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Message
re: COVID death count is inflated: change my mind
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:09 pm to Korkstand
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:09 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Then you will have to explain how total US deaths from weeks 13-20 of this year is 530,833 while weeks 13-20 of last year total deaths were only 437,907. A difference of 92,926. Covid deaths as of week ended May 16 (week 20) were 90,324.
Easy. NYC falsely claimed over 3500 covid deaths without any tests. This was publicly admitted to. This was one incident. Imagine how many didn't get reported?
Coroners have also admitting being directed to classify all deaths as covid.
There are reports after reports of families getting falsely labeled death certificates.
The CDC guidelines even direct in black and white to classify deaths as covid even if they are not.
Every attempt is being made to inflate the numbers.
Given the admission of all this publicly, the onus is on you to try and provide evidence the numbers are legit. Which you can't because states have already admitted their data is flawed and need to go back out and separate out deaths related to covid and those not who just had covid at death. Even then the rules for classifying as related to are flimsy as hell.
This post was edited on 6/17/20 at 6:11 pm
1
Posted on 6/17/20 at 6:52 pm to notsince98
quote:I'm not talking about deaths labeled covid. I'm talking about all-cause deaths in order to eliminate all that noise.
Easy. NYC falsely claimed over 3500 covid deaths without any tests. This was publicly admitted to. This was one incident. Imagine how many didn't get reported?
Coroners have also admitting being directed to classify all deaths as covid.
There are reports after reports of families getting falsely labeled death certificates.
The CDC guidelines even direct in black and white to classify deaths as covid even if they are not.
Every attempt is being made to inflate the numbers.
quote:Easy. Here is a link to a CSV file which contains TOTAL weekly deaths in the United States. It has pneumonia and flu broken out individually, but those numbers are included in the column labeled "all deaths". Here are the total deaths for the 8 week period containing weeks 13-20 of the given calendar year (roughly the months of late March to early May).
the onus is on you to try and provide evidence the numbers are legit. Which you can't because states have already admitted their data is flawed and need to go back out and separate out deaths related to covid and those not who just had covid at death. Even then the rules for classifying as related to are flimsy as hell.
2014 - 399,464
2015 - 413,281
2016 - 418,351
2017 - 429,211
2018 - 429,669
2019 - 437,923
2020 - 530,833
One of these things is not like the others. About 90k unlike the others.
This post was edited on 6/17/20 at 6:55 pm
Posted on 6/17/20 at 7:43 pm to Korkstand
quote:
2014 - 399,464
2015 - 413,281
2016 - 418,351
2017 - 429,211
2018 - 429,669
2019 - 437,923
2020 - 530,833
One of these things is not like the others. About 90k unlike the others.
Not saying your wrong but it’s more of a semantics issue. Many people died of pre existing conditions that were exacerbated by covid. Hospitals claimed covid for funding. I’m not a lawyer but I’d imagine that position is pretty defensible. If not for the funding, the numbers would be lower is all I’m saying.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 7:48 pm to Tigers13
quote:
Hospitals claimed covid for funding. I’m not a lawyer but I’d imagine that position is pretty defensible. If not for the funding, the numbers would be lower is all I’m saying.
once again, why would hospitals purposely inflate the numbers that are the reason why they were also hemorrhaging money?
why would they lie about COVID deaths to get pennies on the dollar back? do y'all realize how much money the hospitals were losing during the shut downs? why would they purposely lie to keep those shut downs longer? none of it makes sense
if anything, hospitals would lie the other way about COVID deaths so the governments would ease restrictions
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:06 pm to Salmon
I’m sure some hospitals were losing money but not all were. Private clinics were bleeding badly and so were specialists that worked at hospitals but many ER hospitals were doing business as normal. Also, the ones that are bleeding are going to grab whatever money they can. One hospital under reporting isn’t going to make a difference. Your view is very idealistic.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:24 pm to Tigers13
quote:Well you know, ultimately nobody dies of anything other than a lack of oxygen to the brain.
Not saying your wrong but it’s more of a semantics issue. Many people died of pre existing conditions that were exacerbated by covid.
