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Message
re: Realistic Cap Space Discussion (Need help with Numbers)
Posted on 6/21/12 at 6:19 am to ATLienTiger
Posted on 6/21/12 at 6:19 am to ATLienTiger
quote:
Thanks
So generally what does it cost to grab the big name Howard/DWill/CP3's of the league?
A NYC zip code.
0
Posted on 6/21/12 at 6:56 am to 42
quote:
The cap will be at least $58m. The tax line at least $70m. This is by fiat on the CBA for this season. Next season, stuff getsthe real without the enforced mins.
These will be set based on financials released this summer.
The above and the repeater penalty kicking in along with other restrictions for tax teams is why next offseason is so important to be flexible for.
I am no cap expert, but it's been my understanding that we'll see the real benefits of yesterday's deal next year. Lewis' buyout will be off the books, and the biggest number will what we have paid Gordon. With Ariza's and Okafor's contracts off the books that leaves a lot of room, unless there's some surprise signing for this year. Kaman, for instance . . . but I don't see it.
This post was edited on 6/21/12 at 6:57 am
Posted on 6/21/12 at 7:10 am to OBUDan
With about 12 million in cap money (not counting the 10 pick for now), I am surprised we aren't going to go after Kaman if he signs a contract for 3 or 4 years (with larger sums due after this year. Would he sign for 4 years-36 million? Seems worth it, considering this team's depth chart.
We only have 8 players for now.
PG1 Jarrett Jack-good point guard
PG2 Greivis Vasquez- very good back-up
SG1 Eric Gordon-top 5 shooting guard
SG2 Xavier Henry-awful back-up
SF1
SF2 Al Farouq Aminu-bad starter, good back-up
PF1 Anthony Davis-should be a great PF in time
PF2 Gustavo Ayon-great back-up PF with an even better contract. The one position where we are set for now
C1
C2 Jason Smith-more of a PF but can be a good back-up Center. Really shouldn't ever be starting though.
Plus about 5 cheap utility players which should cost about 3 million (?) total, maybe a bit less.
If we draft well at SF/SG and sign Kaman, which is entirely feasible financially, this is a very good team. The biggest weakness becomes depth along the perimeter, which I can live with.
We only have 8 players for now.
PG1 Jarrett Jack-good point guard
PG2 Greivis Vasquez- very good back-up
SG1 Eric Gordon-top 5 shooting guard
SG2 Xavier Henry-awful back-up
SF1
SF2 Al Farouq Aminu-bad starter, good back-up
PF1 Anthony Davis-should be a great PF in time
PF2 Gustavo Ayon-great back-up PF with an even better contract. The one position where we are set for now
C1
C2 Jason Smith-more of a PF but can be a good back-up Center. Really shouldn't ever be starting though.
Plus about 5 cheap utility players which should cost about 3 million (?) total, maybe a bit less.
If we draft well at SF/SG and sign Kaman, which is entirely feasible financially, this is a very good team. The biggest weakness becomes depth along the perimeter, which I can live with.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 7:13 am to Keys Open Doors
Cliff Notes version: We should do one of the following.
1) Sign a SF and draft a C
2) Sign Kaman (not getting a better deal on the market) and draft a SF/SG at 10.
1) Sign a SF and draft a C
2) Sign Kaman (not getting a better deal on the market) and draft a SF/SG at 10.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 7:26 am to patendedgmf
quote:
patendedgmf
Rookies can sign for up to 120% of the first-year amount (and almost always do), but also as low as 80% (never?).
First sentence on you link. And you listed scale, just like the OP. Thanks for the link.
You can verify that those are not the 120% numbers by looking at Irving"s payscale.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 7:27 am to VOR
Agreed 100%, VOR.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:06 am to ATLienTiger
quote:
So how are we going to be able to sign not 1 but 2 big name FA's next year, if we can't/or just barely can afford the 1 max deal of a single big name FA?
How much gets freed up a year from now, and where is that coming from? TIA, i'm def not NBA financials savvy
Already answered, but you have, at minimum, 19,280,000 coming off the books for next year. At that point, our only financial commitments will likely be Gordon, Davis, 10th pick, 46th pick, and then we have modest team options on Aminu, Henry, Ayon, and Vasquez.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:15 am to 42
quote:
Rookies usually make 120% of what you listed.
LINK
Are these figures correct?
quote:
You also need to factor in cap holds. Also, once you use cap space directly, you can't use exceptions until later. So be careful with your move planning.
This is where I'm fuzzy. How do the holds work?
Also, still fuzzy on whether or not Gordon's hit is allowed to go over cap, due to the Bird's Rights?
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:16 am to VOR
quote:
I am no cap expert, but it's been my understanding that we'll see the real benefits of yesterday's deal next year.
Yes, that is my inclination as well. But that's part of why I wanted to do this exercise/research.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:18 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
1) Sign a SF and draft a C
2) Sign Kaman (not getting a better deal on the market) and draft a SF/SG at 10.
When I first saw the trade, I thought for sure that meant they were hoping to re-ink Kaman. I know management loves him, the fans like him, he plays hard, and would be a good veteran presence.
But now, I'm not sure the FO is thinking that way. He would obviously make the team better in the short-term, but I'm not sure he's worth the investment long-term.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:32 am to OBUDan
quote:
LINK
Are these figures correct?
Those are the 100% numbers. You can offer anything to a rookie within 120% of that and it almost always is. So, Davis will make over $5m, for example.
We can go over the cap, start over the cap and stay over it, to sign Gordon. Bird rights, exactly.
