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Started By
Message
re: Balance The Saints Cap
Posted on 2/13/14 at 10:39 pm to bonethug0108
Posted on 2/13/14 at 10:39 pm to bonethug0108
quote:
So what moves are you going to make?
What I did in the little game thingy:
-Convert $4m of Brees base salary to signing bonus
-Extended Strief to 3 year, $10m deal: such a big guessing game here. RTs are weird contract wise. Strief could sign a 4yr/$17m type deal in FA or a 3y/$8m type deal with us and neither would shock me. Here, I did a $3m signing bonus, guaranteed $2m first and secondyear salaries, non-guaranteed $2m third year salary (wasn't an option on the tool, but with a $1m roster bonus). Not that anything after this year makes a difference with the cap tool, but it seemed reasonable for him.
-Tagged Graham at $6m
-Picked up Harris's exclusive rights (dirt cheap)
-Original round tendered Bush ($1.3m). The $1.33m would be about the same he would make elsewhere, but with our letting Harper go and likely not re-signing Jenkins, he knows that his best chance at a $3m+/yr deal would be playing another year here as a starter or, more likely, the third safety on a team that runs a lot of 3 safety sets.
-Post June 1st cut Bunkley. Tough choice.
-Cut Lance Moore: Ditto.
-Cut Pierre Thomas
-Don't pick up Morgan's round drafted tender: I think we can re-sign him at vet min if desired, saving us ~$800k.
That leaves us without a center but otherwise in good shape in terms of major needs. That also leaves us with a smidge over $6m in cap space to get our 2014 version of Keenan Lewis/Curtis Lofton (surprisingly good FA with little cap room, thinking someone like Donald Butler or MAYBE Chris Clemons) without touching Grubbs/Colston/Evans. Start playing with their contracts if you have a good chance at getting a guy like Hakeem Nicks on a 1yr/$3m type deal (plus it would be amazing having Hakeem Nicks and Akiem Hicks on the same team).
1
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:01 pm to THRILLHO
Yeah the biggest thing with it is trying to guesstimate a guy's value.
Not sure how the RT market is, but Strief could honestly go for as little as vet minimum(if the market is crowded; I'd still be surprised by this though), or as much as $6 mil a year(again I'd be surprised if it was this much though). I think $2.5 mil - $4.5 mil per is a good range for him.
I can see us going the cutting route also, but I think we'll likely see a mix of that and restructuring given past history. And we've already done some cutting(though I can see at least one and as many as four more guys getting cut).
I think another thing to keep in mind is we'll likely save at least $2 mil if/when Sproles extends.
I definitely see we value guys differently though. If it was my choice I'm not cutting Thomas period. I'd like him to extend or at least take a pay cut, but IMO he is worth the $3 mil.
I could also see a scenario where we let Strief walk regardless since Harris and Jones are so cheap and Harris at least has experience. Just depends on how much we trust him.
Personally I trust him more than I trusted Brown, who then fooled me into trusting him in preseason before becoming what I thought he was.
I think we'll likely have to look to the draft/Lelito for C unless DLP/someone else comes in for dirt cheap.
CB is clearly the biggest hole, but if we can structure a deal like Lewis($2.25 mil cap hit year 1) and he's at least on Greer's level(but young) I'll be happy with whoever.
Another thing is it's also like dominoes. Doing one thing is going to set off a chain reaction. Doing something different instead changes the chain completely.
Not sure how the RT market is, but Strief could honestly go for as little as vet minimum(if the market is crowded; I'd still be surprised by this though), or as much as $6 mil a year(again I'd be surprised if it was this much though). I think $2.5 mil - $4.5 mil per is a good range for him.
I can see us going the cutting route also, but I think we'll likely see a mix of that and restructuring given past history. And we've already done some cutting(though I can see at least one and as many as four more guys getting cut).
I think another thing to keep in mind is we'll likely save at least $2 mil if/when Sproles extends.
I definitely see we value guys differently though. If it was my choice I'm not cutting Thomas period. I'd like him to extend or at least take a pay cut, but IMO he is worth the $3 mil.
I could also see a scenario where we let Strief walk regardless since Harris and Jones are so cheap and Harris at least has experience. Just depends on how much we trust him.
Personally I trust him more than I trusted Brown, who then fooled me into trusting him in preseason before becoming what I thought he was.
I think we'll likely have to look to the draft/Lelito for C unless DLP/someone else comes in for dirt cheap.
CB is clearly the biggest hole, but if we can structure a deal like Lewis($2.25 mil cap hit year 1) and he's at least on Greer's level(but young) I'll be happy with whoever.
