re: Bring Us Your Favorite 2021 and Beyond Memes

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I didn’t know what a Pop Tart was in the 80’s.

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I’m so sorry your childhood sucked.

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Based on the models that you've built, how is this invasion going along? Outcome?

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It’s hard to sort truth from propaganda. But here’s my thoughts.

1. The invasion has not gone as planned. The Russian army looks poorly led, poorly motivated, and poorly equipped. This comes as no surprise to those of us who’ve spent any appreciable time in study of the Russian military, both today and historically.

2. Ukraine still cannot win without massive external intervention, be it in the form of military assistance or by joining Ukraine in direct combat against Russia. The former is happening, the later is, at this time, out of the question. And while some foreign military aid is coming, it’s unclear if it will be enough to allow Ukraine to continue active resistance. My educated guess is that in the coming days the Ukrainian forces will be worn down to the point of military collapse.

3. There is real danger of this whole thing spiraling out of control, much as the crisis during the Summer of 1914 did. Even if the fighting in Ukraine comes to a formal end in the coming days, the international community, specifically the EU and NATO, will not accept the Russian occupation of Ukraine, nor will they accept a puppet government subservient to Moscow being installed. The economic pressure being applied to Russia will not lessen. And the longer this goes on, the more Russia will both become destabilized and feel increasingly cornered. This situation raises the possibility of Military conflict between Russia and NATO, up to and including a nuclear exchange. This possibility is exasperated by the fact the US is rudderless from a leadership standpoint and Putin appears increasingly unstable himself.

The dark side of DIY