re: Official Saints @ Panthers Prediction Thread

The Panthers are 4th in PPG allowed (16.2) and 3rd in total defense, including the 2nd best past defense. They have held their opponents to just 24, 17, 20, 9, 0 and 20 (not counting the blocked punt returned for a TD vs. Tampa) respectively.

That said, they have not faced an offense like the Saints that was also clicking. SD was terrible week one, but their other 3 wins were against the Bears, Falcons and Chiefs, the latter of which have the AFC's 2nd worst offense.

Carolina's ability to win relies on the consistency of its offense. In their 4 wins, The Panthers have averaged 362 total yards and 26 points, compared to only 242 yards per game and a combined 10 points in 2 losses.

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New Orleans is 3-3 and had a serious chance at winning in each of its defeats. The Saints' suspect secondary was exploited late against the Redskins, and Martin Gramatica's kicking woes contributed to defeats against both the Broncos and Vikings.

Drew Brees has put up gaudy numbers this season and is on pace for more than 5300 yards, a total that would top Dan Marino's single-season record. The offense was in synch Sunday against the Raiders (don't we all wish we could play Oakland every week?) but will face a tougher challenge next week against a Panthers' secondary led by CBs Chris Gamble and Ken Lucas and LB Jon Beason. Beason has proven to be tremendous in pass coverage with already 3 passes deflections and a pick.

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Both teams field a diverse, 2-headed rushing attack, but oddly enough, both teams have poor yards per carry. The Panthers average 3.6 yards while the Saints manage just 3.3.

Both teams stop the run reasonably well. The Saints and Panthers rank, respectively, 14th and 15th in rush defense.

Both offensive lines have both performed well in pass protection. The Saints' line has only allowed 6 sacks while the Panthers' unit has given up just 9, although Jake Delhomme has been hit and hurried much more in the losses when their line struggled in the absence of injured tackle Jordan Gross.

Special teams play will be huge. Will Carolina kick to Reggie Bush? He has returned 3 punts for TDs this year, and Pierre Thomas has been stellar on kickoff returns. The Panthers have had 2 punts blocked and returned for TDs, including one in last week's loss to Tampa Bay.

KEY STATS

Penalties could be a deciding factor in Sunday's meeting. Carolina is the NFL's most penalized offense with 51 flags for 323 yards. The Saints have 44 penalties for 412 yards.

The game could also hang on which can convert 3rd downs. Opponents convert just 1/3 of 3rd down attempts on either defense. Carolina's offense doesn't fair any better than that mark, while the Saints are the league's 2nd best 3rd down team, converting 49% of the time.

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PREDICTION:

Saints 30
Panthers 23