re: Big Cold Blast Coming - Round 2

Massive upper ridge over West Coast lends to cold northerly flow over southern plains with hint of subtropical jet over south Texas and gulf coast near the 24/26th. Impulses in jet would imply cloudy/wet conditions near 24/26th

The 6z Euro output is absolutely terrifying for Baton Rouge. An inch of rain on the 24th with temps hovering barely above freezing, and you can usually bet on the temps coming down as models don't usually do well with the cold. Then on the 26th, again another inch+ of rain with temps in the 30s. Right now it is all rain but a slight deviation in temps and you have mayhem. This place would be shut down for days. The cold is not nearly deep enough for snow. Could you imagine if it was, we would be talking a foot of snow over those two days.

I am becoming more and more grateful to be in Florida over Christmas.

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The cold is not nearly deep enough for snow. Could you imagine if it was, we would be talking a foot of snow over those two days.

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Actually, much, MUCH more snow than a foot. If we were to get 2+ inches of rain, the snow:rain ratio is more like 10:1, meaning 2+ inches of rain would equate to roughly 20+ inches of snow.

If Baton Rouge were to get 2 feet of snowfall in one event, I'm pretty sure my pants would be one giant jizzball.

I usually go with 5:1 ratios down here because the snow is usually so wet and heavy. But yes, with 10:1 ratios it would be 2 feet.

If it snows that much while I am out of state, I will never ever forgive myself. lol I don't want to be here for an ice storm or horrible cold but I don't ever want to miss snow!

All this being said, until the Euro comes on board then I am not even buying this extreme cold. The GFS has been insanely consistent and the Ensembles are in unusually good agreement for so far out. The Euro is just now getting into the time range where it can see this so it will be interesting to see if it picks up on anything. The NAM, which nailed our snow storm, is a very short model run so we can't use that until much closer to the event.

Brought to you by Ice Cold Dr. pepper here and Ice Cold Budddd !

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Latest GFS run shows a big ice storm on Dec 22-23 for Louisiana

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Supposed to be flying home on the 23rd

should make Christmas travel interesting.


12/22: Houston > Baton Rouge
12/24: Baton Rouge > Bossier City
12/28: Bossier City > Hattiesburg, MS
1/1: Hattiesburg > Houston

I'm not convinced the cold air will be deep enough to support snow. If we get anything out of this, it will be the god awful freezing rain. That means it's time to start hurricane preps, guys. Except don't bother with the window unit AC's and instead gather firewood this time. Gonna be a whole lot of trees coming down causing power outages for a few days if we get more than a quarter inch of ice, which if the models are close to being correct, that's quite possible.

Latest run looks a lot different. Not nearly the ice storm from previous runs. And it's still just really really early.