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re: Don’t look at tropical tidbits

Posted on 9/16/24 at 6:05 pm to
Posted by BZ504
Texas
Member since Oct 2005
11607 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 6:05 pm to
What did it look like 2-3 weeks ago?
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
3763 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 6:45 pm to
A storm like that would take up 3/4 of the gulf lol. Another 18z classic hour GFS run like the other day
Posted by tigerbutt
Deep South
Member since Jun 2006
25495 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 6:49 pm to
quote:

tidbits still not giving up. huge storm in gulf at end of next week


It’s happening.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
14709 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 6:57 pm to
it's almost like the GFS is considering the climatological peak of hurricane season or something
Posted by BRgetthenet
Member since Oct 2011
118106 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:01 pm to
Sounds like you have good Intel.

Can you point us in the direction of where it makes landfall using our updated 15mi margin of error of its exact location and the accompanying early/late four hour window to arrive?.



Thanks for everything, t butt. You've been a lot of help.
Posted by Beshb24
Member since Sep 2024
9 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:07 pm to
Let's gooooooo!! Teachers didn't get enough time off from the first one.
Posted by Mr Breeze
The Lunatic Fringe
Member since Dec 2010
6523 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:07 pm to
Can you DM Levi and confirm this storm forecast 2 weeks out is valid? I can save quite a bit booking my flight out tonight.

Thanks, appreciate you.
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66915 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:50 pm to
quote:

tidbits still not giving up. huge storm in gulf at end of next week

We're coming into a pretty favorable period for the Western Caribbean, so development would be pretty likely with anything that tries.

What matters most is the synoptic pattern over the US/North America, ridging and throughs. Nothing has a good handle on any of it right now, even the EuroAI is back and forth.
Posted by LSUDAN1
Member since Oct 2010
10312 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:51 pm to
So is Louisiana done for?
Posted by LegendInMyMind
Member since Apr 2019
66915 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 7:58 pm to
quote:

So is Louisiana done for?

Yes, but that doesn't really have much to do with this tropical system.
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
3763 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 8:13 pm to
Yep the last 2 days of runs the Euro AI has been from Florida to buried in the BOC.
Posted by RBTiger
Baton Rouge
Member since Jun 2011
8588 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 8:55 pm to
The long range model for what would later become Francine was not that far off.
....Had it barrelling toward Brownsville TX ; putting on the brakes ; making a hard right toward LC.

Hopefully this is just a fart in the wind or stays a fish storm...
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
3763 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 9:12 pm to
Yeah I know it’s a small sample size but the Euro AI has been very successful this season
Posted by Mr Roboto
Seattle, WA
Member since Jan 2023
4797 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 9:40 pm to
Heard the rest of September will be pretty active. Won’t shock me to see another hurricane or two landfall along the gulf coast.
Posted by CE Tiger
Metairie
Member since Jan 2008
41788 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 9:42 pm to
Why do I just see a storm annihilating the fl panhandle what’s the model showing the la storm?
Posted by SWLA92
SWLA
Member since Feb 2015
3763 posts
Posted on 9/16/24 at 9:54 pm to
There’s no models today that show a LA landfall
Posted by TDsngumbo
Member since Oct 2011
45713 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 8:49 am to
I’ll pretend I’m still not looking at tropical tidbits this morning. I’ll also pretend that most models don’t see something developing.

I will, however, not pretend that they have no clue whether it’ll go through Florida and out into the Atlantic or into the northern Gulf coast because that’s apparent. Yall don’t get your panties all in a wad because this is over a week out and the models have no clue what this hypothetical hurricane will do.
Posted by friendlyobservation
Member since Mar 2024
1820 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 10:19 am to
Should we make a thread on this? If a bunch of computer models are picking it up doesn't that mean it's likely going to happen somewhere?
Posted by tunechi
Member since Jun 2009
10412 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 10:47 am to
Posted by oleheat
Sportsman's Paradise
Member since Mar 2007
14192 posts
Posted on 9/17/24 at 10:58 am to
Let's Geaux Cold Fronts!

Shove that garbage out into the Atlantic
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