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re: Why miss the last free throw on purpose?

Posted on 4/6/10 at 3:11 pm to
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 4/6/10 at 3:11 pm to
quote:

is quite obvious they had a play called for a "miss" and it worked quite well


They had a play and it worked. But they lost a couple of seconds getting the ball and dribbling. The best they could do was a half court shot. Duke was obviously worried they could get the ball to someone near the 3 point line with the clock stopped and an inbounds pass.
Posted by lsumatt
Austin
Member since Feb 2005
12812 posts
Posted on 4/6/10 at 3:15 pm to
In the end I think:

1) If He makes the FT, Butler has a 20% chance (less than the usual 30% under ideal conditions) of making a shot right behind the arc via an inbound pass. Then they have a 50/50 shot of winning in OT. 10% overall.

2) If he misses, a prayer from half court, off balance, and running has at best a 10% shot.

It almost seems like any chance you give them to make a 3 from an inbounds pass is about twice as likely as a prayer from half court, so it is a wash. I would have made the free throw though.
This post was edited on 4/6/10 at 3:17 pm
Posted by TimeAndTide
The Promised Land
Member since Jun 2009
916 posts
Posted on 4/6/10 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Sophandros


quote:

I think you've distracted yourself with a point no one is arguing



Basically, he likes the sound of his own voice.
Posted by Dr. 3
Member since Mar 2005
11367 posts
Posted on 4/6/10 at 4:23 pm to
I like the intentional miss and think they played it right.

One guy stayed on the line to make them fight for the rebound.

Seemed like Butler should have had 3 in the paint and have an outlet guy ready to take it up the floor off a rebound.
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