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2010 Saints First Round Draft Board
Posted on 4/19/10 at 9:36 am
Posted on 4/19/10 at 9:36 am
I've done a lot of mockology in years past and done pretty well in forecasting Saints first rounders. At #32 the variables are simply too many to nail it very tight. You know there will be multiple trades to alter the situation. The best I'm looking at this year is what chance range players fall into based on talent and scenarios. Honing it in as we get down to days...
0% Chance of Availability but Definite Targets
--Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech 0%, most consistent pure pass rusher in draft, probably gone by #12. If he somehow fell into the 20's he could be a consideration for a trade up.
--Dan Williams/Jared Odrick, don't place any faith in anyone projecting these guys available at #32. Great ballers that also could be on the possible list if they fell far enough to get into trade up range.
10-25% Chance of Happening
--Brandon Graham, Michigan I call him a Freeny-esque clone. If things fell just right he has a very slight chance of reaching #32. It would take some like Griffen, Dunlap, McCourty, Nate Allen, Bruce Campbell, and Brian Price types being taken.
--Sean Weatherspoon, Mizzou If ya don't know him you must be very new to the bandwagon. I give slightly better odds of him being available. LB's always seem to fade back in the first round. A key will be for teams like Atlanta and Philly to have higher rated defensive players still on the board. Consider it continued favor from the football gods if it happens.
--Maurkice Pouncey, Florida Some might not like the position and he'll likely be gone already. He could end up being a must take choice as BPA if he was there though. Goodwin will be 32 and we have no legit backup guard anymore. Evan-Pouncey-Nicks could be a historically dominant interior for a long time.
--Nate Allen, South Florida Much more likely available. I just dunno if they would have him pegged that high. With the front D front 7 needs it's unlikely but wouldn't be a shocker either. If him, there's no worry about what Sharper decides.
50/50% Guys that could be or not be available or taken or passed on at #32
--Dunlap, Florida I liked one report that summarized- Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. Too much risk IMO. Predicting he free falls into Rd 2
--Griffen, USC Similar lack of game tape ballin'. Flashy and talented though. If they took him I'd say yeah. If they passed on him just the same.
--Brian Price, UCLA one of the more popular names mentioned that I'm not excited about. Seems like one of those DTs that could get stuck in the buffet line while taking the money. If they took him I'd just say they know better than I.
--Jerry Hughes, TCU Prolly the one I like most of these at 50/50. Kinda 3-4 hybridish but I think GW could scheme him in as a disrupting force.
Available But Do They Take?
--Daryl Washington, TCU good guy but a bit of a stretch at 32. I'd like him but wouldn't be disappointed if they traded back with him on the board.
--Tyson Alualu, Cal similar to Washington, solid player but I dunno if you could go #32 with him
--Bob Gronkowski, Arizona He could be in BPA range and I'm leery of Payton's lust for endless offensive weapons.
0% Chance of Availability but Definite Targets
--Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech 0%, most consistent pure pass rusher in draft, probably gone by #12. If he somehow fell into the 20's he could be a consideration for a trade up.
--Dan Williams/Jared Odrick, don't place any faith in anyone projecting these guys available at #32. Great ballers that also could be on the possible list if they fell far enough to get into trade up range.
10-25% Chance of Happening
--Brandon Graham, Michigan I call him a Freeny-esque clone. If things fell just right he has a very slight chance of reaching #32. It would take some like Griffen, Dunlap, McCourty, Nate Allen, Bruce Campbell, and Brian Price types being taken.
--Sean Weatherspoon, Mizzou If ya don't know him you must be very new to the bandwagon. I give slightly better odds of him being available. LB's always seem to fade back in the first round. A key will be for teams like Atlanta and Philly to have higher rated defensive players still on the board. Consider it continued favor from the football gods if it happens.
--Maurkice Pouncey, Florida Some might not like the position and he'll likely be gone already. He could end up being a must take choice as BPA if he was there though. Goodwin will be 32 and we have no legit backup guard anymore. Evan-Pouncey-Nicks could be a historically dominant interior for a long time.
--Nate Allen, South Florida Much more likely available. I just dunno if they would have him pegged that high. With the front D front 7 needs it's unlikely but wouldn't be a shocker either. If him, there's no worry about what Sharper decides.
50/50% Guys that could be or not be available or taken or passed on at #32
--Dunlap, Florida I liked one report that summarized- Looks like Tarzan, plays like Jane. Too much risk IMO. Predicting he free falls into Rd 2
--Griffen, USC Similar lack of game tape ballin'. Flashy and talented though. If they took him I'd say yeah. If they passed on him just the same.
