re: Miami's Pro Day today

Bro Bailey is a bigger red flag that can’t change his direction. Bain is a complete player

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If another prospect (with this many questions) was opting out of the testing like this……they would be getting DRUUUUUUGGGGG by the sports media.

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Tyler Warren never ran for scouts and was drafted 14th at a much less valuable position. He was outstanding when he had a QB

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I’m coming to the conclusion Bain won’t last past Saints. Likely never gets to 8.

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He was already plummeting down boards because of the lack of twitch/burst/short arms but you’re now thinking, after he refuses to test at his pro day, he doesn’t even get to us?

that doesn’t logically make sense to me

He has power but not burst

I’m not the only that that sees that, the former PFF guys that started 33rd team are saying the same thing. Think they talked about it yesterday in their you tube channel. And they make excuses for the short arms so not giving you a biased source (claim combine is short measurements but don’t realize there is incentive for pro days to be longer)

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He has power but not burst

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Guys who are atypical size-wise who do well in the NFL almost always have outlier athleticism to make them a unicorn of sorts with outlier explosiveness to make up for their size profile. Dwight Freeney, Aaron Donald, Calijah Kancey, etc.

A guy like Bain is is over-reliant on power, who is the physical outlier (to his detriment) who lacks this explosiveness is going to have issues. To engage power effectively you have to use your arms to control the opponent. Bain is going to lose the arm battle literally every matchup (and sometimes by 4-5 inches). He's almost an exclusive bull rush guy, too, without the ability to get around the edge and go power to speed.

The fact he had better technique and motor in college isn't something that projects/scales in the NFL, because he loses that advantage in the NFL where everybody has technique and a motor.

I just don't get it. His #1 trait (power) is somewhat neutralized by his physical limitations, and his other advantages in college become a wash in the NFL.

Can he be some high-effort rotational piece off the bench? Possibly.

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A guy like Bain is is over-reliant on power

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Agreed and this is a problem because he’s also a lot smaller than people thought, coming in at 263 when he was listed at 280. If power is your game and you aren’t big enough to not get moved, what are we doing picking you that high?

his frame (6’2”) isn’t able to hold that weight and maintain speed. He may have tried to drop it to run faster but then he didn’t even do that

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Can he be some high-effort rotational piece off the bench? Possibly.

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always a chance but hopefully we don’t take the gamble. He could even become a superstar and I think it’s still the right decision to pass with the info we have now

Chad based off the historical data for people with his arms, that is a generous projection. pretty much all similarly-armed players just wash out of the league entirely.

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If anything, those in the 31-32 inch category fared best. This group is highlighted by Trey Hendrickson and Micah Parsons — the former was a relatively overlooked 103rd overall draft pick, and the latter was an athletic freak initially pegged to play off-ball linebacker.

However, when you dip below 31 inches, things start to look much more bleak. Kyle Van Noy is the only proven success story among this group. Of the 64 sacks these short-armed edge defenders have recorded in the PFF era, Van Noy accounts for over half of them. It’s worth noting that Van Noy’s arms measured almost a full inch longer than Rueben Bain’s.

The remainder of this group hardly inspires confidence. The only other sub-31-inch edge defenders to even see 500 career pass-rush snaps in the PFF era are Genard Avery and Matt Longacre. If Bain were to move inside, he’d be compared to a similarly unremarkable group headlined by players like Dean Lowry and Calijah Kancey.

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Rotational effort piece off the bench is a compliment compared to 500 career snaps being an outlier positive situation.



PFF

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Then why is Bain going to be a top 10 pick of the nfl draft?

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Not to be a smart arse but so was Shedeur last year. I don’t think Bain goes in the top 10, maybe 12-20 as my prediction

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Then why is Bain going to be a top 10 pick of the nfl draft?

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This is not a strong draft, particularly at the most valuable positions, and many NFL teams are great at deluding/convincing themselves they can make it work (or coach up other guys who are obvious likely busts).

The smart move is to trade down, especially in a scenario like this. You won't see that by many teams though b/c GMs want to sell immediate improvement and this bites them in the arse more often than it works. They are also arrogant and think their scouting can out-pace the data, which has been shown over the long haul to not work. This is why Loomis has such issues in the draft, historically, with his trade up strategy.

So they had him in coverage?

He didn't do physical testing but did coverage drills? What a world.