low, natural immunity alone won't be enough.
This post was edited on 7/15/21 at 4:15 pm
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:14 pm to Keys Open Doors
BBC News Link
The attached link includes graphs about midway down that show the percent of the adult population partially and fully vaccinated by nation (England, Wales, Scotland, NI)
The UK NHS has raw data on vaccination but it’s a little more difficult to pull up on mobile.
I hope that is correct. The UK case surge and complete absence of a spike in deaths so far is really interesting and hopefully what plays out in the US.
The attached link includes graphs about midway down that show the percent of the adult population partially and fully vaccinated by nation (England, Wales, Scotland, NI)
The UK NHS has raw data on vaccination but it’s a little more difficult to pull up on mobile.
I hope that is correct. The UK case surge and complete absence of a spike in deaths so far is really interesting and hopefully what plays out in the US.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:15 pm to lsupride87
quote:
Both of those things are 100% fact
One of them is. The other is likely as well, but not there yet.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:16 pm to Fun Bunch
quote:JBE voting, too scared to post data yet still argues with me, fun bunch acting high and mighty
Why are you bothering?
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:19 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
That is definitely valid for the original covid and for the UK variant. Still holds true but to a lesser extent when it comes to Delta from what I can understand, but the higher covid cases from the past 16 months or so should give some cushion.
Also we did a great job with over 65s in this country as 80 percent are fully vaxxed.
Scott Gottlieb, along with Youyang Gu, is one of those guys who has been right a lot on Covid and he was throwing out some numbers for the Delta peak which would be in late September, early October and he thought it would be about triple what it is now and about a quarter a to a third as bad as the winter peak.
Also we did a great job with over 65s in this country as 80 percent are fully vaxxed.
Scott Gottlieb, along with Youyang Gu, is one of those guys who has been right a lot on Covid and he was throwing out some numbers for the Delta peak which would be in late September, early October and he thought it would be about triple what it is now and about a quarter a to a third as bad as the winter peak.
This post was edited on 7/15/21 at 4:21 pm
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:21 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:And deaths and hospitalizations will be a magnitude lower than that because the cases will be made up of younger people this time around due to the elders being vaxxed
Scott Gottlieb, along with Youyang Gu, is one of those guys who has been rogue a lot on Covid and he was throwing out some numbers for the Delta peak which would be in late September, early October and he thought it would be about triple what it is now and about a quarter a to a third as bad as the winter peak.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:25 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
I agree. I actually think natural immunity must be pretty effective against Delta primarily because we aren’t seeing a lot of stories from the UK about people getting infected twice. On the other hand just based on their vaccination rates we may not be seeing those stories because adults who were infected in the UK are getting vaccinated as well.
One thing I think we all know if we are being honest is the vaccination rate isn’t going to materially move in the US in the next 2 months, the Delta variant is going drive a spike in cases, and 98%+ of covid deaths in the US over the next 3 months will be unvaccinated people.
One thing I think we all know if we are being honest is the vaccination rate isn’t going to materially move in the US in the next 2 months, the Delta variant is going drive a spike in cases, and 98%+ of covid deaths in the US over the next 3 months will be unvaccinated people.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:26 pm to Keys Open Doors
Everything I've read from people I consider credible (my bias here), states vaccinated or naturally acquired immunity should largely be enough to keep people out of the hospital or from death for all variants up to this point, including Delta.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:27 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
I feel like I have seen this thread before.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:28 pm to ned nederlander
quote:
One thing I think we all know if we are being honest is the vaccination rate isn’t going to materially move in the US in the next 2 months, the Delta variant is going drive a spike in cases, and 98%+ of covid deaths in the US over the next 3 months will be unvaccinated people.
I agree that people that abstained from vaccination and don't have natural immunity are in the path. Some will die.
We should not shut down anything because of these people. There's simply not enough of them to challenge our health care system and we shouldn't baby them by shutting down everyone else's life again.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:29 pm to TDTOM
I think what we are about to see is a country where vaccinated people are 100% free, and unvaxxed are back to summer 2020 level restrictions
Its going to be interesting to watch it unfold
Its going to be interesting to watch it unfold
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:30 pm to TDTOM
quote:
I feel like I have seen this thread before
Probably. Vaccination and natural immunity works. But apparently this needs repeating.Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:37 pm to lsupride87
With the current system, I don’t see how those restrictions can be enforced in a two tier system (vaxxed and unvaxxed) because almost everything is on the honor system.
Now what you’re saying could absolutely happen if state governments start doing what Macron just did in France, which led to a lot of people signing up for vaccines the very next day.
Now what you’re saying could absolutely happen if state governments start doing what Macron just did in France, which led to a lot of people signing up for vaccines the very next day.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:47 pm to Teddy Ruxpin
quote:
We should not shut down anything because of these people.
I agree with this. At a certain point the game is set. I think the outcome of it is tragic.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:52 pm to Keys Open Doors
quote:
Now what you’re saying could absolutely happen if state governments start doing what Macron just did in France, which led to a lot of people signing up for vaccines the very next day.
What did they do in France?
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:54 pm to tiger91
quote:
Macron announced that from 21 July, anyone visiting a theatre, cinema, sports venue or festival with an audience of more than 50 people would need a health pass proving they were either fully vaccinated, had tested negative or were immune.
The same requirement will be extended to bars, cafes, restaurants, shopping centres (though not supermarkets), hospitals, long-distance trains, coaches and planes from 1 August, he said – including for children aged between 12 and 17 from 1 September.
Posted on 7/15/21 at 4:54 pm to tiger91
quote:What is coming here in similar fashion, albeit not quite as tough I would imagine
What did they do in France?
new #COVID plan for France:
*Mandatory vaccination of health care workers.
*No more free PCR tests. (Get vaccinated instead.)
*Proof of vaccination required for restaurants, cinemas, etc., starting in August.
*Message is clear: Get vaxxed.
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