--Brian Price, UCLA one of the more popular names mentioned that I'm not excited about. Seems like one of those DTs that could get stuck in the buffet line while taking the money. If they took him I'd just say they know better than I.
--Jerry Hughes, TCU Prolly the one I like most of these at 50/50. Kinda 3-4 hybridish but I think GW could scheme him in as a disrupting force.
Available But Do They Take?
--Daryl Washington, TCU good guy but a bit of a stretch at 32. I'd like him but wouldn't be disappointed if they traded back with him on the board.
--Tyson Alualu, Cal similar to Washington, solid player but I dunno if you could go #32 with him
--Bob Gronkowski, Arizona He could be in BPA range and I'm leery of Payton's lust for endless offensive weapons.
7
Posted on 4/19/10 at 9:45 am to blueslover
I would love to grab Pouncey. Most people wouldn't want him because there is no flash to the center position. But this is a draft where almost the whole first and second rounds will not be flashy.
This draft fits directly into what the Saints need. Defensive front seven help, a little secondary help, possible OL help, mid to late round offensive weapon help (RB, TE, QB).
Some people might be saying that the Saints are in a bad position because there could be no big time guy left for them at 32, but I think it is just the opposite. The Saints are in great spot.
As far as Washington being a reach, I'm not sure. I say, if the guy fits your scheme, TAKE HIM. I remember the Pats in '08 selecting Mayo 10th overall. Most people, including I, thought that was way too high for him to go. Result, ROY and perfect for their system.
This draft fits directly into what the Saints need. Defensive front seven help, a little secondary help, possible OL help, mid to late round offensive weapon help (RB, TE, QB).
Some people might be saying that the Saints are in a bad position because there could be no big time guy left for them at 32, but I think it is just the opposite. The Saints are in great spot.
As far as Washington being a reach, I'm not sure. I say, if the guy fits your scheme, TAKE HIM. I remember the Pats in '08 selecting Mayo 10th overall. Most people, including I, thought that was way too high for him to go. Result, ROY and perfect for their system.
This post was edited on 4/19/10 at 9:51 am
Posted on 4/19/10 at 11:19 am to jembeurt
Good work 
can we get a sticky?
can we get a sticky?Posted on 4/19/10 at 11:23 am to blueslover
quote:
blueslover
This was just a long elaborate way for you to say again that if Graham is there, you want him. We get it already.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 12:12 pm to blueslover
quote:
--Jerry Hughes, TCU Prolly the one I like most of these at 50/50. Kinda 3-4 hybridish but I think GW could scheme him in as a disrupting force.
+1
Like Washington and Alualu but a small reach at 32. None of the other probables are much to get
over. Which is why with the new format I hope we may see a trade down. Have always liked the 2nd and third round talent thats usually available and we don't need anymore large saleries. We have plenty of those coming soon. Posted on 4/19/10 at 12:41 pm to blueslover
I don't know if I agree on all of those percentages (especially Weatherspoon). Hughes, who is my first pick, keeps climbing the board. The guy is breaking into the Top 15 on a lot mocks and it's almost a sure bet that he's gone when our number comes up.
Here's a scenario for you that would completely shock the Saints Nation. What if Dez Bryant is still on the board at 32? He guy is falling faster than the Congressional approval rating.
How does Payton pass that one up? Like you said, Payton is like a kid collecting marbles when it comes to offensive weapons. I cringe at the thought, but it wouldn't be the first time Payton has done something like that!
Here's a scenario for you that would completely shock the Saints Nation. What if Dez Bryant is still on the board at 32? He guy is falling faster than the Congressional approval rating.
How does Payton pass that one up? Like you said, Payton is like a kid collecting marbles when it comes to offensive weapons. I cringe at the thought, but it wouldn't be the first time Payton has done something like that!
This post was edited on 4/19/10 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 4/19/10 at 12:43 pm to blueslover
quote:
--Jerry Hughes, TCU Prolly the one I like most of these at 50/50. Kinda 3-4 hybridish but I think GW could scheme him in as a disrupting force.
I'm pulling for this one.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 12:51 pm to adono
quote:
I don't know if I agree on all of those percentages
everyone's got an opinion, give us yours
quote:
The guy is breaking into the Top 15 on a lot mocks
I always say BEWARE OF MOCKS. Most have very little original thought and just copy what the crowd is saying.
quote:
Dez Bryant is still on the board at 32? He guy is falling faster than...
kinda the same thing to me. The people who really want him are the ones pushing the "he's off our draft board" talk. I'd give Denver +50% as his landing place at #12.
