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Started By
Message
re: The Penalty Controversy at the beginning of the Second Half.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:12 am to shel311
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:12 am to shel311
quote:
How is it a no brainer?
2 yards further downfield, and we have 2 plays to get 3 yards which is better than 3 plays to get 10 yards.
yeah, i wouldn't call either the right or wrong call here. we'd be ecstatic with a 7 yd first down gain every time.
1
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:13 am to baytiger
nm
This post was edited on 12/9/13 at 9:14 am
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:17 am to Chad504boy
I get the decision from a numbers perspective but still disagree with it. 1st and 10 need to average 3.3 yards per play to convert. 2d and 3 in a bit better feild position, you have to average 1.5 yards per play to covert. To be in the same boat assuming you'd taken the penalty, you'd have to have a 7 yard play on the first down, otherwise you'd be behind where you otherwise would have been relative to the chains.
IMO declining the penalty really only makes sense if you intend to take a deep shot (thus treating the second down like a free play) and 3 yards to gain is a little long for that approach. Getting stoned at the line of scrimmage on the run play screwed everything up.
Unconventional decision but not clearly right or wrong. Hindsight makes it look dumb.
IMO declining the penalty really only makes sense if you intend to take a deep shot (thus treating the second down like a free play) and 3 yards to gain is a little long for that approach. Getting stoned at the line of scrimmage on the run play screwed everything up.
Unconventional decision but not clearly right or wrong. Hindsight makes it look dumb.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:18 am to Putty
quote:
I get the decision from a numbers perspective but still disagree with it. 1st and 10 need to average 3.3 yards per play to convert. 2d and 3 in a bit better feild position, you have to average 1.5 yards per play to covert. To be in the same boat assuming you'd taken the penalty, you'd have to have a 7 yard play on the first down, otherwise you'd be behind where you otherwise would have been relative to the chains.
IMO declining the penalty really only makes sense if you intend to take a deep shot (thus treating the second down like a free play) and 3 yards to gain is a little long for that approach. Getting stoned at the line of scrimmage on the run play screwed everything up.
Unconventional decision but not clearly right or wrong. Hindsight makes it look dumb.
Everyone is using plays calls as a reason why it was good or bad. the play calls has nothing to do with the penalty declination. For all we know, it could have been first and 10 and we do a jed dive for a one yard gain.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:19 am to goatmilker
quote:Why?
Take the 1st down and matriculate down the field
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:21 am to Putty
quote:This is one reason.
1st and 10 need to average 3.3 yards per play to convert. 2d and 3 in a bit better feild position, you have to average 1.5 yards per play to covert.
The other being, I'm guessing on the average 1st and 10 play, the Saints get less than 7 yards more than 50% of the time, just a guess.
All the numbers point to this being the right call, even the one I made up.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:23 am to Chad504boy
Dont disagree. But it seems philosophically off to decline the penalty and then run a ho hum run play (regardless of results)
Declining the penalty is aggressive. Don't make an aggressive decision and then follow it up with a run that you hope will get you 3 yds and the first you just declined.
Make the aggressive decision and follow it with an aggressive downfield playcall. Then if you miss that, you have a manageable yds to gain.
Declining the penalty is aggressive. Don't make an aggressive decision and then follow it up with a run that you hope will get you 3 yds and the first you just declined.
Make the aggressive decision and follow it with an aggressive downfield playcall. Then if you miss that, you have a manageable yds to gain.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:23 am to Blind Boy Grunt
Yes. A first down is more important than 2 yards.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:25 am to Putty
quote:
Dont disagree. But it seems philosophically off to decline the penalty and then run a ho hum run play (regardless of results)
was only ho hum cause we didn't get 3 yards.
quote:
Declining the penalty is aggressive.
i say its safer cause you are safely taking a 7yd gain on first down.
quote:
Then if you miss that, you have a manageable yds to gain.
but we still had managable yds to gain on 3rd and missed.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:26 am to Putty
quote:Would it really have been different or more justified if we throw downfield with an incomplete pass?
But it seems philosophically off to decline the penalty and then run a ho hum run play (regardless of results
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:27 am to Sophandros
quote:i'll pose the question I posed here or maybe another thread.
Yes. A first down is more important than 2 yards
If you play a full game and every time you got a "1st down" or gained 10 yards, you had the choice of playing it as 1st and 10 or 2nd and 3, which would you choose?
That's not even throwing in on top of that, every time you gained that 10 yards, if you choose 2nd and 3, you get to advance the ball 2 extra yards.
When put like that, i'm not sure why anyone would choose the 1st and 10, no?
This post was edited on 12/9/13 at 9:33 am
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:32 am to shel311
quote:
Would it really have been different or more justified if we throw downfield with an incomplete pass?
Like I said, it wasn't a "wrong" decision regardless of results. You can't judge the decision in hindsight of the results of the following plays. Even CSP can't see the future. There is an argument that it was the right decision based on the numbers....period.
However, if you take a shot (eve if you miss) it sort of demonstrates the mentality of why you decline the penalty in the first place. The value is in the shot you get to take since you're ahead of the chains. Not in the results.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 9:38 am to Putty
quote:
if you take a shot (eve if you miss) it sort of demonstrates the mentality of why you decline the penalty in the first place.
if you try to run the ball for a quick first down, that also demonstrates the mentality of why you declined the penalty in the first place.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 10:12 am to Chad504boy
Mathematically 2 plays to get 3 yards is better than 3 plays to get 10 yards
That is why he did it. I would have liked to see a deep pass on 2nd and 3 tho, then a run on 3rd down if we didnt complete ot
That is why he did it. I would have liked to see a deep pass on 2nd and 3 tho, then a run on 3rd down if we didnt complete ot
Posted on 12/9/13 at 11:26 am to tigersint
It would be simple to figure out and Saints probably have done some number crunching on it. What is the overall probability throughout the league of getting a first down from starting 1st and 10 vs the probability of getting it from 2nd and 3? My guess would be a much higher probability with a 2nd and 3.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 12:06 pm to KindOfABigDeal
quote:Exactly.
What is the overall probability throughout the league of getting a first down from starting 1st and 10 vs the probability of getting it from 2nd and 3? My guess would be a much higher probability with a 2nd and 3.
Again, going back to my question, I don't think very many people are choosing 1st and 10 as the answer to my question above, so i don't see why you'd choose it in this instance.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:08 pm to baytiger
It seems to me 2nd and 3 is more like a play where the Saints will often take a shot. I have no idea why he chose it over the first down or what the real explanation was, but that was what I was thinking at the time. Like, oh, 2nd and short, we are gonna air it out here, dial up something from the playbook, take a shot down the field. Then they didn't. Oh well. It also might have been declined because he wanted to take the spot of the ball further up field, to get it outside the 20. Inside or around the 20, sometimes bad things happen to Drew's passes, like what happened with the fumble in Seattle or the pick 6 Drew threw against Carolina last year. I really have no idea, these are just guesses.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:10 pm to Blind Boy Grunt
Statisically speaking, you probably have a better chance of getting 3 yards in two plays than 10 in 3, but whatever it didnt really have a bearing on the game so zero fricks given
Posted on 12/9/13 at 1:12 pm to Harry Pitts
We won the game, I don't care.
Posted on 12/9/13 at 3:45 pm to Blind Boy Grunt
Perfect call only because we won. If we lost I would be saying some dirty things about that call
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