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Can this help some understand the measures?

Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:32 pm
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
39568 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:32 pm
A bit high-handed but maybe can help explain. But I’m not holding my breath.

quote:


Precautionary decisions do not scale. Collective safety may require excessive individual risk avoidance, even if it con?icts with an individual’s own interests and bene?ts. It may require an individual to worry about risks that are comparatively insigni?cant.

Assume a risk of a multiplicative viral epidemic, still in its early stages. The risk for an individual to catch the virus is very low, lower than other ailments. It is therefore "irrational" to panic (react immediately and as a priority). But if she or he does not panic and act in an ultra-conservative manner, they will contribute to the spread of the virus and it will become a severe source of systemic harm

This happens when the systemic risk is small to the individual but common to all, while an individual’s other idiosyncratic risks dominate her or his own life. The risk of car accident may be greater for an individual, but smaller for society.

Under such conditions it becomes sel?sh, even psychopathic, to act according to what is called "rational" behavior – to make one’s own immediate rankings of risk con?ict with those of society, even generate risks for society. This is similar to other tragedies of the common, except that there is life and death.

In addition, there is a tradeoff short-term vs. long term for idiosyncratic risk. Over the long run, there is convergence between idiosyncratic and systemic:
your risk rises if all others are infected and the risks of survival from other diseases drop.

For instance, during a pandemic that mostly spares young, healthy individuals, an independent emer-
gency that would typically be routine may become untreatable because of lack of resources. Further, in conditions of severe societal breakdown, many
additional risks will emerge for all agents that can’t be reduced to the initial short term risk of infection
to the individual


More:
LINK

Be safe people.
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
30751 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:34 pm to
Downvoted b/c they said “she or he” instead of “he or she”.
Stopped reading after that.
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:36 pm
Posted by LSUJML
Central
Member since May 2008
56852 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:36 pm to
I can’t be the only person tired of reading long paragraphs of big words that don’t mean shite in reality
This post was edited on 3/19/20 at 9:36 pm
Posted by Havoc
Member since Nov 2015
39568 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:36 pm to
This board really has become The Coronavirus Rant.
Posted by red sox fan 13
Valley Park
Member since Aug 2018
19239 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:37 pm to
Posted by TeddyPadillac
Member since Dec 2010
30751 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:39 pm to
The little bit of the blurb you quoted I did read bored me b/c it felt like it wasn’t going anywhere and was just talking, so I quit reading.
Posted by Bunk Moreland
Member since Dec 2010
70164 posts
Posted on 3/19/20 at 9:41 pm to
Fine, but if you shut down businesses for six weeks or however many months the medical experts say we need, it's going to be absolute chaos for other reasons.
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