Another thing is it's also like dominoes. Doing one thing is going to set off a chain reaction. Doing something different instead changes the chain completely.
This post was edited on 2/13/14 at 11:03 pm
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:17 pm to bonethug0108
quote:
I definitely see we value guys differently though. If it was my choice I'm not cutting Thomas period. I'd like him to extend or at least take a pay cut, but IMO he is worth the $3 mil.
He's obviously not in the "no cut" territory for me, but it depends on what we can do in FA. I think that if they can add that semi-young, above average FA at a position where it will make a big difference (WR, S, ILB, CB), then I think cutting Thomas will be considered. He had a disappointing year, but I think Sproles is more important to the offense. Plus, between PT, Ivory, and to a lesser extent Khiry, we have a history of finding effective UDFA RBs. I know Ingram and Khiry are question marks in terms of blocking pass rushers, but I think that a more effective run game will make up for that. But I do think that PT at $3m would be a no brainer for ~25 teams in the NFL. The Browns are supposedly all on the Ben Tate bandwagon in FA, but if PT is cut, they would be wise to pick him up.
And I wouldn't allow Lelito to be our starting C. He was awful last season. If it comes to Lelito starting or eating into Colston/Grubbs/Evans's base salaries, that would be a situation that I think definitely merits restructuring to free up space for a legit starter.
This post was edited on 2/13/14 at 11:21 pm
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:24 pm to bonethug0108
has anyone considered cutting cadet if we were to keep pt, ingram, sproles, and khiry?
saves us 570k. not much, but still 570k more than we had before for a player we sparingly use.
saves us 570k. not much, but still 570k more than we had before for a player we sparingly use.
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:26 pm to htran90
quote:
saves us 570k. not much, but still 570k more than we had before for a player we sparingly use.
And he has to be replaced with someone else. Cutting Cadet would, at best, save ~$150k.
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:28 pm to THRILLHO
Yeah I agree that Lelito is likely too green to start full time. But we may roll the dice in the draft with a deep C class(from what I've heard) instead of signing a free agent.
But if we do roll with Lelito, I lean towards trusting the staff thinking he's ready, but I won't forget the Brown fiasco.
But if we do roll with Lelito, I lean towards trusting the staff thinking he's ready, but I won't forget the Brown fiasco.
Posted on 2/13/14 at 11:38 pm to THRILLHO
quote:
And he has to be replaced with someone else. Cutting Cadet would, at best, save ~$150k.
Yup. htran, every person you cut has to be replaced and the cheapest you can get is a rookie for $420,000(which is where thrillho got his number from). You'd save $75,000 by signing someone with 1 year accumulated($495,000 minimum).
Basically nobody below Watson is going to save us money by being cut, and even then only guys from PT and up in the list would save $2 mil or more(some with June 1st cuts and even still a few save less).
The list of realistic cuts are Bunkley(June 1st only), Moore, Sproles, and Thomas. VERY slim chance Hawthorne gets cut(June 1st only).
Everyone else is worth the money or more. Given the fact that it was said they are working on a Sproles extension, that leaves Bunkley, Moore, and Thomas as the guys that are realistically on the bubble(basically the guys thrillho cut in his mock).
This post was edited on 2/13/14 at 11:40 pm
Posted on 2/14/14 at 12:24 am to bonethug0108
quote:
Yup. htran, every person you cut has to be replaced and the cheapest you can get is a rookie for $420,000(which is where thrillho got his number from). You'd save $75,000 by signing someone with 1 year accumulated($495,000 minimum).
Basically nobody below Watson is going to save us money by being cut, and even then only guys from PT and up in the list would save $2 mil or more(some with June 1st cuts and even still a few save less).
The list of realistic cuts are Bunkley(June 1st only), Moore, Sproles, and Thomas. VERY slim chance Hawthorne gets cut(June 1st only).
Everyone else is worth the money or more. Given the fact that it was said they are working on a Sproles extension, that leaves Bunkley, Moore, and Thomas as the guys that are realistically on the bubble(basically the guys thrillho cut in his mock).
I forgot that usually minimal salary was 420k lol my mistake. I kept thinking it was like 200
I think cutting bunkley, moore, and thomas are the only ones we could really get away with (maybe prob too). I think hawthorne will be a casualty next year, not this year with his contract.
This post was edited on 2/14/14 at 12:28 am
Posted on 2/16/14 at 1:53 pm to bonethug0108
Found this article and it may give you some ideas:
LINK
I knew we did quite a few restructures last year. Turns out it was 6 guys for a total of $13 mil pushed back into 2014, 2015, and 2016 depending on the player.