Cap holds work this way, roughly. We'll ignore numbers for now. Let's say a max guy is on your team and you are right at the cap. When he expires, you can use that max room to sign a new max guy. Do so. Ok, now you can resign the other max guy. Next time, you have two max expirings, etc. and soon you have 15 max guys and win everything.
This is bad in the long run for the NBA.
So a cap hold is put in place. This adds `fake' salary to your cap figures to chew up your cap space for some purposes. You can clear it by renouncing your rights to the original player . . . but now you can't sign him using THAT exception. You'd have to use another.
Does that help?
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:36 am to 42
quote:
Those are the 100% numbers. You can offer anything to a rookie within 120% of that and it almost always is. So, Davis will make over $5m, for example.
Gotcha.
quote:
So a cap hold is put in place. This adds `fake' salary to your cap figures to chew up your cap space for some purposes. You can clear it by renouncing your rights to the original player . . . but now you can't sign him using THAT exception. You'd have to use another.
Does that help?
Yes, so how do I know who those are?
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:55 am to OBUDan
I don't see how we are going to get a better center than Kaman, unfortunately.
At least not without a ton of luck in the draft or without overpaying for someone else in free agency.
With a contract that is heavy on the back-end, we could pay Kaman now (assuming I have his market value correct) and not go over the cap.
The one problem with the draft is that it's weak at SF. Harkless is one of the best guys available, but even he may be a reach at 10. I don't know who could be an instant starter from the group except maybe Terrance Jones.
At least not without a ton of luck in the draft or without overpaying for someone else in free agency.
With a contract that is heavy on the back-end, we could pay Kaman now (assuming I have his market value correct) and not go over the cap.
The one problem with the draft is that it's weak at SF. Harkless is one of the best guys available, but even he may be a reach at 10. I don't know who could be an instant starter from the group except maybe Terrance Jones.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 9:59 am to VOR
I don't understand why you rationalists (VOR, Jester, 42) are playing it so close to the vest.
If you have the cap room to go after Deron Williams and a roster that would be appealing to him, you'd be silly not to offer him a max offer and hope he bites.
It's not like 3 years from now you're going to look back and say "wow, we'd really be title contenders if we hadn't paid that Deron Williams cat $16 million per season".
Plus, it follows the Benson/Loomis Saints rebuild plan. You buy a leader (Brees / Deron Williams). He's a "free" asset (no draft pick needed) that fits in every way imaginable.
Give me ONE good reason why you don't offer Deron Williams the max this offseason. It's not like something better is going to come down the road later on. And we'd be a 50 win team this year.
If you have the cap room to go after Deron Williams and a roster that would be appealing to him, you'd be silly not to offer him a max offer and hope he bites.
It's not like 3 years from now you're going to look back and say "wow, we'd really be title contenders if we hadn't paid that Deron Williams cat $16 million per season".
Plus, it follows the Benson/Loomis Saints rebuild plan. You buy a leader (Brees / Deron Williams). He's a "free" asset (no draft pick needed) that fits in every way imaginable.
Give me ONE good reason why you don't offer Deron Williams the max this offseason. It's not like something better is going to come down the road later on. And we'd be a 50 win team this year.
This post was edited on 6/21/12 at 10:03 am
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:07 am to Keys Open Doors
quote:
I don't see how we are going to get a better center than Kaman, unfortunately.
They won't. I just think they might look at a cheaper vet + draft pick for the time being.
10th pick should say a good bit about what they are thinking, I believe.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:09 am to MinnesotaTiger
quote:
Give me ONE good reason why you don't offer Deron Williams the max this offseason. It's not like something better is going to come down the road later on. And we'd be a 50 win team this year.
Offering him and him taking our offer are two different things.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:18 am to OBUDan
He'd literally be a retard if he turns down a max deal and a supporting cast of Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, #10 pick and cap room to recruit a stud next offseason.
He'd be Tony Parker in 2007 with this lineup and cap space.
He'd be Tony Parker in 2007 with this lineup and cap space.
This post was edited on 6/21/12 at 10:20 am
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:29 am to MinnesotaTiger
quote:
I don't understand why you rationalists (VOR, Jester, 42) are playing it so close to the vest.
I'm touched. That's way better than weirdo...
Why not offer? We may have blown the space this summer by thayt point for on and with Gordon's cap hold (should we make the almost certain offer) etc., I haven't even worked out if we can make this offer.
I don't think a max here is more enticing than one in Dallas, for instance, so make.plans elsewhere on higher probability moves in a deeper market next season.
Imagine if the Hornets were worse adter Chris' rookie year and we had another high pick and hit on it. Top 10. World of difference on the court, but sadly, likely not off.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:31 am to MinnesotaTiger
quote:
He'd literally be a retard if he turns down a max deal and a supporting cast of Eric Gordon, Anthony Davis, #10 pick and cap room to recruit a stud next offseason.
If he were smart, he wouldn't have ended up in Jersey.
Throwing tantrums in Utah that caused Jerry Sloan to quit, combined with the Melo-drama, caused the team to ship him out ASAP rather than let him be a distraction for two years and walk.
Posted on 6/21/12 at 10:32 am to OBUDan
quote:
Yes, so how do I know who those are?
Technically, anyone we can resign from last year until we renounce them, plus draft picks. We can discuss the math later or you can read up on just that bit. Also, you can puzzle out who we won't bring back and assume their hold to be cleared.
This post was edited on 6/21/12 at 10:34 am
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