Heart attack -> no bloodflow -> no oxygen to brain -> death
Cancer -> various organs eventually shut down (or whatever) -> brain is eventually deprived of oxygen -> death
Pneumonia -> lung function restricted -> brain is deprived of oxygen -> death
Gunshot wound -> lack of bloodflow -> brain is deprived of oxygen -> death
So is it semantics or pedantism?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:26 pm to Korkstand
quote:
If not for the funding, the numbers would be lower is all I’m saying.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 8:45 pm to Korkstand
I’ll give you a hypothetical to further my point. Say you have a patient who has pancreatic cancer with a 3 month window. That patient picks up influenza and dies in 2.5 months. How does the doctor code the death?
Same patient, same circumstances except for the patient picks up Covid. How does the doctor code the death?
It’s an extreme example but it illustrates the grey that’s being worked in. I’m certainly not taking a shot at doctors but there‘re certainly ones who are driven by money, especially when the lifestyle they are use to is being threatened.
Same patient, same circumstances except for the patient picks up Covid. How does the doctor code the death?
It’s an extreme example but it illustrates the grey that’s being worked in. I’m certainly not taking a shot at doctors but there‘re certainly ones who are driven by money, especially when the lifestyle they are use to is being threatened.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:08 pm to Tigers13
quote:And what I'm saying is if the covid numbers were lower, then the numbers for other causes of death would have to be higher to take up the slack. And it's really, really hard to explain why so many people were dying of other causes unexpectedly.
If not for the funding, the numbers would be lower is all I’m saying.
People like to say "where are all the heart attacks?! Huh??" Well, here they are. Now what?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:15 pm to Tigers13
quote:I don't know, and I don't care. The fact is we have 90k deaths more than would be typical for those 8 weeks that I mentioned, and it is impossible to account for all of those excess deaths without covid. These are counts of death certificates... one body, one certificate, increment the count by one. These numbers have absolutely nothing to do with covid, or how doctors are coding deaths, or anything like that. It's strictly a count of dead people per week, which has been done for many, many years.
I’ll give you a hypothetical to further my point. Say you have a patient who has pancreatic cancer with a 3 month window. That patient picks up influenza and dies in 2.5 months. How does the doctor code the death?
Same patient, same circumstances except for the patient picks up Covid. How does the doctor code the death?
So it's either people were having heart attacks at TWICE the usual rate (statistically impossible), people were dying of cancer at TWICE the usual rate (impossible), people were dying of strokes at 5X the usual rate (impossible), people were dying of all typical causes at 20% higher rates across the entire spectrum of causes (or some combination that equates to that) (impossible), or, you know, the covid death counts are pretty fricking accurate.
Believe what you want.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 9:22 pm to Korkstand
TBH, I’m not exactly sure of the point you’re trying to make but I’m going to take a shot. What I’m saying is a lot of people who died of Covid had pre existing conditions that would have killed them in the next 2 years. So if that’s true AND if things were to return to normal, then we would see a decreased death rate over the next two years since Covid expedited so many deaths. If not for government funding, SOME of those deaths would have been coded as the pre existing condition and not Covid. But since it was incentivized, the numbers are higher than what they would be otherwise.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:01 pm to Tigers13
If someone died earlier than they would have due to COVID, why would that not be considered a COVID death?
If I have terminal cancer and have 3 months to live and then die in a car wreck, I died of a car wreck, not terminal cancer.
If I have terminal cancer and have 3 months to live and then die in a car wreck, I died of a car wreck, not terminal cancer.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:17 pm to Salmon
quote:
If someone died earlier than they would have due to COVID, why would that not be considered a COVID death?
I’m not debating that. I’m saying if hospitals weren’t incentivized, the numbers would be lower.
quote:
If I have terminal cancer and have 3 months to live and then die in a car wreck, I died of a car wreck, not terminal cancer.
This really doesn’t deserve a response but anyway. If you died in a car wreck, you’d be pronounced dead at the scene and the coroner would sign your death certificate. If you went to a hospital in a coma, contracted Covid while in the coma, and then died, I would bet money your death certificate would say Covid as cause of death.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:19 pm to Salmon
quote:
If someone died earlier than they would have due to COVID, why would that not be considered a COVID death?
If I have terminal cancer and have 3 months to live and then die in a car wreck, I died of a car wreck, not terminal cancer.
People on this site are so fricking dumb.
I will enjoy the spin argument against this though.