Those guys were:
Evans
Grubbs
Colston
Bunkley
Lofton
Hawthorne
Looking at those guys, only Evans, Grubbs, Colston, and Bunkley save real money this year to make a difference by restructuring, so Lofton and Hawthorne are out.
Add to that group Brees(a huge chunk), Moore, and Lewis as guys that save enough to at least be considered.
I haven't considered Lewis before and I have no idea why. He saves almost $2 mil, the hit could be spread thin($500,000ish in each of the next 4 years), and he isn't going anywhere.
But looking at age/production, I think only Brees, Evans, Grubbs(if they think he's worth it), Colston, and Lewis would be considered. All the hits could be spread out over 3 years counting this year(except for Lewis which could be over 4 as stated previously).
Bunkley and Moore are getting older, have replacements in place, and are in time shares. They are more likely to be asked to take pay cuts or get cut.
They also talked about other potential cuts, but I'm just listing them because they have explanations for each one(their numbers for Bunkley and Moore are as June 1st cuts and they are incorrect about Bunkley's dead money; it would be $3.2 mil next year not spread out into 2016):
Bunkley
Moore
Sproles
Thomas
Robinson(which I again disagree with because $1.3 mil isn't going to get you another nickel/potential starting corner)
They first two are potential June 1st cuts(though Moore can be cut outright and still save $2.5 mil) while the others are on their last year.
LINK
I knew we did quite a few restructures last year. Turns out it was 6 guys for a total of $13 mil pushed back into 2014, 2015, and 2016 depending on the player.
Those guys were:
Evans
Grubbs
Colston
Bunkley
Lofton
Hawthorne
Looking at those guys, only Evans, Grubbs, Colston, and Bunkley save real money this year to make a difference by restructuring, so Lofton and Hawthorne are out.
Add to that group Brees(a huge chunk), Moore, and Lewis as guys that save enough to at least be considered.
I haven't considered Lewis before and I have no idea why. He saves almost $2 mil, the hit could be spread thin($500,000ish in each of the next 4 years), and he isn't going anywhere.
But looking at age/production, I think only Brees, Evans, Grubbs(if they think he's worth it), Colston, and Lewis would be considered. All the hits could be spread out over 3 years counting this year(except for Lewis which could be over 4 as stated previously).
Bunkley and Moore are getting older, have replacements in place, and are in time shares. They are more likely to be asked to take pay cuts or get cut.
They also talked about other potential cuts, but I'm just listing them because they have explanations for each one(their numbers for Bunkley and Moore are as June 1st cuts and they are incorrect about Bunkley's dead money; it would be $3.2 mil next year not spread out into 2016):
Bunkley
Moore
Sproles
Thomas
Robinson(which I again disagree with because $1.3 mil isn't going to get you another nickel/potential starting corner)
They first two are potential June 1st cuts(though Moore can be cut outright and still save $2.5 mil) while the others are on their last year.
This post was edited on 2/16/14 at 2:07 pm
Posted on 2/16/14 at 3:49 pm to bonethug0108
I don't think I threw out these numbers before, but here are the future cap implications of restructuring some of these guys if we decide next year we want to cut them:
Evans
2014- drops from $11m to $6.7m
2015- cut saves $3.9m w/$9.3m dead money
June 1st cut saves $7.5m w/$5.6m dead money and $3.6m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Plausible but not attractive June 1st cut next year. More likely to stand pat/restructure next year(regular, extension, and/or paycut), and then can be cut in 2016.
Grubbs
2014- drops from $9.1m to $5.7m
2015- cut saves $1.9m w/$9.4m dead money
June 1st cut saves $6.6m w/$4.7m dead money and $4.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Exactly the same as Evans with slight money variations.
Colston
2014- drops from $8.3m to 5.2m
2015- cut saves $2.8m w/$8.5m dead money
June 1st cut saves $7m w/$4.3m dead money and $4.3m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Slightly more attractive than Evans and Grubbs as a June 1st cut, but otherwise the same.
Lewis
2014- drops from $4.6m to $2.6m
2015- cut saves $965k w/$5.5m dead money
June 1st cut saves $4.7m w/$1.8m dead money and $3.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Possible June 1st cut if he somehow regresses terribly. But he is young and cheap so he actually makes sense as a restructure even though the savings aren't great.
Brees
2014- drops from $18.4m to $11.9m
2015- cut saves $8.3m w/$21.3m dead money
June 1st cut saves $19m w/$10.7m dead money and $10.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: While we are obviously going to extend him and stretch the money out that way, he is an attractive June 1st cut if we are desperate for money and he suddenly becomes a shell, but keep in mind we'll lose $10m in space in 2016.
