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1
Posted on 12/19/17 at 6:58 am to OldSouth
Posted on 12/19/17 at 7:08 am to Dire Wolf
All afternoon and yesterday evening, my weaher app said a high of 38/low of 21 with snow in BHam on Christmas Day. 31/18 on the 26th.
Now it says sunny, high of 48/low of 29.
I’m not trusting any forecast until this weekend.
Now it says sunny, high of 48/low of 29.
I’m not trusting any forecast until this weekend.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 7:09 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 7:17 am to bayoubengals88
GFS is trollin the frick outta y'all. 
Posted on 12/19/17 at 7:24 am to Havoc
Yes the GFS has gone back to flip flopping again. It started to get consistent for a while there but now nobody knows what’s going to happen.
Model watching at its finest
Model watching at its finest
Posted on 12/19/17 at 7:26 am to TDsngumbo
I am coming back on the 23rd from Germany wanting to escape some snow... Great.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 7:52 am to TDsngumbo
so are we def. getting the temps of high in the 20s and low in the teens for 48-72 hours?
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:04 am to LSUvegasbombed
Looking into booking a cabin in Arkansas from 28-31st
Is traveling from Lafayette to Arkansas going to be a problem on the 28th?
I'm guessing this is too far out to ask but I need to book the cabin today
Is traveling from Lafayette to Arkansas going to be a problem on the 28th?
I'm guessing this is too far out to ask but I need to book the cabin today
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:05 am to LSUvegasbombed
quote:
so are we def. getting the temps of high in the 20s and low in the teens for 48-72 hours?
I can't tell you what we will definitely get today, much less speak in definitive terms for next week.
As of this morning, the models flip flopped to a cold - not bitter cold - and dry couple days after Christmas. The next few days will really give us an idea of what to expect.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:10 am to TDsngumbo
In the FWIW department, the Canadian (which nailed our last snow and cold weather event) calls for 24 degrees at noon on December 28th with sleet. I hate to even post this graphic and mention it though because it's 9 days away and as the GFS is proving, so much can change.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:29 am to TDsngumbo
quote:Yeah, we've had a lot of this. It's been a fun December.
In the FWIW department, the Canadian (which nailed our last snow and cold weather event) calls for 24 degrees at noon on December 28th with sleet. I hate to even post this graphic and mention it though because it's 9 days away and as the GFS is proving, so much can change.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:35 am to StringedInstruments
quote:
I’m not trusting any forecast until this weekend.
Dang. I wouldn't trust a weather forecast like these any more than a handful of hours out. Any weather guy can give you any July day forecast right now, but could not give you this week's forecast.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:39 am to OldSouth
Ive felt colder weather walking through the quad
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:48 am to bayoubengals88
I wouldn't buy in to any solution until the NWS forecast offices start leaning in a particular direction.
Here's this morning's discussion from NWS Houston.
And NWS New Orleans:
Here's this morning's discussion from NWS Houston.
quote:
Extended models still fairly out of sorts with the timing of the next cold front. ECMWF is continuing to lag the GFS by quite a bit. Given that this will be a very cold Canadian airmass, will opt to keep with the faster timing already in the grids
And NWS New Orleans:
quote:
As the previous forecaster alluded to the confidence in the forecast beyond Thursday leaves a bit to be desired. Guidance is in agreement in another front moving through the forecast area
this weekend. Guidance still points to a cold air plunge into the center of the country this weekend. The question is
always how far south will that cold air make it with precipitation ongoing. The temperature guidance through the weekend is tough as well with differences in the guidance continuing but not near as much as previous runs. I can tell you that another chance of showers and thunderstorms will be in the forecast for late Friday night through Saturday. There could also be a chance for a few strong storms during that time as well. Have not made any major changes to the forecast as there are still a few conditional forecast issues that need to be addressed in the coming forecast packages. Beyond this system it gets cold behind it for the beginning of next week.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 8:56 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:56 am to LSUJuice
No one knows ANYTHING beyond five days except that temps will be colder than the 62/42 average for this time of year. Perhaps significantly colder 
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:02 am to bayoubengals88
I just requested sticky because this is easily the most intriguing thread on the OT. I can't stop refreshing to see updates. I am hoping for super cold temps.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:37 am to TDsngumbo
GFS rolling out now. I'll post graphics and/or updates as we get into the interesting time frame of Christmas and beyond.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:01 am to TDsngumbo
quote:
GFS rolling out now. I'll post graphics and/or updates as we get into the interesting time frame of Christmas and beyond.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:04 am to rt3
It's slow. They're doing six hours at a time. on hour 114 now or 6 am on 12/24
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:08 am to bayoubengals88
quote:NOPE. Moisture is gone.
I'm on pins and needles. hour 138 could be interesting! (12 am Christmas morning)
32 degrees at 6 am Christmas morn
43 degrees at noon on Christmas Day
38 degrees at 6 pm Christmas Day
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 10:14 am
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