It is all certainly different and unpredictable at #32 versus Saints historical picks.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 1:02 pm to blueslover
0% Chance of Availability but Definite Targets
--Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
--Dan Williams/Jared Odrick
10-25% Chance of Happening
--Brandon Graham, Michigan--
--Nate Allen, South Florida
--Jerry Hughes, TCU
50/50% Guys that could be or not be available or taken or passed on at #32
--Griffen, USC
--Brian Price, UCLA
--Sean Weatherspoon, Mizzou
--Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
Available But Do They Take?
--Daryl Washington, TCU
--Tyson Alualu, Cal
--Bob Gronkowski, Arizona
--Dunlap, Florida
There you go. It's pretty close to your list.
--Derrick Morgan, Georgia Tech
--Dan Williams/Jared Odrick
10-25% Chance of Happening
--Brandon Graham, Michigan--
--Nate Allen, South Florida
--Jerry Hughes, TCU
50/50% Guys that could be or not be available or taken or passed on at #32
--Griffen, USC
--Brian Price, UCLA
--Sean Weatherspoon, Mizzou
--Maurkice Pouncey, Florida
Available But Do They Take?
--Daryl Washington, TCU
--Tyson Alualu, Cal
--Bob Gronkowski, Arizona
--Dunlap, Florida
There you go. It's pretty close to your list.
This post was edited on 4/19/10 at 1:17 pm
Posted on 4/19/10 at 1:24 pm to blueslover
quote:
The people who really want him are the ones pushing the "he's off our draft board" talk. I'd give Denver +50% as his landing place at #12.
Logic points to Denver; I just don't think they want to deal with another WR who has an attitude...they just got rid of one.
If he falls lower than 15, you're going to have another Crabtree situation to deal with. There's not a doubt in my mind this guy will be another "I want Top 10 money; I'm the top WR in the draft". How many teams will want to deal with that distraction?
The Saints might. If he pulls that crap, keep what we have and wait it out. If he signs early, look to move Moore.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 1:38 pm to adono
quote:
How many teams will want to deal with that distraction?
I don't like the diva scenario but I do think there are plenty of teams that seem to place very little weight on the off the field and attitude issues. The Bengals have quite a record for taking them. (my Perriloux destination guess). Even Buffalo took TO last year. Ya gotta count Singletary as a harder liner old schooler but even he yielded to talent on Crabtree. Same thing Bryant IMO. Mid 20s absolute possible low. Just my take tho.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 3:10 pm to blueslover
I'm going to laugh when the Saints take Colt McCoy because the value at the positions they wanted couldn't be had. They pulled the same thing years ago when we drafted Duece McAllister. It's a long shot but if you want my off the wall with no one of value at critical need positions, that's it.
Posted on 4/19/10 at 3:31 pm to Cajun Revolution
quote:
They pulled the same thing years ago when we drafted Duece McAllister.
Your comparison doesn't work for me. Here's why:
1. Ricky Williams was a flake and apt to do unorthodox things at any time.
2. The FO, and everyone else in the world, knew that football wasn't Williams' life and his passion; it was a means to an end.
3. The career expectancy of a RB is 2.57 years
4. You can put 2 RBs in the same backfield at one time. The same can't be said of 2 QBs...unless one of them is name Tebow, Vick, or Pat White.
This post was edited on 4/19/10 at 3:32 pm
Posted on 4/19/10 at 11:15 pm to adono
McCoy would also be nowhere near a must pick BPA at 32.
Deuce, Smith, Meachem all had over riding values that pushed them to be picked.
Deuce, Smith, Meachem all had over riding values that pushed them to be picked.
Posted on 4/20/10 at 1:58 am to blueslover
quote:
McCoy would also be nowhere near a must pick BPA at 32.
IF they picked McCoy, it wouldn't be to keep him. Since this is the first time the draft has been scheduled like this, no telling what may happen with the last pick. What if they Saints are in talks with a team that wants to trade up for McCoy, but can't quite get the deal done (or if they think an extra day of pressure on a certain front office may make them overpay for McCoy)? But I certainly don't agree that the McCoy situation would be nothing like Deuce.
As far as the board, there's most likely someone sitting on it that most of us are missing. And likewise, some guys on the list may not even be on their board. I think they'd be reluctant to take someone like Dunlap, or anyone with character/hustle concerns that early. I also don't think anyone should be shocked if they grab an offensive player. Of the 50/50 or better players, I tend to think Washington would fit in the best. He's such a good athlete and can make up ground quickly. I think he could be effective against the run and pass. I know most people tend to have Hughes ranked higher, but I think Washington might be the better player. And he certainly fits the Saints needs.
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