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re: 132k active Covid Cases Nationwide

Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:46 pm to
Posted by thadcastle
Member since Dec 2019
2843 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:46 pm to
Had a coworker get the rona and they sent him to hospital. Last I heard he didn’t even feel that bad but they made him go. I think it’s odd they recommended he go to the hospital when he didn’t feel too bad. Maybe they are trying to pump up the numbers.
Posted by DVinBR
Member since Jan 2013
15927 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:47 pm to
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49580 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:47 pm to
quote:

So 132k nationally, assume 2% hospitalized = 2,600


The hospitalization rate is higher than that. There were 1,193 people hospitalized with COVID in Louisiana today.
Posted by StringedInstruments
Member since Oct 2013
21084 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:47 pm to
quote:

We have known these things for months.


I’m not sure we’ve known that for months. Shutting down initially to flatten the curve was smart and it gave us time to prepare for a larger outbreak and learn more about the virus.

The Spanish Flu nailed people aged 25-35. I’m sure a lot of our government’s initial decisions were based on the fear that Covid could do the same.

Now that we’ve flattened the curve and understood who is at risk (old frail already sick people), there’s no need to remain in lockdown mode.

But we have a greater sickness to deal with: political theater.

That’s all we’re dealing with now. Politicians making decisions based on what they believe their voting base will like come November. That’s on both sides BtW.
Posted by SECdragonmaster
Order of the Dragons
Member since Dec 2013
17460 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:50 pm to
COVID 19 is the new Y2K.
Posted by hubreb
Member since Nov 2008
2166 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:54 pm to
quote:


Current hospitalized. And don’t argue with me, argue with the Texas health department dashboard.



Fair...my 2% number may be completely wrong...but the other data isn't...I ran for 14 and 21 days as well...at 21 day recovery method it is 440k active
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9753 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:58 pm to
Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the 10 days you use is the upper length of the guideline to begin to "show symptoms" and not the total recovery time?

A lot of people I've known who had this and recovered took much longer than 10 days to recover after the first day they likely would have tested positive. Some didn't even begin to get sick with it for almost 10 days.


Aren't many people who are having to be hospitalized there for longer than 10 days?


This post was edited on 5/14/20 at 7:01 pm
Posted by Antonio Moss
The South
Member since Mar 2006
49580 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 6:58 pm to
quote:

my 2% number may be completely wrong.


It is completely wrong.

quote:

but the other data isn't


It's also probably completely wrong. Active cases in the US are probably somewhere around 350,000.
Posted by wm72
Brooklyn
Member since Mar 2010
9753 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 7:06 pm to
quote:

21 day recovery method it is 440k active


I would guess that's closer to the accurate count, maybe a bit lower.


I think hospitalization numbers are higher than your 2% based on 10 days because a lot of people getting this seriously enough for the hospital are there for 2-3 weeks.
This post was edited on 5/14/20 at 7:09 pm
Posted by hubreb
Member since Nov 2008
2166 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 7:16 pm to
quote:

I think hospitalization numbers are higher than your 2% based on 10 days because a lot of people getting this seriously enough for the hospital are there for 2-3 weeks.


Agree...the 10 day is from the CDC guidance...in original post...TN and LA use 21 day..I've been running this for weeks using 21 and found the CDC deal today

Only guy I know who had it was on ventilator for 19 days, nearly died... however, when they took him off he was negative for Cov 19..still in horrible shape two weeks after coming off vent, but should survive...guys like that are super small percentage

Posted by notbilly
alter
Member since Sep 2015
7244 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 7:23 pm to
quote:

Correct me if I'm wrong but I thought the 10 days you use is the upper length of the guideline to begin to "show symptoms" and not the total recovery time?

A lot of people I've known who had this and recovered took much longer than 10 days to recover after the first day they likely would have tested positive. Some didn't even begin to get sick with it for almost 10 days.


Aren't many people who are having to be hospitalized there for longer than 10 days?


I'm pretty the CDC guidelines say to stay home for 3 days without symptoms AND at least 10 days from the first symptom.

So if your symptoms are done on day 5, you still need to wait out the 10 days.

If your symptoms are gone on day 9, stay home 3 more days.
Posted by jimmy the leg
Member since Aug 2007
45341 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 8:04 pm to
quote:

The hospitalization rate is higher than that. There were 1,193 people hospitalized with COVID in Louisiana today.


Just out of curiosity, do you have access to St. Tammany data. As of today, the number in West St. Tammany was 9 according to the evening news.
Posted by RealityTiger
Geismar, LA
Member since Jan 2010
20543 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 8:08 pm to
What about those who are asymptomatic? You know, never had any symptoms. That makes up a large majority of those who tested positive.
Posted by hubreb
Member since Nov 2008
2166 posts
Posted on 5/14/20 at 8:42 pm to
quote:

What about those who are asymptomatic? You know, never had any symptoms. That makes up a large majority of those who tested positive.


CDC link in op says 10 days quarantine
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