Evans
2014- drops from $11m to $6.7m
2015- cut saves $3.9m w/$9.3m dead money
June 1st cut saves $7.5m w/$5.6m dead money and $3.6m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Plausible but not attractive June 1st cut next year. More likely to stand pat/restructure next year(regular, extension, and/or paycut), and then can be cut in 2016.
Grubbs
2014- drops from $9.1m to $5.7m
2015- cut saves $1.9m w/$9.4m dead money
June 1st cut saves $6.6m w/$4.7m dead money and $4.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Exactly the same as Evans with slight money variations.
Colston
2014- drops from $8.3m to 5.2m
2015- cut saves $2.8m w/$8.5m dead money
June 1st cut saves $7m w/$4.3m dead money and $4.3m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Slightly more attractive than Evans and Grubbs as a June 1st cut, but otherwise the same.
Lewis
2014- drops from $4.6m to $2.6m
2015- cut saves $965k w/$5.5m dead money
June 1st cut saves $4.7m w/$1.8m dead money and $3.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: Possible June 1st cut if he somehow regresses terribly. But he is young and cheap so he actually makes sense as a restructure even though the savings aren't great.
Brees
2014- drops from $18.4m to $11.9m
2015- cut saves $8.3m w/$21.3m dead money
June 1st cut saves $19m w/$10.7m dead money and $10.7m dead money in 2016
Conclusion: While we are obviously going to extend him and stretch the money out that way, he is an attractive June 1st cut if we are desperate for money and he suddenly becomes a shell, but keep in mind we'll lose $10m in space in 2016.
Posted on 2/17/14 at 9:34 am to bonethug0108
thanks for doing the work bone
hope all will try to get just some sense of the capology involved as free agency approaches
hope all will try to get just some sense of the capology involved as free agency approaches
Posted on 2/17/14 at 11:14 am to blueslover
No problem. I do it for myself because I'm curious and then figure why not post it because others may be also.
Posted on 2/22/14 at 10:25 pm to bonethug0108
Alright let's change things up here and play a little game of "How in the frick are the Cowboys going to get under the cap?!?"
LINK
Yeah good luck with this one.
Edit:
And remember, June 1st cuts don't apply until June 1st and they need to be under the cap by March 11th. So only regular cuts apply when cutting guys.
Edit2:
So they are likely going to have to restructure Romo which then makes me question WTF the GM was thinking when structuring the deal in the first place.
Restructured Romo, Carr, Lee, and Scandrick. I chose the last 3 because they're the youngest out of the guys that make sense to restructure and Romo because he isn't going anywhere and saves the most.
That puts them $1m below the cap with more work to do to make room for draft picks and if they want to sign FAs.
LINK
Yeah good luck with this one.
Edit:
And remember, June 1st cuts don't apply until June 1st and they need to be under the cap by March 11th. So only regular cuts apply when cutting guys.
Edit2:
So they are likely going to have to restructure Romo which then makes me question WTF the GM was thinking when structuring the deal in the first place.
Restructured Romo, Carr, Lee, and Scandrick. I chose the last 3 because they're the youngest out of the guys that make sense to restructure and Romo because he isn't going anywhere and saves the most.
That puts them $1m below the cap with more work to do to make room for draft picks and if they want to sign FAs.
This post was edited on 2/22/14 at 10:40 pm
Posted on 2/22/14 at 10:47 pm to bonethug0108
On the flip side of the Cowboys, the Eagles are scary as shite.
LINK
$23.7m in space with only Allen, Thornton, and Cooper as their FA starters. I don't see any of them breaking the bank either.
Not to mention they were a playoff team last year.
LINK
$23.7m in space with only Allen, Thornton, and Cooper as their FA starters. I don't see any of them breaking the bank either.
Not to mention they were a playoff team last year.
This post was edited on 2/22/14 at 10:53 pm
Posted on 2/22/14 at 10:50 pm to bonethug0108
and they can cut demeco ryans to save 6.9mil as well (iirc, he played pretty average for them last year)
This post was edited on 2/22/14 at 10:51 pm
Posted on 2/22/14 at 10:55 pm to htran90
That's correct. Damn the Eagles could build themselves a Dream Team(crosses fingers for one of their players to say that again 
).
).Posted on 3/4/14 at 12:35 pm to bonethug0108
quote:
So they are likely going to have to restructure Romo which then makes me question WTF the GM was thinking when structuring the deal in the first place.
LINK
Yup, Jerrah is a dumb arse.
Edit:
Restructured 3 of the 4 I said.
This post was edited on 3/4/14 at 12:38 pm
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