This post was edited on 6/17/20 at 10:20 pm
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:23 pm to Tigers13
quote:
I’m not debating that. I’m saying if hospitals weren’t incentivized, the numbers would be lower.
By what logic? Why would they ever code the death as anything else?
quote:
If you went to a hospital in a coma, contracted Covid while in the coma, and then died, I would bet money your death certificate would say Covid as cause of death.
Yeah. If I wasn’t dead from the car wreck, and then COVID caused me to die, why wouldn’t I be considered a COVID death?
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:23 pm to Korkstand
quote:
Here are the total deaths for the 8 week period containing weeks 13-20 of the given calendar year (roughly the months of late March to early May). 2014 - 399,464 2015 - 413,281 2016 - 418,351 2017 - 429,211 2018 - 429,669 2019 - 437,923 2020 - 530,833
Hold the fricking phone
You left out the flu season for each year. Include each years flu season and you will see the last 2 are dramatically lower. This could easily be make up deaths from 2 mild flu seasons.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:24 pm to Armytiger87
quote:
COVID death count is inflated
Well, if that article from earlier about Nursing Home numbers is true, I'd say you're correct.
Posted on 6/17/20 at 10:50 pm to Salmon
quote:
I’ll give you a hypothetical to further my point. Say you have a patient who has pancreatic cancer with a 3 month window. That patient picks up influenza and dies in 2.5 months. How does the doctor code the death? Same patient, same circumstances except for the patient picks up Covid. How does the doctor code the death?
I’m not sure how else to explain it. Same circumstances, same result, different virus, different cause of death. Why? $$$ provided for one virus and not the other.
When looking at statistical data, you have to have a control. You can’t have a fair comparison if there’re outside factors that are influencing the data.
Posted on 6/18/20 at 12:28 am to WaWaWeeWa
quote:
Hold the fricking phone
quote:Yeah, covid ramped up right after flu season. What's the point? The severity of a flu season is measured essentially the same way I'm measuring the severity of that covid "season". Excess deaths over expected.
You left out the flu season for each year.
quote:Well that's entirely possible. So tell me, if these last two flu seasons had been worse, would these covid deaths have worked their way into those past flu season figures and lowered the covid deaths we've seen? Highly likely, I'd say. So what is the argument against including them in covid figures? Are we supposed to take some of the deaths and say "well, this guy probably should have died last year if that flu was worth a shite, so let's mark him down for last year's flu instead of this year's covid"?
Include each years flu season and you will see the last 2 are dramatically lower. This could easily be make up deaths from 2 mild flu seasons.
This post was edited on 6/18/20 at 12:45 am
Posted on 6/18/20 at 12:47 am to Tigers13
quote:Clearly, since you are still fighting it.
TBH, I’m not exactly sure of the point you’re trying to make
quote:Probably, and this is true of the flu every year, as well. Actually there are a shitload of deaths every year that result from a stack of pre-existing conditions, so I'm not sure of your point.
What I’m saying is a lot of people who died of Covid had pre existing conditions that would have killed them in the next 2 years.
quote:Completely possible, if not likely.
So if that’s true AND if things were to return to normal, then we would see a decreased death rate over the next two years since Covid expedited so many deaths.
quote:Possible, but that would have been an error, I'd say. During flu season, nobody really gives a shite, and very few death certs actually mention the flu. For example, the 2017-18 flu season was pretty bad with an estimated 61k deaths, but only about 15k of those were actually recorded on death certificates as flu. The rest were estimated based on excess deaths as I've done here for covid, in combination with other methods.
If not for government funding, SOME of those deaths would have been coded as the pre existing condition and not Covid.
We can't afford to be that lackadaisical with novel viruses. We have to be as accurate as we possibly can from the start in order to know how to proceed. You can argue that what we did was far out of proportion to the actual threat, and I would agree, but it's extremely difficult at this point to argue that the covid death count is highly inaccurate. It seems to be pretty fricking close judging from the excess deaths.
quote:This is a really bizarre argument at this point. What do the "incentives" have to do with producing accurate death records? Would you prefer that we undercount covid deaths at first, and then add them back in years from now when we estimate like we do with flu?
But since it was incentivized, the numbers are higher than what they would be otherwise.
This post was edited on 6/18/20 at 12:49 am
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