re: 2014 Hurricane Season Long Thread

is that good or bad?

ETA: not liking those tracks.

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is that good or bad?

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personally I don't see how it hurts it, but I'm more interested in the path it takes to get to the gulf and how it interacts with land.

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burn that bastard at the stake

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aaronb023

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Punk arse shouldnt be going to the beach, should be going to Houston

im going to Fort Morgan next Wednesday to Monday

Oh well

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Tradition brah..I've been at the beach for lsu's season opener the last 8 years...haven't lost a game yet

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Then we all hope you have a fabulous time

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who was that mfer last week that said hurricane season has been very quiet?
burn that bastard at the stake

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My first thoughts as well.

Main points here...

This thing, if it would come here, is 8-10 days away. That is WAY too far to have any type of certainty on where it would go.

When it comes to models, you have to look at consistency between the different models, as well as consecutive runs of each model, and at the moment we don't have any real consistency aside from the fact that if it were to make it in the gulf it has a real good chance of forming into something between a depression and a moderate hurricane.

The reason at this moment everyone should be prepared is that we are in the typically busy part of hurricane season, but you should be prepared this time of year every year.

Just saying this is nothing to freak out about or change plans for yet and anyone who says with anything greater than 0% certainty that they know where it's going is BSing you.

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It appears that 96L and the wave behind it will merge.

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There are two tropical waves moving to the north of the monsoon trough. One is entering the islands and the 2nd is the area of your red line but more towards the NW and not extending down into the trough. The best convection this morning is associated with the trough and the waves are embedded in dry stable air to the north. Notice the cloud pattern in the blue circle. As that second wave moves through it could act to kind of "fold" the trough.





It is a slow sloppy process that the models will struggle with. It will take a while for anything to consolidate and if that doesn't happen before the islands then 96L will probably stay disorganized and south. John Hope Rule anyone?

A couple of notes about the overnight model runs. Geaux covered most of it here.

I'll add:

- the Euro EPS has kind of two "clusters" in the western track camp. One stays way south into Mexico and the other is more towards Louisiana.

- the Euro/GFS trended towards a trough across the upper plains by Day 7 and that would tend to pull a stronger system north into the Gulf Coast (if a system was in the Gulf by Day 7)

- the Euro/GFS have a monster EPAC storm by Day 7 and that would not favor a strong system in the Gulf. This is one of the big things to watch down the road.

Again, no system has formed so this is all just pissing in the wind. Conditions appear to be favorable for something to form but the process will probably be slow. The models will continue to thrash around until there is a consolidated LLC.