Variety: Why 2025 Was Such a Dud for Struggling Cinemas

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The past 12 months were supposed to turn things around for struggling cinemas. But instead of heralding a dramatic return to moviegoing, 2025 is running neck-and-neck with the middling 2024 box office, and will fall far short of the $9 billion in domestic ticket sales that most analysts expected the theatrical movie business to easily eclipse. Prior to the pandemic, North American revenues would regularly hit between $10 billion to $11 billion. The 2025 results are a massive disappointment that no amount of spin can change. (Already there’s talk of how much better 2026 will be.)

“There’s an unfortunate trend, which that we just can’t get the industry to $9 billion at the domestic box office,” says Mike Sherrill, the chief operating officer of dine-in cinema chain Alamo Drafthouse. “It looks like it’s going to be two years in a row that the industry flatlined.”

More worrisome is the reality that many of the movie business’s biggest franchises are showing signs of oversaturation or fatigue. Marvel continued to struggle with its B Team heroes; February’s “Captain America: Brave New World” and May’s “Thunderbolts” lost tens of millions during their theatrical runs, while July’s “The Fantastic Four: First Steps” will only eke out a modest profit. And even though “Avatar: Fire and Ash” ($760 million and counting), “Wicked: For Good” ($504 million) and “Jurassic World Rebirth” ($869 million) will rank among the year’s top-grossing releases, they will fail to match the revenues of previous films in their respective series. Clearly, the theatrical industry can’t thrive on sequels and spinoffs alone.

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It was a disappointing year for many adult-oriented dramas, with the likes of “The Smashing Machine,” “Bugonia” and “Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere” failing to make much of a dent at the box office. However, some studios took artistic gambles that paid off handsomely, none more so than Warner Bros., which bet on idiosyncratic horror films like Ryan Coogler’s “Sinners” and Zach Cregger’s “Weapons,” both of which attracted huge crowds after they debuted to rave reviews. And awards buzz helped another of the studio’s auteur-driven films, Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle After Another,” gross more than $200 million. The only problem: With a budget of $140 million and tens of millions spent on marketing, the film stands to lose $100 million theatrically since studios and exhibitors essentially split ticket sales.

“The good news is that when a movie catches the eye of a filmgoing audience, they are ready and excited to go. We saw all kinds of movies work this year,” says Adam Fogelson, chair of the Lionsgate Motion Picture Group. “The challenge is if you have something that, for whatever reason, doesn’t spark people’s interest, the floor is non-existent, regardless of the level of star power. You can have a movie that the audience likes and no one goes to see.”
 

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Exhibitors have, in fact, been turning to alternative content to populate their screens during the slower months. “Kill Bill” or “Back to the Future” re-releases or “Jaws” anniversary screenings have helped Alamo, for one, pace 5% ahead of the industry’s year-over-year returns. But cinema operators are keenly aware that oldies aren’t going to keep the lights on by themselves. They need Hollywood to supply the kind of new releases that turn multiplexes back into the epicenter of culture.

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